Super Bowl LIV: Chiefs 31, 49ers 20

QB's Mahomes and Garoppolo after the game (Chron photo)

The local team didn't win, but it was a pretty good Super Bowl. The lead changed hands several times, and the game wasn't resolved until the 49ers had to give up the ball on downs on a must-score drive in the 4th quarter. (I suppose a "great" Super Bowl is one that features spectacular plays and a game-winning TD in the final minute.)

Also making it good: there were no questionable calls, and the losers, who were the better team for the first 54 minutes, have no one to blame but themselves for allowing the Chiefs to score the last 21 points in the game.

Also, I was happy to see good-guy Andy Reid, 61, win a Super Bowl after 22 years of being a head coach in the NFL.

The 49ers have a young team, with only a few at risk for leaving next year, and a brilliant young head coach in Kyle Shanahan. They should be contenders for years.

Wait till next year....

Sign of the Times

CVS, Foster City

In Foster City the second most common language is Chinese, not Spanish.

"Face mask out of stock" is printed, indicating the shortage is not confined to one store.

Masks are cheap, non-proprietary, and available at CVS competitors.

Expect the shortage to be rectified quickly. Hooray for capitalism.

Sunday Worship

Out (for over 200 years): unification of Church and State.

In (for this Sunday): unification of Church and football.

Politics will be forgotten this afternoon as a dozen church members gather in the Parish Hall to root for the 49ers. I will have to remember to be careful about the words I use when the local team makes a mistake.

Tête d’homme au béret,
1971, oil on canvas,

One lady who disdains football will see the Picasso exhibition at the Pace Museum in Palo Alto.

With a sizable section of the population watching the game, Super Bowl Sunday is one of the best times to play golf, shop, dine at popular restaurants (without TV screens), or drive.

It's an unofficial holiday where everyone wins, except for fans of the losing team.

Housing: It Doesn't Work if You Force It

Last year we noted how some California politicians are

trying to alleviate the housing shortage by forcing communities to accept dense housing near train stations.

SB50 would have removed control of housing development from municipalities, which through zoning regulations and onerous permitting have slowed construction.

SB50 would have eased the development of small- and medium-size apartment and condominium projects by raising height limits, removing density restrictions and reducing parking requirements.

Under the bill, cities could not have blocked residential buildings of at least four or five stories within half a mile of rail stations and ferry terminals, provided they met other local design standards. [The bill] ... would have essentially eliminated single-family zoning in California, except in small coastal communities and areas at high risk of fire.

SB50 was defeated in the State senate on Wednesday. Politically this was a classic blue-on-blue battle between State central planners and the liberal "wealthy suburbs", which don't object to the regulatory State unless it affects them (e.g., building homeless shelters and high-density housing in their communities).

Historical note: eleven years ago the Bay Meadows race track was torn down (photo right). The residential-commercial complex that arose became a prototype for the planners' vision:

the mixed-use project abutting the Hillsdale Caltrain station will comprise more than 1,100 housing units, up to 1.5 million square feet of office space, 90,000 square feet of retail space and 15 acres of parks.

The Bay Meadows prototype has been disappointing in one regard. The apartments and townhouses have been anything but low-cost (current Zillow ad, right).

2019 - 2020: Normal Winter

Shasta Lake (California's largest reservoir) last week (Chron photo)

Good news: meteorologist Michael Pechner predicts a normal winter, that is, no drought for this year.

A review of the state’s reservoir system last week with the Department of Water Resources showed that 154 significant reservoirs are 114% of average for the date...

“I’m looking at a pretty normal winter from here on out,” Pechner said, allowing for local anomalies that occur across the region.

Pechner’s long-range outlooks have been spot-on for three years running, and this winter, have contrasted against many outlooks in late summer and fall that called for drought in Northern California.

BTW, the old thinking was that global warming was responsible for extended California droughts. The new thinking is that global warming melts Arctic ice and triggers wet weather:

The [Scripps] study provides evidence that the melting ice sets in motion a chain of events, including major disruptions in wind and weather patterns at the equator and in the central Pacific Ocean. That, in turn, can trigger El Niño weather events and the violent “atmospheric rivers” that bring deluges of rain, sometimes causing havoc in the Bay Area.

The changes in atmospheric convection documented in the report could also influence occasional balmy periods during California winters that coincide with record cold in the Midwest, said Charles Kennel, a physicist and the former director of the Scripps Institution, which is based at UC San Diego.

Global warming Climate change causes droughts, record heat, and wildfires. It also causes rainstorms, snow, and record cold. There's nothing it can't do.

California Insurance Mandate: Another Reason to Leave

Tomorrow is a deadline that's largely escaped notice, but to those who are affected the financial penalties are significant. [bold added]

Californians who do not receive health insurance through their jobs or public insurance programs have until Friday to sign up for health coverage for 2020 — or face a tax penalty....California for the first time is requiring all residents to buy insurance or pay a tax penalty of $695 per adult and $347.50 per child under 18, or 2.5% of one’s annual income, whichever is higher.

It's been widely reported that Congress repealed, effective 2019, the individual mandate in the Affordable Care Act (ACA). However, that's technically not what happened; the language for the ACA's mandate was left in place while the penalties for not buying insurance were reduced to zero.

The California penalties are the same as Obamacare's (graphic from visitorscoverage.com)

The elimination of penalties at the Federal level will result in some healthy, uncovered people to choose to remain uninsured. California has reinstated the penalty at the State level and will provide subsidies to push uninsured Californians on to the rolls.

The ACA was a hoped-for step on the way to the progressive dream of universal coverage under a single-payer system. The election of Donald Trump and Republican control of Congress in 2017-2018 not only halted that effort but partially reversed it.

California Democrats, which hold the governorship and super-majorities in the state legislature, tried to pass universal health insurance in 2017. But that effort died in committee in 2017 primarily due to cost estimates in the hundreds of $billions, and no serious attempt has been made to resurrect the bill.

But back to the California version of the ACA mandates and penalties: we'll see if the populace views the benefits as being worth the costs, or whether some productive individuals will just have another reason to leave the formerly Golden State.

My betting is on the latter.

Another Sign That Newspapers Are Dead

I love newspapers, though there are problems with any individual name--similar to Linus' saying, "I love mankind, it's people I can't stand"--sorry for the digression. I spend over $500 annually on newspaper subscriptions and hundreds more on print magazines. I am also a dinosaur.

Another dinosaur, Warren Buffett, is also a newspaper lover and invested in them, probably more with his heart than his head. Today he announced that he is getting out of the business.

Warren Buffett tossed a newspaper in 2016.
In 2020 he will toss the business (WSJ photo)

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is selling its newspapers to publisher Lee Enterprises Inc. (ticker: LEE) for $140 million, a rare admission by the billionaire investor that he views his newspaper business as unsustainable.

Mr. Buffett, a lifelong newspaper lover, has said for years that Berkshire’s newspaper business declined faster than he expected. In mid-2018, Berkshire hired Lee to manage all of its newspapers except the Buffalo News.

The sale announced Wednesday includes the Buffalo News along with the dozens of newspapers that Lee already manages for Berkshire, Lee said.

...Berkshire’s newspapers have already shrunk considerably. The newspaper division and the Buffalo News employed 3,685 people at the end of 2018, down from 4,337 a year earlier, according to Berkshire’s annual reports.

Mr. Buffett’s decision to exit from the newspaper business underscores the widening divide in media between the handful of large, national players, including The Wall Street Journal, the New York Times and the Washington Post, and chains of smaller papers.

If even patient Warren Buffett has given up, then it's further evidence that only the big national and a few regional titles will survive.

Bringing it down to a personal observation, the kids won't read the free-to-them issues on the table, so they certainly won't pay for a subscription.

A couple of paragraphs caught this accountant's eye: [bold added]

As part of the sale, Berkshire is lending Lee $576 million at a 9% annual rate. Lee will use the money to pay for the acquisition, refinance its $400 million in existing debt and close its current credit facility, making Berkshire its only lender.

Berkshire’s deal with Lee is expected to close in the middle of March. Lee also said it is going to enter into a 10-year lease agreement for the media group’s real estate at an initial cost of $8 million a year.

Whenever a seller provides loans, leases, and other financial support to a weaker, smaller buyer, revenue-recognition rules come into play. If there's a significant probability that the buyer can't perform and assets and liabilities will revert to the seller, then the sale of the business is not recognized. I'm sure Berkshire Hathaway's financial advisors have vetted the sale; I'm just noting the eagerness with which Berkshire wants to go through with it.

Apple Blossoms

Apple, Shanghai: sales were unexpectedly strong in China

Last month I wrote about a sale of Apple stock in early November:

A scant two months ago I sold Apple (AAPL) at $255. It had already had a marvelous bull run in 2019 (it was at $142.19 on 1/3/2019). Today AAPL closed at $293.65.

The January 28th close was $317.69. In less than a month the stock has risen by another $24, or 8.2%. In December I said that I wasn't disappointed that I had sold early, because I still hold AAPL, and the pigs never win, yadda yadda yadda.

At $317.69, however, measured against the sale price of $255, a little seller's remorse has crept in. Repeating another Wall Street mantra provides a smidgeon of comfort: "You never go broke taking a profit."

Apple should surge even higher tomorrow. After today's close it reported that its quarterly revenue and earnings outstripped expectations.

The tech giant reported revenue rose 9% in the December quarter to $91.82 billion, driven by blossoming sales of devices and services connected to the iPhone such as smartwatches and streaming-TV subscriptions. Sales of iPhones, which account for more than half of its revenue, rose 8% to $55.96 billion.

Shares of Apple, which have more than doubled over the past year, rose 1.5% in after-hours trading.

Apple's riding high, but a little over a year ago it looked like its time had passed. The tariff war in China had just begun, with only the severity of effects on sales and production unknown. Additionally, the worldwide smartphone market was purportedly mature, and Apple was mostly an iPhone company with the most expensive model and little else to sell.

Then the company was withering, now it's blossomed. There's universal excitement about the rollout of 5G later this year, the burgeoning market for services like credit cards, streaming TV, and cloud backup, and the unexpectedly robust popularity of wearables like the Apple Watch and AirPods.

I'm thinking of selling more shares..

..

AAPL's 2020 year-to-date performance is at least triple that of the major indexes.

Puncturing the Bubble

Kobe and Gianna attended Mass
before boarding the helicopter.

This week I'd been planning to sit back, spend hours each day absorbing Super Bowl minutiae (the 49ers are in Miami), and prepare for my trip next week to the Islands. Also, the rise in the stock market has made me complacent, with no worries about finances for now.

The world has a way of puncturing one's bubble.

Yesterday and today the sports news and commentary were all about the life and death of Kobe Bryant. Listening to the Super Bowl players and coaches answer silly questions wasn't high on my list of priorities.

Meanwhile, the stock market fell sharply today because of worries about the new coronavirus. With quarantines and travel bans the Chinese authorities are behaving as if it could be bad.

Jan 27: not a good day for stocks (WSJ)

Concern about the coronavirus intensified as the tally of infections jumped over the weekend. The virus has infected more than 4,500 people and killed at least 106, mostly in China’s Hubei province. It has spread to other countries including the U.S., Japan and South Korea, and public-health officials have warned that it is growing more contagious.

Shares of tourism-related companies and those with ties to China were among the hardest hit, after the country imposed travel restrictions in response to the outbreak.

Scientists have been very cautious about issuing pronouncements because of limited sample sizes and abbreviated analyses. Here, nevertheless:

WSJ: What to Know About the New Chinese Coronavirus

Yale School of Medicine: 5 Things Everyone Should Know About the 2019 Novel Coronavirus

One thing is certain: after the 2003 SARS outbreak in China killed 774 people and triggered fears world-wide, the old saw, "when America sneezes, the world catches cold", is in need of an Asian-flavored update.

Gone Too Soon

At this morning's annual meeting the Rector announced that he will be retiring on August 1st. After 22 years in the post (the average tenure is about 10 years) he has earned his gold watch, or will it be a crucifix?

Less than 10% of the membership was here the last time we did a search, which takes at least a year given all the Diocesan procedures (we can't even start the process until he leaves, the reason being to prevent him from biasing the search--I told him no other public or private entity times it this way when there's a friendly resignation).

Facing us in the near future is hiring a new rector and a youth minister, operating with lay leadership for an extended period, and eventually accommodating to the style of the new priest. There are going to be significant changes, and there's nothing we can do to avoid them. Churches always lose members during a search.

(Chronicle photo)

The meeting ended at noon, after which someone showed us breaking news on the death of Kobe Bryant in a helicopter crash. Later the news and especially the sports channels gave his life story wall-to-wall coverage.

Even to this occasional basketball follower, the death of the 41-year-old retired L.A. Laker came us a shock. A brash 17-year-old when he entered the NBA, he won five NBA championships and was an All-Star for 18 years. But he had significant low points: 2003 sexual assault charges that were settled out of court, fallings out with players and coaches, and significant season-ending injuries (torn Achilles tendon, shoulder, knee).

As he neared retirement, Kobe Bryant's travails seemed to make him wiser, empathetic, philosophical, and charitable. He counseled young NBA players and devoted significant time and money to inculcating knowledge and values to children. He became an unofficial ambassador of the NBA worldwide and was preparing for a rich life after basketball, melding sports, entertainment, business, education, and philanthropy.

Kobe Bryant was an inspiration to youth because he demonstrated how hard work can overcome a humble origin.

But he was also an inspiration to oldsters when he showed that the inevitable changes brought on by the passage of time should be welcomed, not feared. I am sorry that he will not be here to show us how he did it.

Happy Year of the Rat

Below is a short video about the Chinese zodiac. It's produced by the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and doesn't require knowledge of the Chinese language to understand it.



Time:

The film reinterprets the legend of how the zodiac was created by the Jade Emperor, the ruler of heaven. He announced a race among all birds and beasts with the first 12 to be chosen for the 12 signs of the zodiac. In the legend, the rat arrived at the finish line first, thereby becoming the first animal in the zodiac. Then the order in which the other animals arrived became their order in the zodiac system.

The passing on of traditional culture is depicted in the film through a relay race in whcih the participants are 12 young people. They wear animal masks, which combine traditional patterns with modern elements. ...

They run through the entire country, from the traditional lanes of Beijing with their rows of courtyard houses to highways passing through towering mountains, deserts, deep seas, the Great Wall, and even the sky...The modes include parkour, skateboarding, an off-road vehicle, the high-speed train and a rocket ship...

The rat is the last one to get the baton, which turns out to be a traditional red scroll. When the scroll unfurls, the message is revealed: "Continuing to write our own legend."

We don't keep many of the old ways alive, but I did give out red envelopes.

It's no mystery why that tradition stays popular.

When It's OK to Steal

Helen Raleigh (Federalist)

Helen Raleigh is fed up, not with cultural appropriation, but with those who complain about it. [bold added]

No one is safe from being accused of “cultural appropriation,” or even “racial identity theft.” Whether you are rich and famous or an average Joe going about your life, culture police are everywhere to make sure that people don’t out of their lane to claim something that’s “not theirs.”

...Based on the social-justice warriors’ logic, people must only function within the ethnic identity and culture they were born into—for life. Authenticity, to them, means each cultural group must embrace its own culture and fiercely defend its unique traits from others.

Hamilton cast in 2016 (Entertainment Tonight)

Cultural appropriation is a sin committed only by whites. In fine dining Chef Gordon Ramsey was excoriated for opening an Asian restaurant when neither he nor his head chef were Asian. Yet here in San Francisco no one says a word when Asian chefs serve Italian or haute cuisine.

In entertainment, productions of the Mikado have been criticized heavily if they don't have Asian actors. On Broadway Hamilton, a musical about the American Founding played by a non-white cast, has been showered with accolades.

Helen Raleigh, who immigrated from China, welcomes Westerners trying to adopt elements of Chinese culture. Similarly, she is enthusiastic about Zumba and yoga classes, and she will snack on nachos on Super Bowl Sunday.

Your humble blogger pays no attention to those who want people to stay within their cultural confines. When they criticize Hamilton for cultural appropriation, I'll start listening.

[Note: just in case it isn't clear, I have no problem with the Mikado played by an all-white cast or Hamilton with non-white actors.]

2014 MacBook Air: Still Going Strong

Time to install the 3rd case.

The screen on the MacBook Air cracked two years ago, and I had the battery replaced at the same time as the repair. The laptop is still going strong after six years with its 1.7 GHz Intel Core i7 processor and 8 GB RAM. (I looked at the new MacBooks last fall, but the features weren't compelling enough to spend at least $1,000.)

One worthwhile safety measure is to buy an inexpensive (<$15) case every two years. It not only affords protection from the occasional drop but shields the laptop from dirt, food, and spilled drinks.

I'll keep using it until it stops. Meanwhile, I back it up every evening.

Homelessness: You Will Be Made to Care, Comrade

It would be quite a stretch for me to live in Beverly Hills, but, if a proposal becomes law, all I would have to do is pitch a tent in the 90210 zip code. Cities would be required to shelter the homeless, according to a recommendation by the governor’s Regional Council of Homeless Advisors. [bold added]

Sacramento Mayor Darrell Steinberg told The Chronicle, “We are calling for a legally enforceable mandate requiring governments to bring people home. No more of this being an option. ... When it really matters, we require it. Why should this be any different?”

The Chronicle editorial board supports forcing cities to provide housing (and other services).

by making housing a right instead of the luxury it’s become for an unconscionable number of Californians, the task force’s proposal would constitute a dramatic shift in the right direction....

The trouble is that, as San Francisco’s experience attests, spending large new sums of money on homelessness and housing has not been as consistently effective as it is politically expedient in a liberal state. Making the provision of sufficient housing and shelter obligatory is what’s missing.

California must exist in an alternate reality. The rest of the country is reducing homelessness , but it has increased in California to such an extent that the national totals are rising. California is spending $billions--as are other States--and outside of California it's working.

Rather than look at why we're so ineffective, California politicians and the Chronicle are saying that we're not trying hard enough, so we'll get the law to force you to try harder.

Compassion is not optional. You will be made to care, comrade.

Far Removed From My Wheelhouse

As a retiree and part-time finance consultant, I've posted an abbreviated profile on LinkedIn.

That's enough information for some information scrapers to send me regular emails on jobs (e.g., controller, treasurer, interim CFO, investment analyst) that I might be interested in.

I gotta say that community organizer is far removed from my wheelhouse.

These job algorithms still need work.