Sunday, October 03, 2021

Blessing of the Animals, 2021

One year ago the Blessing of the Animals, held to honor St. Francis of Assisi, was cancelled.

Now that services have resumed, the four-legged friends were welcomed back for a blessing inside the church. The turnout of both people and animals was low.

Restarting a cold engine is a long process.

Next year, the weather and county health authorities permitting, our priests will return to the Foster City Dog Park.

Saturday, October 02, 2021

Seeing the Light

(Image from Fullerton Observer)
A basic rule of finance is that when risk increases, prices rise in the affected market. As some businesses depart the sector, those that remain must charge more to compensate for their losses. There are many examples: insurance companies that no longer write fire policies, retail stores that close because of rising theft, doctors retiring because of increasing litigation, etc.

Another example is the risk to all landlords from the eviction moratorium, originally imposed for three months and now stretching to two years. Once the taking-from-landlords started it was very difficult to shut off. As we wrote one year ago
This law, through its one-size-fits-all approach, has permanently changed the rental market in California. It has permanently increased the risk of being a landlord by showing how easily California can override contracts for a year in the name of a health crisis...I doubt the State intended for landlords to remove rental units from the market, but that's a very foreseeable consequence of imposing a new risk on an industry.
Landlords are also selling their properties to owner-occupants. A reduction in the supply of rental housing is an inevitable consequence of government intervention in the market, as was rent control.

Landlord Ruth Schwarz (Chron photo)
The Chronicle reports that an individual Oakland landlord has been trying to evict her tenant since February 2020. [bold added]
After September 2019, Schwartz alleges in court filings, Lewis stopped paying rent. Lewis declined to comment....

With the attempted eviction at Schwartz’s house stalled by the pandemic, the situation escalated again in September 2020. Schwartz claimed in a court filing that she returned home from a trip to find a large, unpermitted shed in the front yard — and then noticed that the structure with a shingle roof and electrical wiring also had a bed, indoor plants and art on the walls, according to photos filed in county court.
The twist in the story is that the landlord, Ruth
Schwartz, 59, says the rent debt has climbed to nearly $34,000. For the former AIDS activist and Bernie Sanders supporter, it’s a strange reversal to be advocating for landlords in a changing Bay Area.

“This is the best place in the world to be who I am, and I love that there are such strong tenants’ rights,” she said. “Except in a situation like this.”
To Progressives property is theft and should be controlled by the government, but not if it's their own property.

Friday, October 01, 2021

My Friend Bill

We lost my friend Bill last week. The immediate reason for his death was a fall at home, but the real cause was the cancer that had weakened him.

In the old days I suppose that I wouldn't have called him a true "friend"; I hadn't even met his wife in person or been to his house or he to mine.

Over the years we had a number of meetings and business lunches with other people, trying to get something going. Since the start of the COVID lockdown we had talked on Skype two or three times a month, trying to see if there was any business we could do together. The cupboard was bare, since his expertise lay in a business that was highly dependent on the coronavirus-devastated travel and leisure industry.

Once we had exhausted the usual discussion of potential prospects our conversation turned to each other's health, travel plans to Hawaii (me Honolulu, him Maui), and our love of old cars. He always ended with his cheery "I'll make some more calls and get back to you."

I have other endeavors, business and otherwise, that require more time and attention, and I told myself that our scheduled conversations were for his benefit, to keep his spirits up. Only now I realize that they were for me as well.

Goodbye, my friend. RIP.

Thursday, September 30, 2021

The Xi Jinping Put: Still Operational

It appears that President Xi has allowed
Evergrande to live a while longer (WSJ).
A good part of the stock market swoon in September has been due to the possible insolvency of China Evergrande Group, one of the world's largest real estate companies.
How big is Evergrande?
Evergrande had nearly $78 billion in revenue last year and hundreds of projects in more than 200 Chinese cities. For years it used borrowed money and presold apartments to aggressively amass land and develop projects. Along the way the company paid out billions of dollars in dividends to shareholders, including the equivalent of more than $5 billion over the past three years to founder, top shareholder and Chairman Hui Ka Yan.

Why is Evergrande facing a crisis?
Problems started to emerge last year when pandemic lockdowns hurt property sales for months, and they snowballed into concerns about a cash crunch last fall. Meanwhile, China’s efforts to crack down on borrowing by real-estate developers via limits known as the “three red lines” kept the company from taking on new debt. Cash is so short the company this summer started paying some suppliers with unfinished apartments instead of money. Its struggles sparked protests at its headquarters in Shenzhen.

How much does Evergrande owe?
The company had the equivalent of around $88 billion in outstanding debt at the end of June, about 42% coming due in less than a year. Its total debt burden is the most of any publicly traded real-estate management or development company globally, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. Research firm Capital Economics estimates Evergrande also has sold an estimated 1.4 million apartments, worth $200 billion, that it hasn’t yet completed.
In past years investors outside China wouldn't have been too worried about the collapse of an Evergrande because of the belief that the Chinese government would back the debt obligations of large Chinese companies. (This is the Chinese version of the Fed put, a market understanding based on past Fed behavior, that the U.S. government would stop losses from becoming too deep and widespread and possibly jeopardize the entire financial system.)

In the latter half of the month there have been signs that the "Xi put" is operational, with some steps being taken to shore up Evergrande which nevertheless did miss debt payments in September.

The U.S. stock markets continued to drop in late September because of higher interest rates (the cause of the drop in late 2018), supply shortages, and inflation. The Chinese economic slowdown is part of the reason for pessimism, but at least for now a financial crisis is off the table.

Some investors have seized on these government signals as an opportunity to bargain-hunt Chinese bonds and stocks. Too soon and too rich for my blood.

Wednesday, September 29, 2021

Depression and Dementia

(Image from sharpbrains.com)
As if life wasn't difficult enough for teens and young adults with depression, UCSF researchers say that this condition is highly correlated with dementia. [bold added]
Depression in young adulthood might increase risk for cognitive impairment in old age, a new UCSF study has found.

The study — which used predictive models to determine depressive symptoms over a lifetime — found that the chances of cognitive impairment were 73% higher for those estimated to have elevated depressive symptoms in early adulthood, and 43% higher for those estimated to have elevated depressive symptoms in later life.
The conclusions find a receptive audience because they play into our belief that brain disorders are related. However,....

1) There are a great many years between youth and old age. Youthful disease is not destiny.

2) Depression is better understood today than in the past. Therapy and changes in attitudes and behavior (gratitude, social interaction, self care, hobbies, and "cognitive restructuring") can help, and for severe cases medications are available.

3) By social interaction we mean the in-person kind, not social media, which can be mentally toxic to teenagers.

4) The UCSF study is based on "predictive models" that have not been verified by observation:
The study pulled data from 15,000 people in different age cohorts, ranging from 20-89 — divided into older, midlife and young adulthood — and used predictive methods to estimate the average trajectory of depressive symptoms. That trajectory is used to make a “best guess” of how older adults with dementia might have been in early adulthood.

While this methodology isn’t as good as studying someone over a lifetime,[ Dr. Willa] Brenowitz said, it’s the best researchers have now — and should spotlight the need to start observation for dementia risk factors earlier in life.
Predictive models are works-in-progress, as we have seen from much more elaborate climate, epidemiological, and econometric models that have made predictions that proved to be wildly inaccurate.

It's useful that the connection between depression and dementia is being explored. It's also true that the models can be wrong, and even, if true, there is time to take the steps that can break the connection.

Tuesday, September 28, 2021

Turn Off, (Don't) Tune In, Drop Out, and Live Longer

For the past five years I've achieved a measure of peace by not tuning in to television news, which--only a slight exaggeration--pushes outrage 24/7. (I also include late night comedy, which has substituted putdowns of half the country for lighthearted laughs about the human condition.)

Internet news is toxic in a different way. Researchers have established that popular sites like Tik Tok and Facebook quickly figure out the subjects and opinions that individual users like to read about and feed them more of the same. Anger is often the by-product.

Within our cocoons it's easy to become outraged at the injustices done to "our" side by the ignorant and evil people on the other.

Do yourself a favor. Use the off switch and add years to your life.

Monday, September 27, 2021

Can You Handle the Uncertainty?

Accountants make a "maybe" complicated
When a person asks if I would like to attend an event, or donate money or time, or make any other kind of commitment, maybe does no one any favors in lieu of a yes or no. My interlocutor will make a note of the answer and come back to me at a future point; all I'm usually doing is putting off a "no" answer so as not to hurt the person's feelings. It does sometimes happen that more facts need to come in (e.g.,"my boss might need me to go out of town") before I can commit, but that's rarely the case.

However, a "maybe" can increase the likelihood of a "yes", and that's when it's offered by the requestor. [bold added]
You might consider asking people for a “maybe favor.” A maybe favor is a request for a commitment that might not actually have to be carried out. In your case, you could call for volunteers while making clear the possibility that the clean-up will be cancelled in the event of rain.

Recent research suggests that adding a “maybe” to a request for a favor increases people’s willingness to help. When subjects were asked if they would be willing to donate their earnings from participating in the study, 53% agreed. A different group was asked the same question but told that 5% of those who agreed would have their donations randomly cancelled. Under this condition, 66% chose to donate, which increased the total value of the donations even after eliminating the 5%.

One possible explanation for the increased willingness to donate is that we value the “warm glow” we get from agreeing to help. If we think that there is some probability that we will not be asked to do the favor, the warm glow remains, while the cost of doing the good deed is potentially mitigated.
Asking for volunteers is difficult, but through personal experience I've found that there's less resistance if a person is asked to be a backup. ("I've got the five we need but just in case one doesn't show, can you substitute?")

Make sure it's really a "maybe", however. If the contingency never occurs and the possible always becomes a real obligation, then you've lost personal trustworthiness, which is more valuable to you than any ephemeral cause you may be supporting.

Sunday, September 26, 2021

Perspective

When Tyler Cowen posted this painting on his economics blog with no comments other than "National Gallery, London" and "15th through the 17th centuries", I blew past it. It was just a depiction of Jesus from the period, paling before well-known works by Michelangelo, Da Vinci, and El Greco.

I went back an hour later. Obviously the theme is Jesus being baptized, the figure to the right pouring water is John the Baptist, and the white bird directly above Jesus is the Holy Spirit.

To the right a second baptismal candidate is prepping himself, and to the left are three angels, the wings a clue to their identity. All parties are barefoot--even the bottom of the tree resembles a human foot. And how come so big a tree didn't have roots that bulged the ground, and why did the Jordan River look like a man-made ditch?

Well, enough wondering, ruminating, and teasing out the artist's intentions. The Internet is the death of figuring things out for oneself; it's too easy to just look up the answer.

In less than a minute the painting was identified as as the 15th century Baptism of Christ by Piero della Francesca. I had discerned the basics but certainly didn't know the following:
The original triptych frame may have included a roundel above the dove showing God the Father, which with Christ and the dove representing the Holy Spirit would complete the Holy Trinity. The figure of Christ, John's hand and the bowl, and the bird, form an axis which divides the painting in two symmetrical parts.

A second division is created by the walnut tree on the left, with white bark that echoes the white skin of Christ, which divides the painting according to the golden ratio.

Balancing the figure of John to the right, but separated from Jesus by the tree's trunk, are three angels on the left who are wearing different clothing. In a break from traditional iconography, the angels are not supporting Christ's garments, but are holding each other's hands. This could be an allusion to the contemporary Council of Florence (1431–45), whose goal was the unification of the Western and Eastern Churches. The Camaldolese monk and theologian, Saint Ambrose Traversari (+1439), who had been Prior General of the Camaladolese congregation, had been a strong supporter of the union. Such symbolism is also suggested by the presence, behind the neophyte on the right, of figures dressed in an oriental fashion, usually interpreted as Byzantine dignitaries. Alternatively, the three angels could also represent the three aspects of the Holy Trinity.

Piero della Francesca was renowned in his times as an authority on perspective and geometry: his attention to the theme is shown by John's arm and leg, which form two angles of the same size.
The backdrop of the entire painting is not the surroundings of the real Jordan River but Piero della Francesca's native Tuscany.

The Renaissance artist had embraced the period's fascination with geometry, and how perspective and symmetry enhance the beauty of the piece.

The weird white walnut tree frames Jesus on the left and balances John the Baptist to the right. I still don't know why the artist chose a tree to make his painting symmetrical nor why it is featured so prominently. In my dotage I've accepted that there are some questions I'll never know the answer to.

Saturday, September 25, 2021

Age is Not Just a Number When Benefits Are at Stake

The Kobayashis--Yuichi (retired), 67, and Sachiko, 64,
-- work part-time and full-time, respectively. (WSJ photo)
"Japan is by far the world’s oldest nation, with more than 29% of the population 65 or older" but has figured out a way to solve the problem of too many old people: [bold added]
Japan is at the forefront of change. Millions of people have learned they no longer are old, but merely “pre-old.”

That is the terminology suggested by both the Japan Gerontological Society and the Japan Geriatrics Society, which say the 65-to-74 range now should be called “pre-old age.” The government says the idea is worth looking at and has modified its annual White Paper on the Elderly to make clear it isn’t necessarily calling people in their 60s elderly.
While being called "pre-old" is complimentary to 65-74 year olds who practice good health habits, Japanese are suspicious of the motivations behind the word change.
Among the pre-old set, fear remains that the redefinition, even if advocated only by independent bodies, simply encourages the austerity-minded Ministry of Finance to slash benefits.

Meiko Yamamoto, 74, who works at a medical-clothing factory, said she agreed that many people remained active at a more advanced age these days, but she said wider recognition of that might lead to an unhappy result. “I suspect the government is likely to delay offering pensions,” she said.
Americans would be immediately on their guard if the Federal Government initiated a "pre-old" demographic classification. Because of a long history of instituting vocabulary changes to prepare people for real policy changes, most elderly will gladly accept the tradeoff: continue to call us "old" but don't you dare touch our Social Security and Medicare benefits.

Friday, September 24, 2021

Giant Over-Achievers

Buster Posey, 34 is the only likely HOF
member
on the Giants roster. (Chron photo)
The San Francisco Giants (99-54) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (98-55) have the two best records in Major League baseball, but unfortunately for both they are in the same division, the National League West. This means that the one who finishes second will be a wild-card team which will play in a one-game elimination for the right to advance in the playoffs. If either of them were in another division, they would have already won, or be cruising to its title and could be resting their starters for the playoffs.

Last year's World Series champion Dodgers were expected to contend again, but no one expected the Giants to be in this position. The Dodgers are loaded with All-Stars and future Hall-of-Famers while the Giants have a few aging, formerly great players, cast-offs from other teams, and rookies.

With 94% of the season gone, the experts still have a hard time explaining the Giants' success.. From an ESPN article written two days ago:
The San Francisco Giants have been the best team in baseball for nearly six months now, through 151 games, 227 home runs, and at least a million roster moves. And every day of those nearly six months, and each one of the 137 days that they woke up in first place, they have been described, collectively, with endless derivatives of the word surprise.

...despite the durability and repetition of the Giants' achievements -- 97 games don't just win themselves -- they continue to be regarded as something of a fluke.
Your humble blogger freely admits to being a fan who jumps on the bandwagon, i.e., follows the local teams a lot more when they are winning. However, I must admit to really enjoying the way the Giants are going about doing it, not by creating a Murderer's Row but by playing smart and maximizing their (average) physical talents.

Example: below are the two key plays in the 9th inning when the visiting Giants broke a 5-5 tie with the Padres to win the game.



Top of the 9th: a single brings Brandon Belt home with the winning run.

The first thing to notice is what didn't happen. Manager Gabe Kapler did not put in a fast pinch-runner for Brandon Belt, 33, stating that what the first baseman lacked in speed he made up for in base-running savvy, and besides, he might (and did) need his defense later in the game.

Concerning the scoring play itself, Brandon Belt immediately took off for home plate, judging that Padres shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. would fail to make the catch, which he missed by inches. (Tatis would have easily doubled off Belt at second base.) When catcher Austin Nola made what would have been a successful tag, Belt punched the ball out of Nola's glove and was safe at home plate.

Bottom of the 9th: Giants close out the Padres with a double play.

All-Star Padres 3rd baseman Manny Machado hit a sharp groundball to 1st baseman Brandon Belt, who was positioned perfectly between 1st and 2nd. With no one to hold him at first base, the Padres 1B runner was nearly halfway to 2nd when the play started.

Belt had to hurry his throw to shortstop Brandon Crawford, who stepped on 2nd and threw to first to pitcher Tyler Rogers covering. Crawford had to make a 95 MPH throw to Rogers to catch the speedy Machado, and Rogers had to run to first at the crack of the bat (baseball cliche) to beat him. (Note how Rogers flinched; pitchers throw fast balls and are not used to receiving them.) It was a play that took place in four seconds and required perfect execution by three players.

Note: Brandon Belt proclaimed himself team captain two weeks ago, and a teammate taped a "C" to his uniform with black electrical tape. He then wore it in a game. The Giants are riding the joke for all its worth:

Thursday, September 23, 2021

It Doesn't Read Your Mind.....Yet

(Images from Frontiers in Psychology)
Apple is pouring billions of dollars into developing medical applications for its devices. Although the emphasis continues to be on wearables, the iPhone is at the center of the push into mental health.
Apple Inc. is working on technology to help diagnose depression and cognitive decline, aiming for tools that could expand the scope of its burgeoning health portfolio...

Using an array of sensor data that includes mobility, physical activity, sleep patterns, typing behavior and more, researchers hope they can tease out digital signals associated with the target conditions so that algorithms can be created to detect them reliably....

The research projects are still at early stages, and may never lead to new device features...While prior academic studies have shown some evidence that people with certain mental-health conditions use their digital devices differently than others, it remains to be seen if reliable algorithms can be created to detect the conditions...

If they are successful, Apple and its partners could improve the detection of the conditions, which affect tens of millions of people world-wide. But the extent of user tracking that may be required could spark privacy concerns. To address them, Apple aims for algorithms that work on users’ devices and don’t send the data to Apple servers...

The pandemic drove an increase in mental-health-related complaints. The percentage of adults reporting anxiety or depression-related symptoms reached 41% in January, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation, nearly quadruple the early-2019 figure. Mild cognitive impairment, which can develop into dementia, affects around 5 million Americans over 60 years old, estimates the Alzheimer’s Association...

UCLA has said its research studying signs of stress, anxiety and depression began with a pilot phase last fall tracking Apple Watch and iPhone data from 150 people and will continue with a main phase tracking similar data for 3,000 people starting this year.

UCLA researchers will track data from the iPhone’s video camera, keyboard and audio sensors, and data from the watch related to movement, vital signs and sleep, according to the documents and people familiar with the study. The data that may be used includes analysis of participants’ facial expressions, how they speak, the pace and frequency of their walks, sleep patterns, and heart and respiration rates. They may also measure the speed of their typing, frequency of their typos and content of what they type, among other data points, according to the people familiar with the research and the documents...

Biogen and Apple said in January they are collaborating on a study to use the iPhone and Apple Watch to track cognitive function over time and identify mild cognitive impairment, a condition that can develop into Alzheimer’s. The two-year study aims to follow about 20,000 participants—half of them at high risk of cognitive impairment—and will use device data in a way similar to the UCLA mental-health research, according to the documents and people familiar with the matter. The work follows a 2019 feasibility study that showed that 31 adults with cognitive impairment exhibited different behavior on their Apple devices than healthy older adults.

Biogen is collaborating on the study because it hopes it can help Apple develop an iPhone feature to detect mild cognitive impairment early and encourage relevant users to seek care earlier, according to a person familiar with the matter. The company will compare the data against standard tests of brain health including traditional cognitive assessments and scans that track plaque buildup in the brain, according to the documents and the person familiar with the work.

Biogen’s drug Aduhelm, which costs about $56,000 a year, was approved earlier this year by the FDA for people with early-stage Alzheimer’s.
Diagnosing mental health conditions is difficult even for trained clinicians who are able to interact with patients in person. An iPhone algorithm that matches facial expressions, eye movements, etc. with depression or early-stage dementia can be beneficial. If a mental health app is able to screen millions of people quickly, and users are made aware that a positive reading is private, should be checked out and does not necessarily denote illness, that should lessen user concerns.

Note: it would be ironic if the same smartphone whose use triggers depression in teen-age girls is the device that warns that the user may be depressed.

Facebook Knows Instagram Is Toxic for Teen Girls, Company Documents Show
Thirty-two percent of teen girls said that when they felt bad about their bodies, Instagram made them feel worse,” the researchers said in a March 2020 slide presentation posted to Facebook’s internal message board, reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. “Comparisons on Instagram can change how young women view and describe themselves”....

“Teens blame Instagram for increases in the rate of anxiety and depression,” said another slide. “This reaction was unprompted and consistent across all groups.”

Among teens who reported suicidal thoughts, 13% of British users and 6% of American users traced the desire to kill themselves to Instagram, one presentation showed.

Wednesday, September 22, 2021

Aloha and Mahalo, Mr. Harrington

(NY Post photo)
Al Harrington took his place behind the lectern. The year was 1966.

He had played football in high school and had returned as a football coach. My expectations were low; all coaches were expected to teach a course. I assumed that freshman European History was not his primary focus.

(Teaching wasn't the priority for my 8th-grade Biology teacher who was also a world-class surfer.)

I was wrong about Mr Harrington. He was fully prepared for his lectures, speaking authoritatively in a voice that seemed almost theatrically trained. He assigned homework from the text every night and got it back to us promptly, marked with bold flourishes.

But what I remember most clearly from those days was the passion with which he spoke, and how he emphasized the points that were important. His wasn't the cheap and easy kind of history teaching, where the students are inundated with dates and genealogical charts, but the one that explicated the forces behind the Renaissance and Reformation, and showed how Napoleon arose from the French Revolution.

As a senior I signed up for AP European History. It was a breeze, and so was the exam, thanks to the preparation from Mr. Harrington three years earlier

In 1972 Al Harrington's talent was recognized by the producers of the original Hawaii Five-O when he was signed to the role of Ben Kokua. His entertainment career took off, and we lost a great teacher.

He died yesterday of a stroke. RIP.

Below is Al Harrington speaking at Punahou School at the groundbreaking for a new sports facility in 1979



Below is the Star-Advertiser's obituary:

Tuesday, September 21, 2021

Incongruity

A member of our household reported for his flu shot today at the fancy new Stanford Neuroscience Health Center. When he asked to use the restroom, he was directed to the outdoor portable toilets (right of picture). When he returned to the Health Center, I was told I could not join him inside for health reasons.

While waiting, I used the facilities myself.

The weather was hot and humid. The condition of the port-a-potty ranked (!) right up there with those found at construction sites and outdoor concerts. Stanford is in the midst of medical-center capital projects exceeding $1 billion, and the reliance on outdoor toilets was incongruous...and amusing.

Monday, September 20, 2021

Eviction Moratoriums: No Reason to Continue

Sign from August, 2020 (KQED)
The eviction moratoriums that began in March, 2020, were supposed to last three months. At the time we knew that this extraordinary benefit--worth many millions of dollars to many thousands of people at the expense of landlords--would be very difficult to discontinue. The press ran story after story about families who were directly affected by the coronavirus through illness and indirectly affected through layoffs and business shutdowns. The moratoriums were extended another three months, then into the spring of 2021.

Congress extended the national moratorium to July 31st, and the Biden Administration and the CDC unilaterally kept it going until the Supreme Court ruled that it had to stop on August 31st. (In California, by the way, the moratorium continues until September 30 and an eviction may be forestalled until 2022 if the tenant pays 25% of the back rent.)

Now that 18 months have elapsed since the start of the lockdowns, the data has come in on how renters as a group fared economically: [bold added]
The CFPB [Consumer Financial Protection Bureau] issued a report on Friday examining the financial conditions of renters before and during the pandemic. It shows that renters’ credit scores increased by 16 points during the pandemic compared to 10 points for homeowners with mortgages. Credit scores increased even more for renters with children (25 points) and those earning less than $40,000 (18 points).

Survey measures of renters’ “Financial Well-Being” also improved between June 2019 and June 2020 even as unemployment spiked. Meantime, fewer renters fell behind on non-rent payments and bills. The share of renters with a credit delinquency fell to 28% in April 2021 from 33.3% in December 2019. “As of spring 2021, renters’ finances appear to have been in a stronger position than they were before the pandemic,” the CFPB writes.

Thank the trillions of dollars in pandemic transfer payments from Congress, which helped lower-income Americans, who are more likely to rent. As the CFPB explains, “Before the pandemic, renters were more likely to be financially vulnerable, partly because they were younger on average and had lower incomes. These factors made them both more likely to receive a larger stimulus payment and more likely to receive student loan forbearance” as well as enhanced and extended unemployment benefits. Parents also received $3,000 to $3,600 tax credits per child.

The Census Bureau reported last week that the poverty rate fell in 2020 to 9.1% from 11.7% in 2019 thanks to stimulus checks and enhanced unemployment benefits. Many used the transfer payments, eviction moratorium and student loan forbearance to pay off higher-interest debt, which improved credit scores.

The claim that the eviction moratorium was necessary to prevent hard-up renters from being thrown onto the streets was always dubious, and now it appears even more so. It was another income transfer, and thank the High Court for finally striking it down.
The public may well be treated to more stories of good people who have fallen on hard times and don't deserve to be kicked out of their apartments. However, such individuals existed long before the pandemic and are no longer representative of renters as a group.

It's debatable whether the eviction moratoriums were worth the overriding of contracts and the unprecedented burden that a particular group (landlords) was forced to bear for the sake of mitigating harm to another group (tenants). Now that the CFPB has shown that tenants on average improved their economic position, what's important now is that the moratoriums end so that the damage caused by this policy stops getting worse.

Sunday, September 19, 2021

Charity: It's Not Only Business that Government Gets in the Way Of

Asylum seekers arrive at the Catholic Charities
Humanitarian Respite Center in McAllen, TX (WSJ)
It is a 2,000-year-old conundrum: how to be a Christian in a secular world.

Not only must individuals wrestle with their own demons (or angels) they must also comply with both the laws of society and of God, which are sometimes in conflict.

One contemporary American example is rendering certain kinds of assistance to illegal immigrants (I prefer that term to "undocumented" because most people, citizens or not, don't lug around documents in the digital age) when it is forbidden by law.

Catholic Bishop Daniel Flores cites problems with a new Texas executive order:
We can’t provide long-term shelter, but we do offer hot showers, clean clothes, fresh food and water, baby supplies, urgent care from doctors and nurses, and volunteer legal help. These families—already processed and released into the U.S. by federal agents—stay with us for about 24 hours. Then they continue on their journeys. That usually means a bus or plane trip to family members in other parts of the country. Later, an immigration judge will consider their asylum claim.

But our work has been threatened by the Texas state government. Gov. Greg Abbott recently issued an executive order that would prohibit us from transporting those we serve beyond our walls. We filed a friend-of-the-court brief Aug. 12 explaining our ministry’s needs, and a federal court in El Paso temporarily blocked the order from going into effect.

If the order goes into effect, it would forbid our organization to drive a pregnant woman to a doctor’s office or take a child to a hospital for care. It would forbid us to drive a migrant family to a bus station or airport so they could continue their journey to waiting family members. Unable to help move migrant families, we would quickly run out of room to receive new ones in desperate need of help. We would have to tell federal agents that we have no more room. Where would they then leave these families? On the streets of local towns?

We have a religious obligation to serve the poor who are suffering in front of us.
Bishop Flores has an answer to a major concern of Governor Abbott's:
Mr. Abbott says that this is about reducing the transmission of Covid-19, and keeping our staff, volunteers, migrants and the surrounding community safe is critical to our mission. While the U.S. Border Patrol does not test those we serve for Covid, we do. Anyone who tests positive is required to quarantine—sometimes at a site organized with the help of local city and county governments, sometimes at a modest local motel.

The governor’s order would even forbid us to transport families who have tested positive for Covid-19 to the quarantine spaces. Under the order, if someone from our center attempts to drive a migrant anywhere, the Department of Public Safety could stop them and force them to return to the Center—possibly impounding the vehicle. How does that protect Texans from the virus?
I understand and even share Governor Abbott's concern about spreading COVID-19. Another reason for his executive order, perhaps, is that Governor Abbott's party also believes that many migrant families don't show up for immigration court hearings and simply disappear into American society, often aided by people who provide them transportation (note: the no-show claim is disputed).

Solving the problems at the border is way above my pay grade, but so far I have had no trouble differentiating what to render to Ceasar and God.

I work at several charities that supply basic needs (food, clothing, shelter, etc.); I never inquire about recipients' backgrounds or ask what they are doing now or where they are going next. Providing legal aid is ok, but I draw the line at political advocacy, which IMHO weakens the purity of charity and rives the organizations that supply it.

Lately we have seen ideologues who, once placed in power, prefer to destroy businesses and charities for reasons having nothing to do with health and safety. It is my hope and expectation that Gov. Abbott, a Christian, will modify his executive order so that Catholic Charities can continue its good works.