Early Days

Quiet times at 4th & Mission, SF (Chron photo)

Did You Enjoy the Play, Mrs. Lincoln, Dept:
If one is able to overlook the death, disease, and financial destruction that COVID-19 has wrought, one can appreciate its silver linings, like a reduction in crime.

San Mateo County: [bold added]

District Attorney Steve Wagstaffe said he’s seeing a 50% decline in cases in all branches of his office. Violent crime, residential and auto burglaries are all down and his office hasn’t received a single hate crime case this year as reports of hate crimes against Asian Americans elsewhere are increasing since the outbreak of the virus.

According to the San Mateo County Sheriff’s Office, there were 179 total crimes last week compared to 233 crimes during the same week in 2019, a 23% drop.

In San Bruno, there were 187 crimes last week and as many as 361 that week the year prior, a 48% decrease, according to the department.

San Francisco:

Violent crime was down 31% during the first week of the shelter-in-place order, compared with the same period in 2019. Property crime rates were nearly 50% lower during the same time frame.

Police departments are seeing an uptick in domestic violence and noise complaints, but these are still early days.

Forget What I told You, Do This Instead

Bank of America took loan applications on
Friday. Though being a business customer
for 30 years, I didn't qualify because I didn't
have an existing loan facility.

I feel sorry for the people who work in banks--no, not the crooks who knowingly made loans or sold Triple-A rated products that collapsed in the financial crisis of 2008-2009--but the people who had to pick up the pieces and comply with the regulatory regime of the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010.

Now they're fielding complaints on Friday that they weren't ready to make loans based on Treasury rules issued Thursday night.

Friday was the first day for the new Paycheck Protection Program, a part of the $2 trillion stimulus package designed to address the economic fallout of the novel coronavirus pandemic.

Businesses with 500 employees or fewer are eligible for the loans, which have a 1% interest rate and are designed to keep employees on the payrolls for eight weeks, limiting the mounting ranks of workers applying for unemployment checks. If a borrower doesn’t lay off workers, the government plans to forgive the loan, including interest. Borrowers may also use the money for rent and utilities.

Many of the nation’s biggest banks, including JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co., said Friday morning they weren’t yet ready to take loan applications. By Friday afternoon Chase said borrowers with a business checking account could start applying for the loans online; but the bank warned of possible “processing delays and system failures” due to high volume and told customers that some applications wouldn’t be approved by the SBA, given limited funds.

One reason many banks weren’t ready to process applications was a delay in getting final rules about the program from the Treasury Department and SBA, as well as uncertainty about what kinds of documentation will be accepted to qualify prospective borrowers. The government didn’t release final versions of the documents that must be filed by borrowers and lenders until Thursday night.

After a decade of being told to tighten their standards, the banks are under intense pressure to shovel $billions out the door to save businesses and jobs. Everyone knows that fraud is going to happen. Everyone knows that loan losses are going to happen. The banks know they'll be blamed in the future, just as they are being blamed now for not lending fast enough.

Neither a borrower or a lender be, but if you're going to pick one it's great to be a borrower today.

Palm Sunday, 2020

2018: marching around the block.

Worshippers normally march at the beginning of Palm Sunday services to commemorate Jesus' triumphant procession into Jerusalem. There are no physical gatherings this year, and everyone must walk alone.

It's just as well we're not outdoors because of the rain. Our Lenten meditations, which end Thursday, on the meaning of life will continue indoors.

We began "meditating" on the subject in a smoke-filled college dorm nearly 50 years ago and to be honest haven't made much progress.

The World Has Changed, and We Mean It This Time

The world has changed--much more, IMHO, than after 9/11 or the financial crisis.

Version 2.0 is taking shape before our eyes.

World 1.0	World 2.0
Police: uncover your face	Police: cover your face
Take mass transit	Cancel mass transit
Reusable	Single-use
Urban	Suburban
Specialist	Jack-of-all-trades
Supermodels	Computer models
Senators	Governors
Interdependency	Self sufficiency
Medical insurance	Medical supply chain
Moisturizer	Sanitizer

I stole the idea from Tyler Cowen, who has a much longer list.

Costco, for the Disneyland Experience

I arrived 15 minutes before Costco's 8 o'clock special opening for senior members (the regular opening was at 10). The line snaked around the parking lot like an E-ticket ride at Disneyland.

The majority of those waiting were out-of-towners, impatient and fidgety. Word has gotten out that our Costco is less crowded than others in the Bay Area.

I walked through the entrance at 9:20. Shopping from a list, I checked off all the items except toilet paper. TP wasn't crucial because we still have a month's supply of the two-ply.

Entry to exit took a small fraction of the 90 minutes that I waited in line. Just like an E-ticket ride at Disneyland.

Who Did It? Then I'll Tell You How Outraged I am

In one NoCal hospital, nurses store their PPE in
marked paper bags for re-use. (Chron photo)

Given the nationwide shortage of PPE (personal protective equipment), this headline is another example of criminal neglect by the government:

"Coronavirus: 21 million N95 masks stockpiled. All are expired."

Actually, below is the real headline from the Chronicle (belated April Fool's) with three words restored:

Coronavirus: The state had 21 million N95 masks stockpiled. All are expired.

Credit to the Chronicle for pressing California agencies and Governor Newsom until they admitted the mistake. Also, it's quite refreshing to read a story that's devoid of outrage about government errors. (If it were President Trump's responsibility for the expired masks, would the tone be the same? This is an example of a rhetorical question.)

It's not so bad because the expired N95 masks can still be useful. Said John Balmes, a UCSF pulmonologist: [bold added]

“It would be nice to see the state purchasing new masks on a regular basis, but ... I think the expired masks should be distributed for protection of frontline health care workers to hospitals that are running out of non-expired N95s,” he said. “An expired N95 is very much more effective in protecting against SARS-CoV-2 infection than homemade cloth masks.”

It's also not so bad because we're really not out of masks. UCSF spokeswoman Kristen Bole:

“We have received expired masks from the state, but we are not refurbishing them at this time,” she said. “At the current time, we have an adequate supply of new N95s to meet our needs, at least for the time being, so we are reserving the state masks for backup use.”

Ditto from Kaiser Permanente:

“We are providing our staff with the protective equipment that is aligned with the latest science and guidance from public health authorities,” said Karl Sonkin, a Kaiser spokesman. “We are not providing expired masks to our medical staff. We would do so only if every other possible source of masks was exhausted.”

Here in California individual hospitals are responsible for their own purchasing decisions. They can judge best whether to stockpile items for wildfires (yes), earthquakes (yes), or tornados (no), with the State as backup.

In New York City it appears that the Federal Government, i.e.,President Trump, is responsible for shortages of ventilators, masks, and hospital beds. As of this writing NYC's deaths from COVID-19 are approximately 1,400, which is 27% of the U.S. death toll of 5,112. For perspective NYC comprises under 3% of the U.S. population.

You may resume your outrage.

No Property Tax Relief in April

The Federal Government has deferred tax payments to July, and the State of California has followed suit.

It was a pipedream to expect the property taxes to be deferred. Here's the message from Sandie Arnott, the San Mateo County Tax Collector, with the blah-blah omitted: [bold added]

I want to emphasize that the April 10 deadline for the second installment of property tax – which is a State law – must remain in place to ensure that essential county, city, school and special district services can continue...

I stress to everyone in San Mateo County: If you can pay your property taxes on time, you are obligated to do so.

We have written about how property taxes have escalated, even subject to the Proposition 13 limits some of which the politicians are trying to overturn this November.

It appears that San Mateo County didn't save any of its decade-long property tax windfall for emergencies. Everyone's talking about COVID-19 costs, and no one's talking about the savings from closing the schools or the reduction in crime.

We voted for them and their policies, so we're getting what we wanted.

[Update - 4/5/20: Virus cost San Mateo $10M in 2 months

Since the coronavirus outbreak roughly two months ago, the city of San Mateo has lost $10 million in revenue — a nearly 8% drop that has already effectively wiped away the entirety of last year’s budget surplus.

In January, the city pegged general fund revenue at $134 million for the year and now that estimate is down to about $124 million, City Manager Drew Corbett said during a special City Council meeting Monday.

All tax revenue sources with the exception of property tax are affected, Corbett said. Hotel tax revenue has dropped by nearly 40% since the outbreak, recreation and golf tax revenue has decreased by 22%, property transfer tax revenue is down 20%, business license tax revenue dropped 17% and sales tax revenue is 15% below expectations.

The above is an example of a deceptive headline. The virus did not "cost" $10 million in increased expenses. Tax revenues fell by a projected $10 million. Any financial reporter would know not to call a revenue shortfall a cost, and I hope it's just a mistake by the headline writer.

It's a Petri Dish Out There

In Foster City, oblivious to the norms

Many of the county parks are closed, and more people are getting their exercise on the Bay Trail.

Little kids on bikes speed ahead of their parents, oblivious to the norm of social distancing. Adults jump to the side, which would have been an amusing sight a month ago.

An African-American man and I walk toward each other on a narrow sidewalk. I cross the street before he gets close, which some consider a racist move.

We smile and wave. Yes, the world has changed.

Okay, This is Getting Serious

In the least important story of the weekend, Starbucks gave up on its to-go-only model and closed its two stores in Foster City.

On the Starbucks app nearby stores just vanished from the map, like half the world's population in the last two Avengers movies. Disbelieving, I drove by the closest store to see for myself.

Someone who really wants a cuppa joe can go to the kiosk in Safeway or the outlets in nearby San Mateo.

Okay, this is getting serious...

Trump is the Devil

New Orleans on February 25th (Business Insider photo)

Some people--and I used to encounter them in person on a regular basis (thank God for social distancing)--think President Trump is the devil, Hitler, evil incarnate, etc. Of course, they do know that they're speaking metaphorically.

But it's not the accuracy of the metaphor that's the subject of this post, but the convenience of having a devil to blame.

New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell refused to cancel Mardi Gras on February 25th and is now dealing with the consequences--151 deaths, 3,540 total cases, 1,127 patients hospitalized as of today.

Mayor Cantrell blames President Trump.

She told CNN that if the outbreak had been taken seriously on the federal level at the time, they would have called off the event.

"When it's not taken seriously on the federal level, it's very difficult to transcend down to the local level in making these decisions," Cantrell said, adding that the federal response "backed up by the response of our national leader."

Yes, we have seen this movie before. In fact, that's the opening plotline of Jaws, in which the Mayor of Amity Island refuses to close the beaches after a fatal shark attack. The fictional Mayor of a New England town and the real-life Mayor of New Orleans put the money of tourist season and Mardi Gras, respectively, over lives.

When the Mardi Gras decision had to be made, President Trump had already restricted flights from China on January 31st. In New Orleans' case, after the fact, how nice it is to have President Trump to blame.

The devil has his uses
Allows us to make excuses
For our own bad choices
When we listened to the voices
Of selfishness and avarice.
So the devil, he wins twice
When our sin leads to shame
"Not me," I say,"he's to blame."

Mory's is Closed

Yale's Lanman Center

Yes, it's Yale's re-purposing of basketball facilities for the COVID-19 wave that it hopes will not come. No, it's not a hospital.

the Lanman Center, if activated, will house only “very low acuity” patients who are stable but need to remain isolated from high-risk family members. The facility will provide general care to these patients by monitoring their vitals and supplying food and hydration while they recover....sick and healthy patients would be housed separately, with patients who are severely ill remaining at Yale New Haven Hospital.

Below are side-by-side photos of the preparations at Iowa State for the Spanish flu in 1918 and Yale's gym in 2020.

Converting gyms to wards: preparing for a pandemic.
1918 Influenza pandemic at @IowaStateU
2020 Coronavirus pandemic at @Yale -- today. pic.twitter.com/aG0tj0sFnV

— Nicholas A. Christakis (@NAChristakis) March 21, 2020

Yale Professor Nicholas A. Christakis' Twitter feed has excellent historical perspective on and current data analyses of COVID-19.

Visiting the Doctor in the Lockdown Interregnum

The traffic on Highway 101 was the lightest I'd ever seen--and I've lived in the Bay Area 47 years--as I drove to the clinic for the monthly allergy shot.

The door to the parking garage was locked, diverting everyone to the front entrance. The nurse scanned my forehead and pronounced me safe to enter at 97.4°F. (Temperature scans as a COVID-19 detector are prone to false negatives and positives but are better than nothing.)

Half the chairs in the waiting room were marked off-limits to force social distancing. Most of the clinic's patients have respiratory problems and are especially vulnerable to the coronavirus. After getting the injection I waited 30 minutes as standard operating procedure against an anaphylactic reaction.

Parking was free on a weekday, another first.

Later and probably keeping it to ourselves, I suspect we'll miss a few things from the lockdown interregnum.

Resentment Resurfaces

Now that I'm semi-retired I haven't needed to upgrade Microsoft's Office suite (Excel, Word, Powerpoint) for 12 years.

The 2008 features were sufficient for any tasks that I might undertake; besides, the data flow, logic, and organization of a project are far more important to its success than technical bells and whistles.

Earlier this month I upgraded MacOS, and old Excel wouldn't run some self-developed tax spreadsheets. Now was the time to unwrap the box of Office 365 that I got for Christmas several years ago and thought I never needed. (There are alternatives to Microsoft, by the way; Google and Apple both have competing free products that can work with Office documents.)

Memories of the Microsoft/Intel software/hardware treadmill resurfaced (the new version of the software won't work on the old chip and vice versa). In a year's time Microsoft will bill me $69.99 to renew Office, and I'll pay them because it's not worth the hassle to switch.

They know my weaknesses so well, and I resent them for it.

Quiet Heartbreaks

With many thousands of people suffering from COVID-19 and millions on the front lines battling the virus every day, it seems crass and unfeeling to complain about the difficulties of those of us who merely have to stay home. Nevertheless, give a thought to quiet heartbreaks. In life we don't get a lot of those big celebrations, n'est-ce pas?

Many long-anticipated milestones will now never happen—or will pass by unobserved—as celebrations and events get canceled. Beneath the world-wide upheaval of lockdowns, quarantines and shortages, thousands of people are also privately mourning the loss of life’s special moments.

"Big" birthdays, hospital vigils, sports championships, graduations---the highs and lows of life when the human connection is most important--are gone.

I've been looking forward to my 50th class reunion in Hawaii this June. There's been no official announcement, but cancellation is 99% likely; some have already sent in regrets due to the uncertainty. Though the reunion is likely to be deferred to 2021 or perhaps this fall, attendance will surely suffer. Given the number of people who live on the Mainland, and trying not to be too morbid, some of us will miss a chance to see others for the last time.

In the meantime memories of our 40th reunion will have to suffice.

Give a thought to all the hard work by celebration planners, too.

What's the Hurry?

The view west toward San Mateo from Foster City at 8 a.m.

Without being able to go to the gym, I'm still trying to find my footing: walk, bike, or jog? morning or afternoon? trails or sidewalks? (The trails have more foot traffic.)

The answer seems to be to walk whenever the sun is out and to avoid the trails if there are more than a few people on them. Besides, it's easy to maintain social distancing on sidewalks by moving to the middle of the car-less roads.

One silver lining of the semi-lockdown is that it's forced me to become re-acquainted with the neighborhood. Homeowners have installed solar panels and drought-friendly landscaping.

There are more cars in driveways and parked on the streets because everyone's home. Though some vehicles haven't moved for a week there are no tags for going over the 72-hour limit, one of many rules that's been suspended during these unusual times.

I always yield the right of way to another car, shopping cart, or jogger. What's the hurry?

No baseball at Sea Cloud Park, just geese eyeing dogs warily.