It's Not Over

We’ve learned how to manage the inconvenience. First, have the driver’s license and boarding pass at your fingertips to pass quickly through the first airport security checkpoint. Second, wear slip-on shoes (with clean non-holey socks) and a pair of pants with large belt loops; it takes only a few seconds to toss the shoes, belt, wallet, keys, and cell-phone into the first plastic bin and the laptop computer into the second. Don’t wear a nice watch, rings, or other metal; they will just slow you down. Showing off your bling isn’t worth the hassle.

The paralyzing fear is gone. It’s been a long time since the color of the Homeland Security alert was flashed on the six o’clock news. And yet…I still notice and wonder about unattended packages in public spaces. I give young men with a Middle Eastern appearance a second glance and quickly avert my eyes when they look back.

For me trust has vanished—no, I don’t have an overwhelmingly negative, everyone-is-evil outlook—it’s more along the lines of always locking my car door or regularly running a PC virus checker. We may never again sleep the sleep of the blessedly secure. The bad people who want to kill us are still out there, and the war isn’t over. © 2009 Stephen Yuen

Be-Czar

Roger Simon thinks that President Obama's legion of czar appointees may be grounds for impeachment. That's extreme--IMHO we're not even in the same solar system as an impeachable offense because the President should have broad latitude to organize the Executive branch however he wants--but I do think that the President's management style betrays his inexperience about how organizations and people work. Yes, Barack Obama won, but his victory is no proof of managerial perspicacity: getting elected is as different from governing as does being hired for a job means that one will do well at it.

It takes time for organizations to develop processes that accomplish their mission. Over 200 years in development, the United States government has enough processes to satisfy the most ardent of bureaucrats (whether the processes are followed is, of course, a different matter.)

The red tape is frustrating to everybody, but most rules were put in place to make sure some long-forgotten error or ethical outrage doesn't happen again. And so we have multiple bids required on every contract in order that the taxpayer won't get overcharged, diversity measures to address past discrimination, and environmental impact statements to make sure we don't inadvertently cause the extinction of a species. Government checklists are many pages long. The whole system moves slow as molasses in a light-speed age.

Adding czars who have unclear authority (does a "green" czar, for example, override existing EPA and Transportation regulations, or is his simply another line appended to the signature page?) piles on the confusion, delay, and cost. There's a good reason why management consultants advise struggling corporate behemoths to eliminate layers and strengthen lines of authority and responsibility. Adding more bosses to an already-confused system is a mistake, whether the Administration is Republican or Democratic. Too bad we'll all have to pay for Barack Obama's management education. © 2009 Stephen Yuen

The Genuine Article

In the Army

Yesterday Senator Daniel K. Inouye (D-HI) turned 85. Congratulations to the Medal-of-Honor recipient, the second-most-senior member of the Senate, and a loyal but not hyper-partisan Democrat.

As the Chairman of the Appropriations Committee, he is not afraid to disagree with another Hawaiian-born politician who is trying to cut the F-22 and other defense programs. Senator Dan is a veteran of the Watergate and Iran-Contra political battles and a soldier who charged German machine-gun nests by himself and had his arm blown off by shrapnel. These latest kerfuffles are not even beanbag.

Per his website, “I am running for re-election to a ninth term in 2010”. If that’s truly what he wants, I hope he gets it. In a day when the word “hero” is overused, Senator Dan is the genuine article.

Lassitude Rewarded

My VW bug started, but the engine would die after a few seconds despite continued pumping of the accelerator. After five attempts I stopped in order to save the battery. Something was amiss in the fuel system, and I hoped it wasn’t the fuel pump or carburetor (remember those?). Finding parts for my 40-year-old clunker classic was difficult enough; installing and adjusting them properly was above my pay grade. If I was lucky, though, the problem would just be a clogged fuel line or fuel filter.

Fortunately, I had not made much progress on this year’s resolution to clear the clutter. Under a pile of wiper blades, bulbs, and hoses lay a fuel filter that had been purchased 15 or 20 years ago from the now-defunct parts dealer in Belmont. The plastic filter bent but did not break as it was twisted in the fuel line. I started the car and voila! it continued running.

There are fewer pleasures greater than fixing a problem oneself and finding a good use for something that would have been thrown out. Maybe I do need that length of copper tubing and that half-used bag of concrete mix after all.... © 2009 Stephen Yuen

Making Sure It's Dead

Under the CARS program just ended the clunker is disabled by pouring sodium silicate into the engine, freezing it permanently. However, clever handymen can surely salvage engines from auto wrecks and bring some cars back from the dead. Also, many destroyed clunkers will produce useable parts that will extend the life of the environmentally unfriendly fleet still on the road.

No, the following solution, that I first came across in 2007, ensures that four-wheeled zombies will never roll again. But if you love Bugs as I do, this video is not for the faint of heart.

Improving Picture

After we had our flatscreen TV delivered, DirecTV came the next day to upgrade the old satellite dish and digital video recorder to high-definition. It took the installer a couple of hours to mount the new dish in a different location (it was heavier and needed more support) and only another hour to hook up the DVR and TV.

The installer noted the household demographic and asked a couple of times if we wanted to add Mandarin channels. [NFL and MLB (baseball) are more in my sweet spot, but if I bought more channels I’d feel obligated to spend even more time in front of the can’t-call-it-tube-anymore.] No thanks.

Chafing under the cable monopoly, we switched to satellite when it became available five years ago and have been happy with the decision. The signal comes through clearly, and service interruptions are extremely rare. Also, unlike Comcast, DirecTV’s price hikes have been modest. HD service is a few dollars more, but when I called them today with a question, they knocked off $5 per month for six months. A small amount, a lagniappe, that sweetened the phone call.

Perhaps DirecTV wouldn’t have been as attentive without competition; AT&T, Comcast, and Dish are all vying for our eyeballs. And perhaps that’s a lesson we can apply to other industries.

Hawaiian Eye for Fashion

My high school (and college) classmate models appropriate courtroom attire for attorneys in the Honolulu Advertiser.

"For getting acquainted with a jury, I would wear a more colorful suit, to be more approachable and keep them awake, and maybe a skirt rather than pants," [Louise] Ing said. "I view skirts as being more traditional and conventional for women."

She's obviously ready for our class reunion next June...

Ostrich Land, Buellton

Ostrich Land is one of those places that is visited once, but probably only once. Nestled between Buellton and Solvang on the Central Coast, the tourist attraction raises emus and ostriches for the amusement of sightseers. We paid $4 each for two adult admissions, $1 for a bowl of feed, and $8 for a few ounces of ostrich jerky (from Texas) that tasted like beef. These ostriches aren’t bred for their meat—I wouldn’t have objected because these creatures were far from adorable and certainly not endangered---but for eggs and zoos.

The gift shop items, as well as admission tickets to the pens, were overpriced, but the owners have my sympathy. There were only a couple of other patrons when we were there, and the enterprise has high fixed costs with acres of valuable California land devoted to nothing but raising ostriches and emus.

Yes, the property could have been acquired decades ago when land was cheap, but opportunity cost can be a powerful incentive to switch to other uses. We’ve witnessed the driving force of opportunity cost close to home when a venerable race track made way for condos, restaurants, shops, and offices---nothing special about those except their high prices. I hope Ostrich Land remains viable, but don’t bet on it. © 2009 Stephen Yuen

This Wicked Market

Finance prof Meir Stetman has some useful tips about the psychology of investing. A few examples that resonated with me:

Goldman Sachs is faster than you:…..individual investors should never enter a race against faster runners by trading frequently on every little bit of news (or rumors).

Hindsight error leads us to think that we could have seen in foresight what we see only in hindsight. And it makes us overconfident in our certainty about what's going to happen.

Stop focusing on blame and regret and yesterday and start thinking about today and tomorrow.

Wealth makes us happy, but wealth increases make us even happier.

Related to the last observation is that memories of recent successes are more powerful than those of distant debacles. I am feeling chipper because stocks have recovered sharply from the March abyss. For example, two stocks that I own, Apple and Google, have climbed 90% and 40%, respectively, over the past six months.

However, as of this writing, prices (AAPL - $169; GOOG - $471) are still below their levels of one year ago.

And they’re well off their all-time highs (AAPL - $199.83; GOOG – $741.79) in 2007, as are some of my other investments. Rationally, I should not be feeling happy about my portfolio, which was higher two years ago, but I am.

Abusers know that, by merely letting up on beatings and deprivation, prisoners will feel grateful and even pleased about their improved circumstances. Forgotten are the long stretches of anguish, pain, and despair. And so this wicked market lures me back in. © 2009 Stephen Yuen

Why Ivy

Why we prefer Presidents who graduate from Eastern colleges:

The only two presidents who received a full college education in the West were Herbert Hoover and Richard Nixon.

Immigration ABC's

In a light piece on the 50th anniversary of Hawaii's statehood, ABC News leads with a mis-lead:

Had President Barack Obama been born two years earlier, his eligibility for the presidency may have been an actual problem for him.

The writer is attempting to grab attention by hinting that the relation of President Obama's birth year (1961) to Hawaii's admission year (1959) could have raised a consitutional issue about his eligibility to hold office. But as every kid born in 20th-century Hawaii has been told, we can grow up to be President. Per the Immigration and Nationality Act:

Sec. 305. [8 U.S.C. 1405] A person born in Hawaii on or after August 12, 1898, and before April 30, 1900, is declared to be a citizen of the United States as of April 30, 1900. A person born in Hawaii on or after April 30, 1900, is a citizen of the United States at birth. A person who was a citizen of the Republic of Hawaii on August 12, 1898, is declared to be a citizen of the United States as of April 30, 1900.

[While we're on the subject of mildly amusing asides, "ABC" is widely known in Asian immigration circles as "American Born Chinese", an acronym I first encountered in the 1970's.]

Stimulus Response

This summer I've done my part to stimulate the economy. Car repairs, several vacations, and multiple electronics purchases all put a dent in my savings account, but as a previous President advised, going shopping is my patriotic duty.

[Digression: the ex-President was mocked for merely talking about shopping, while his successor is lauded for passing out rebates on cars. One ($400 billion deficit) was a moron for spending too much, while another ($1.6 trillion deficit) is a genius. Good thing I got my MBA when I did; I don't understand postmodern economics.]

Some merchants are demonstrating how desperate they are for business by offering payment terms of three years or longer with no interest. (Only sign these agreements, dear reader, if you're absolutely sure you won't miss a payment, because the interest clawbacks are usurious.) So I've taken the merchants up on their offer and opened new lines of credit.

The most irritating step in the process is the "card activation". I called a toll-free number and was shunted to a live person who tried to conceal her Indian accent while she pressed me to buy credit-card insurance for a mere $9.99 a month. What's the point of saving on interest if you just give it back in fees? No, no, and no, I responded to ever more insistent questions that she recited from a programmed manual. Finally she gives up, activates my credit, and asks if I have any questions. When you want a conversation to end, don't do anything to prolong it. No. But thanks for allowing me to buy my new flatscreen TV.

Bing Boosted

Microsoft's search engine, Bing, has gained market share against its rivals:

Microsoft's search engine — renamed Bing as part of a June overhaul — ended July with a 8.9 percent share in the United States, up from 8.4 percent in the previous month, according to comScore Inc. Just before Bing's debut, Microsoft's search market share stood at 8 percent.

Google retained a commanding U.S. lead at 64.7 percent through July, down from 65 percent in June, comScore said. Yahoo's market share dipped to 19.3 percent in July from 19.6 percent in June.

Bing's boost isn't surprising. When Microsoft helpfully suggested that I upgrade my browser to Internet Explorer 8, the default search engine turned into Bing. I've manually changed it back to Google on our three PC's, but many users will hardly notice and go along.

Too Cheap

Dell builds good, cheap desktop computers. The Dell Dimension 4550 that we bought in 2003 is still chugging along. After I doubled its RAM to a now-paltry maximum of 1GB [per manufacturer’s specs, though others say it can be pushed to 2 GB], the Dimension is too slow to play the newer videogames and edit movies but is fine for web-surfing. The older members of the household find it to be perfectly adequate for most of their ossified needs.

The Dell Vostro 400 acquired in 2007 is significantly faster at 2.2 Ghz. Complaints about its speed by the gameplayers in the household were studiously ignored. Eventually the gameplayers sprung for a graphics card that seemed to do the trick.

One thing bugs me about the newer computer, though, that makes me reluctant to buy another Dell. The company no longer provides CDs or DVDs of the pre-loaded software. Instead, there’s a recovery section on the hard disk that the user supposedly can access by pressing cntrl F11.

There’s enough crud (of the electronic kind) that accumulates on the hard disk and causes the machine to slow noticeably over time, as well as freeze and crash. I’ve found over the years that, if I take the time to delete the entire disk and re-install the programs and data, the computer runs much faster. Last year I spent hours trying to access the recovery partition in order to do a clean re-install. No luck, and phone calls and e-mails to Dell didn’t do the trick.

Last week Windows XP became corrupted and the Vostro wouldn’t boot up. I won’t bore you, dear reader, with my false starts and amateurish workaround attempts. Eventually I sprung for a fresh copy of XP from Amazon, and after about eight hours the computer was up and running like new. I would have saved days and dollars if Dell had sent me backup disks. Yes, Dell builds good, cheap desktop computers, but there’s such a thing as being too cheap.

Weary of Pizzazz

Although California is among the bluest of blue states (Obama over McCain 61%-37% in the 2008 general election), Republicans are harboring hopes for 2010. The Chronicle quotes George Will:

"Although California is a blue state, it has had Republican governors for 30 of the last 43 years," he wrote. "The Republican revival nationally might begin here next year."

It’s no big secret why some may feel this way. After the Inauguration our problems weren’t solved; in fact they’ve gotten worse. Unemployment is over 10%, $20+ billion in State budget deficits have necessitated visible cutbacks in services (government offices are closed on Fridays), and individuals have taken huge hits to their net worth in real estate and financial assets. (Admittedly, the stock market recovery since March has improved investors’ mood to sour from panicky fear).

Unlike the Federal government, California can’t print currency, so further government expansion as a solution to its problems has hit a brick wall. Meanwhile, the private sector is shrinking as higher taxes and regulations have caused businesses to flee the State.

The high hopes of last year’s young and inexperienced dreamers have been tempered, if not dashed, by the real world. More government hasn’t made things better, and the party most closely identified with big government is dominant today but extremely vulnerable if conditions don’t improve.

However, generic conditions aren’t everything, we live in a personality-driven world. My personal tweet-takes on the candidates:

Jerry Brown (D) – State AG, former Oakland Mayor. Linda Ronstadt,‘70s tenure as Governor “Moonbeam.” Jesuit training, Lawyer. 2 years younger than John McCain.

Tom Campbell (R) – Business school dean, former Representative, socially liberal, economic conservative.

Gavin Newsom (D) – San Francisco Mayor, handsome jet-setter, 1st marriage to celebrity reporter, 2nd marriage to billionaire’s daughter. Gay-marriage advocate.

Steve Poizner (R) - State Insurance Commissioner, billionaire high-tech entrepreneur.

Meg Whitman (R) – ex-CEO of eBay, billionaire.

Republicans Poizner and Whitman have had outstanding success in business but lack a well-developed public image. In 2010 this may be an advantage to an electorate weary of pizzazz and eager for a resume with results.