The Sky Isn't Falling

NASDAQ investors feel the pain and pleasure more keenly than those who are broadly diversified

Even the Wall Street Journal can write the-sky-is-falling headline:

Trump’s Tariffs Wipe Out Over $6 Trillion on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

The message from Wall Street’s epic two-day rout, which destroyed $6.6 trillion in market value: There is nowhere to hide from Trump’s steep tariffs on goods imported from nearly every corner of the planet.

Manufacturers and retailers. Exporters and importers. High tech and low tech. Big names in virtually every industry were hit, from Silicon Valley behemoths like Apple and Meta Platforms to aerospace manufacturer Boeing to oil producer Devon Energy. Shares of private-equity giant Apollo Global Management lost about a fifth of their value this week, as did United Airlines.

When it was all over, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had lost more than 3,000 points for the week, or 7.9%, sending the blue-chip index into a correction. The tech-focused Nasdaq plunged 10% and into a bear market, meaning the index had fallen 20% from its previous high. The S&P 500 sank 9.1%.

The Magnificent Seven group of large tech stocks lost about $1.6 trillion in market value, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

“There are a lot of confused, scared and angry people out there,” said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers.

My portfolio was heavily weighted toward tech stocks during the 2000 dot-com bust and the 2008 financial crisis. Those were nervous times. I didn't understand those crises--and certainly had no confidence in their remedies--but eventually stocks recovered and moved to greater heights.

This time we do understand why markets fell, and it's a reasonable supposition that reversing the tariffs could lead to at least a partial recovery. On the bright side, there's always the chance that they could work in getting other countries to lower their trade barriers during bilateral negotiations. No, the sky isn't falling, at least not yet.

Just Nibbling

My entry points for four stocks

Since the stock market began dropping in February I've been nibbling at stocks that I formerly believed were too expensive relative to their growth prospects. Of course, I had not anticipated the stock market rout from the Trump tariffs announced yesterday, in which case I have bought too soon. (Analysts expect more declines as other countries, especially China, respond with "retaliatory" tariffs.)

I've invested less than 2% of my retirement monies so far and will close my eyes and buy more if declines continue. I am still confident that stock prices will be higher in a year, and though they were not bought at the bottom I will be glad I nibbled.

Tariffs: He Really Meant It

(photo Schiefelbein/AP/American Prospect)

The big news this afternoon was the new tariffs imposed on the rest of the world:

President Trump’s sweeping new tariff plan reverberated through global markets, with U.S. stock futures slumping and the dollar tumbling to its lowest level of the year. Popular stocks such as Apple, Amazon and Nike were among the largest retreaters in offhours trading and oil prices slid.

Here’s what to know:

All U.S. imports will be subject to a 10% tariff, effective April 5.

Trump will impose even higher rates on some nations that the White House considers bad actors on trade. For example, Japan faces a 24% duty and the European Union faces a 20% levy, effective April 9.

China will be hit with a new 34% tariff, adding to previous duties, like the 20% tariff Trump imposed over fentanyl. That means the base tariff rate on Chinese imports will be 54%, before adding pre-existing levies.

The tariffs are pegged to amounts Trump says other countries impose on the U.S. Here’s the math behind the levies.

Some global leaders are vowing to retaliate, while others are hopeful there is still time to strike a deal with the U.S.

Canada and Mexico are excluded from the reciprocal tariff regime. They are still subject to plans to impose 25% tariffs on most imports to the U.S., though the administration has given an exemption for autos and many other goods. Here’s a list of the products and countries exempted from the tariffs.

Trump’s 25% tariffs on foreign-made autos and parts took effect at 12:01 a.m. ET

Four years ago we reflected on the stagflation of the Seventies and how it took years for Ronald Reagan and Paul Volcker to wring inflation out of the system and restore economic growth.

The short-term pain hurt the Republican Party politically in the Eighties and may well hurt it this time as President Trump tries to reset 80 years of globalization and no-import-tariffs "free trade" practiced by the United States and no one else. It was clear to your humble blogger that President Trump did not talk about the pain of his policies in order to get elected, but it is better that he get it out of the way now while his party controls both the House and Senate.

This Time We Mean It

In 2019 we took the Federal Government's warning seriously and went to the Roseville DMV to get our Real ID.

Look for the bear on CA REAL ID's

You will need a REAL ID driver license or ID card if you want to continue using your driver license or ID card to do any of the following:

Board a domestic flight starting October 1, 2020.

Enter secure federal facilities or military bases starting October 1, 2020. (Note: Check with the federal facility/military base before your visit to verify their identification requirements.)

Purchase firearms or ammunition. (Note: Check with the firearms dealer you plan to visit to verify their identification requirements)

Procrastinators have been rewarded, because the Real ID deadline has been postponed three times. However, the Trump Administration seems to be serious when it says that there will be no more extensions.

A May 7 deadline to get a REAL ID is getting a lot more real—and setting off a mad scramble for U.S. travelers who have yet to get one.

Travelers will need a REAL ID-upgraded driver’s license, identification card or another compliant ID, like a passport, to board domestic flights starting on that date. Despite years of previous delays, federal officials say travelers need to take the May 7 date seriously. At Department of Motor Vehicles sites across the country, it appears many are.

Local DMV offices have added hundreds of appointment slots and extended operating hours to meet the flood of Americans trying to get an upgraded ID in time. From Tennessee to Pennsylvania, people report waiting hours in lines that stretch down city blocks or wrap around buildings. Some have flocked to Facebook groups and other social-media forums to strategize on where to find the least-crowded DMV locations. Others are just venting...

About one in five travelers currently flying through U.S. airports doesn’t have a REAL ID or other compliant form of identification, according to Transportation Security Administration officials. That’s despite the requirement being in the works for decades and states issuing REAL IDs since the 2010s.

If an individual had over five years to obtain a Real ID but didn't and now has to wait in long lines, he will not gain sympathy from me.

The silver lining in all this is that the Real ID should satisfy the requirements to prove citizenship and residency for the new Voter ID laws being enacted in various states. In California we had to provide "social security card, birth certificate, two proofs of California residency, e.g., property tax or utility bill or bank statement." Doing it once was a pain but at least once should be enough.