Feeling Better Every Day

Conservatives believe that President Obama’s historic expansion of the public sector is terribly wrongheaded, but so far a sizeable majority of the American people supports him.

President Barack Obama appears to be slightly more popular with Americans at the start of his second 100 days in office than he was, on average, during his first 100. Gallup Poll Daily tracking from May 7-9 finds 66% of Americans approving of how he is handling his job, compared with an average 63% from January through April.

Political junkies on both sides of the spectrum should not assume that the American public shares their enthusiasm or disdain for various public policy proposals. Most people have lives. They do not follow in great detail the progress on tax-law changes, Middle East negotiations, Cabinet appointments, stem-cell research, and cap-and-trade penalties. It’s all they can do to keep up with developments in the economy, health care, and the Iraq and Afghan wars.

It took years for the electorate to turn against President Bush---he was re-elected—and it’s likely that President Obama’s popularity will erode as slowly, if at all. (A military debacle in Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, or Pakistan could turn opinion quickly, which may be why Mr. Obama has moved very cautiously in reversing the Bush Administration’s severely criticized yet largely successful defense of the homeland.)

Another factor in Mr. Obama’s popularity may be the wealth effect. The stock market has nearly re-attained the levels last seen on Election Day (Nov. 4 - May 12, see below).

If one measures its performance since Inauguration (Jan. 20th), the market is sharply higher (following graph).

Ironically the growth in the investor class, a Republican objective, has made more Americans look kindly on the President. For many the recovery in their portfolios dwarfs any stimulus check that the Treasury could realistically send them. If the stock market continues its march upward, investors will overlook the odd Supreme Court nomination or workplace unionization rule and reward President Obama and his party at the ballot box. And yes, this is far from a profound claim--a rising stock market is an excellent predictor of a rising economy, which is one of the sure-fire paths to re-election. © 2009 Stephen Yuen