A few comments about tonight's budget deal and the main source of contention, Obamacare:
There was no serious danger that the U.S. Government would default on its obligations. Too many powerful constituencies of both political parties would not have let it happen.
It was obvious from the beginning that Republicans would be blamed for the government shutdown:
Of the 124 stories broadcast on the ABC, NBC and CBS nightly newscasts about the shutdown from Oct. 1 through Oct. 15, the [Media Research Center] study found 41 blamed Republicans or conservatives for the impasse, 17 blamed both sides and none specifically blamed Democrats.
The good news for Republicans is that the 24/7 news cycle operates in their favor. By next week their missteps should largely be forgotten, and news coverage will begin in earnest on Obamacare's woes (website freezes, premium rate hikes, security flaws, lost applications, etc.).
If the Republicans learned anything from this episode, they will make concessions during the next round of debt-limit negotiations in January and agree to fund Obamacare to a limited extent--perhaps the original 2014 projections made by the CBO when the law was passed in 2009. Republicans will appear reasonable, while the drip-drip-drip of Obamacare bad news could last into the November elections.
Lest you think, dear reader, that I am rooting for the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act to fail, the opposite is true. We are in the 55-to-65 cohort whose premiums will be thousands of dollars lower under the exchanges (in order to get the subsidy we have to manage our income down, which is easily arranged!).
It's just that anyone with any experience working in organizations could see this train wreck coming from miles, and years away.
© 2013 Stephen Yuen
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