Monday, May 07, 2018

The Last Natural Disaster

Former Vice President Al Gore's 2006 best seller, An Inconvenient Truth, popularized the notion that human activities were at least partly responsible for "natural" disasters: [bold added]
Hurricanes, floods, drought, tornadoes, wildfires, and other natural disasters have caused these [insurance] losses. Many can be linked to factors that are worsened by global warming. These natural disasters can be economically--as well as personally--devastating. Hurricane Katrina alone caused an estimated $60 billion in insured losses.
A new moral philosophy can therefore be divined:
1) Most natural disasters can be attributed scientifically to human activities (see table below). Disasters are not "natural" but manmade.
2) Disasters can be prevented, or at least mitigated, by changing human behavior.
3) Certain human behaviors lead to natural disasters that lead to death and destruction.
4) Therefore those behaviors should be stopped, and people who resist change are evil.

Below are disasters and their causes, as gleaned from media reports.

DisasterCause
Hurricanes/typhoons      Man-made climate change
EarthquakesHydraulic fracturing (fracking)
Drought Man-made climate change
Wildfires Man-made climate change
FloodsMan-made climate change (see a pattern?)
Really bad floodingBad levees and dams


If the new science is true, Kilauea's eruption may be the last true natural disaster.

There's no fracking within thousands of miles of Hawaii, so human activity didn't cause the Big Island's eruption or earthquakes. Greenhouse gases are a by-product, not a cause of the disaster.

People are not in immediate danger from the lava flow, but it has emitted tons of toxic gases that threaten the medium- and long-term health of thousands. For once there are no human villains, and we can get on with helping the victims.

The lava moves slowly but inexorably, destroying everything in its path.

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