The Storm Before the Calm

Getting the Pfizer vaccine in San Mateo.

We noted last month how California's zero ICU capacity should not cause Bay Area residents to panic, because our still-positive capacity was being offset by negative availability in Southern California (negative availability means that patients were using hospital beds not officially licensed as intensive care).

The latest reports have caused us to worry more. Headline: Bay Area ICU availability plummets to 0.7% as California tops 30,000 deaths

Intensive care availability in the Bay Area plummeted to 0.7% on Monday, an alarming drop over the weekend that was somewhat tempered by hospitalizations for COVID-19 showing signs of leveling off across the state and region.

Though availability is technically close to 0% by California’s metrics, that does not mean there are no ICU beds available. Instead, it means that many hospitals in the region are perilously over-capacity, and that people with COVID-19 are making up a high percentage of all patients in intensive care.

In San Mateo County we still have 20 beds available, which aren't much in a county of almost 800,000 people.

Here is the most recent available ICU capacity from each Bay Area county, and the number of available ICU beds, according to state data:

Alameda: 29.1% [68 beds available]

Contra Costa: 10.7% [36 beds available]

Marin: 8% [13 beds available]

Napa: 0% [1 bed available]

San Francisco: 28.7% [70 beds available]

San Mateo: 9.7% [20 beds available]

Santa Clara: 7% (includes surge beds) [39 beds available]

Solano: 4% [9 beds available]

Sonoma: 14.4% [10 beds available]

Monterey: Percentage N/A [41 beds available]

Santa Cruz: 0% [0 beds available]

There has been a lot of controversy over whether masks, social distancing, or stopping indoor gatherings can reduce the odds of catching the virus.

Acknowledging the uncertainty, we are going to play it safer by reducing our in person interactions and by going out even less. We're all going to be vaccinated soon, so don't blow it now.