Welcome to the Real World

People cite evidence to support an argument, but sometimes the evidence doesn't mean what they think it means.

Headline: Calif. weather expert issues dire warning on Trump's reported mass firings [bold added]

In a post on X Friday, Daniel Swain, a former UCLA climate scientist who now works at the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources, said the firings are alarming.

“If there were to be large staffing reductions at NOAA and NWS—[as] appears is now indeed underway, with credible reports of much larger further cuts on the horizon—there will be people who die in extreme weather events and weather-related disasters who would not have otherwise,” he said in the statement...

For example, the National Weather Service issued a “life-threatening, destructive” wind event warning for most of the Los Angeles region days before the destructive and deadly Palisades Fire began on Jan. 7, urging residents to “Stay alert to the forecast and follow instruction from emergency officials.”

Perhaps there were a few people in Palisades who paid attention--but certainly no one in authority to make any difference; Pacific Palisades was destroyed. If no one heeds the warnings, then the personnel that issue them serve little or no purpose.

Indeed, the people who lose their jobs may have integrity and be competent, but hundreds of such good people lose their jobs every day in private industry (Headline today: Two Bay Area tech giants announce huge layoffs at almost exact same moment).

Welcome to the real world, government employees.

Slip Sliding Away

Palos Verdes Peninsula in LA (Fallon/AFP/SFGate)

Rancho Palos Verdes is a coastal city in Los Angeles, west of Long Beach. The city has a population of 42,000 and is known

for its breathtaking ocean views, luxurious homes, and serene environment, [and] has been named the richest retirement town in the country, boasting a median household income of $166,747.

I became familiar with RPV when I helped an aviation executive put together business plans for a startup (we couldn't persuade enough investors to make a go of it). He loved living there not only for the aforementioned attributes but also because its schools made it an excellent place to raise his kids. Now the community is suffering from a slow-moving natural disaster: [bold added]

According to data captured by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory using airborne radar, a portion of the Palos Verdes Peninsula is slipping towards the Pacific Ocean as much as 4 inches per week.

California has experienced its share of natural disasters in recent years. However, its wealthiest residents have generally avoided feeling the consequences....until the Pacific Palisades fire showed that even they are vulnerable.

Repairing Pacific Palisades, and perhaps Rancho Palos Verdes, will require funds that only the Federal Government can provide, yet the Progressives that run California have passed legislation to "Trump-proof" California. Why poke the bear? The moneyed backers of the current regime can only wonder if it is really interested in protecting their interests.

After the Fall

House rich, cash poor: the 3 cities with the longest
tenured home ownership have astronomic house prices.

We are in that fortunate group of Bay Area homeowners who bought their homes in the late 20th century. We stretched to make the purchase in the hundreds of thousands of dollars, and in 2025 our houses could well have a market value of $2 million or more. As I've heard many middle-class homeowners marvel, "I couldn't afford to buy my house today."

Some Pacific Palisades homeowners had similar good fortune but have seen it all disappear this past week:

The fires also wiped out the homes of Californians in the middle class who bought into affluent neighborhoods decades ago, when the properties were still within reach for teachers, plumbers, and nurses. After years of rising home values, many of them have the bulk of their wealth tied up in homes that are now ash...

Now, those middle-class homeowners face a crushing housing crunch. Los Angeles was already experiencing an acute shortage of homes. Its real-estate prices are more than double the national level. In the wake of the fire, thousands of people desperate for temporary housing are flooding a cutthroat rental market, where bidding wars are breaking out for leases. Some are considering leaving for good.

Then there is perhaps the most daunting prospect of all for those who have lost their homes: battling with their insurance companies to rebuild...

For those who lost their homes, much of the value of their properties is in the land they still own, but rebuilding on it will be a long and expensive process. It’s unclear how many homeowners in these areas lack insurance or are underinsured. A number of leading insurers have stopped selling new home-insurance policies in the state. State Farm said last year it would not renew 69% of its property policies in the Pacific Palisades.

From an objective standpoint these fire victims are not worse off than the poorest members of our society. However, their precipitous fall is frightening to those of us who identify with them. There but for the grace of God go I.

Up in Smoke

LA Mayor Bass and Gov. Newsom tour the ruins of the
Palisades business district (Photo by Thayer/TNS/Chron)

Chronicle "reporter" Kurtis Alexander says we should go easy on criticisms of politicians for their responsibility for the LA fires:

If you were to scan social media for what was behind this week’s deadly Southern California wildfires, you might think leaders in Los Angeles and Sacramento went out of their way to push policies to invite disaster.

The mayor of Los Angeles cut the city’s fire department budget, one pervasive criticism goes. The fire department hired the wrong people, others say. The city didn’t fill the reservoirs that feed the fire hydrants, another asserts. The state didn’t send enough water from Northern California for the firefight, yet another criticism goes.

While the series of wind-driven fires that has blasted Los Angeles County certainly exposed government shortcomings, media experts are quick to note that many of the accusations circulating online are less about real problems and more about pushing an agenda. And some are flat-out wrong.

Should you care to read the rest of the editorialist's (not "reporter"'s) defense against accusations of poor water management (both LA and statewide), emphasizing Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion over merit, misplacing budget priorities, and why we shouldn't dismiss climate change so quickly, click on the link above.

Your humble blogger understands that people have been overly quick to seize onto these criticisms but also understands that the Progressive ideologues who have run California for a quarter-century are responsible for that portion of the disaster that cannot be laid at the feet of Mother Nature.

And that portion will be significant, no matter how hard the people in charge will try to deflect the blame.

[Note: the Mayor and Governor's tight-lipped expressions aren't typical of sadness or concern. Could it be because they both realize their political futures have gone up in smoke?]

The Fire This Time

Palisades neighborhood (Swope/AP/WSJ)

Measured on the basis of lives lost (85) and acreage burned (153,000) the 2018 Camp Fire that devastated Paradise, CA is still the most destructive wildfire in California history. However, the ruination of Pacific Palisades, home to the rich and famous, is far more likely to change the future of California.

Pacific Palisades is known for its scenery, with views of the ocean and the Santa Monica Mountains. It is a quiet, secluded atmosphere. The neighborhood sits between state parks and the ocean, offering residents easy access to hiking and the beach.

While it is populated with high-end homes and gated communities, there is also a small, walkable downtown with boutiques and cafes. Celebrities who have bought homes in the area include Reese Witherspoon, Ben Affleck and Jennifer Garnerand Steven Spielberg...

The typical home value in Pacific Palisades is $3.4 million. Sixteen homes on the market are priced at $10 million or more in Pacific Palisades, according to Zillow. In neighboring Brentwood, 18 properties meet that threshold.

When the rich and famous encounter the California government's multi-year delays in granting rebuilding permits, that may well be the proverbial straw that breaks the back of Progressive dominance in government. Add to that the difficulties in finding homeowners' insurance and the incompetence in water management and wildfire prevention, the conflagration that engulfed Pacific Palisades may well start a metaphorical fire in the halls of Sacramento.