All right, let’s cut to the chase or rather 2010. In 2009 all the talk and trade sanctions in the world didn’t stop the Iranians from successfully test-firing their nuclear missile. Your CIA Director comes to you with “slam-dunk” evidence that they are going to launch several more at Israel. The Israelis can’t take them all out on their own.
You question his statement, of course, given the CIA’s dismal track record for getting the facts straight. So you call the French, the British, the Germans, the Saudis, the Chinese, the Indians, the Russians and our new friends the Iraqis. No one sends your call to voicemail, Mr. President, and they all say the same thing: yes, it’s true, Israel will be devastated if not destroyed.
You’re still not 100% sure, so you won’t strike pre-emptively. You threaten (either privately or very publicly) the destruction of the aggressor, hoping his self-interest will prevail. Of all the leading Presidential candidates of both parties, who would not be believed if he or she made such a threat? Just one, and he is going to be the Democratic nominee.
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