Second Wake-up Call

While California worry-warts are scooping up iodine tablets despite assurances that the radiation from Japan is negligible, IMHO a much greater concern is the warning from a former USGS geologist that a large earthquake will hit the West Coast in the coming week.

Jim Berkland, who predicted the 1989 Loma Prieta temblor, says that unusual marine animal behavior and "perigean" full moons (when the moon is closest to earth) are correlated with earthquakes. According to Mr. Berkland, we have recently experienced large fish kills in Redondo Beach and Mexico, while whales have been sighted near shore in San Diego; the theory is that animals are sensitive to the changes in the earth's magnetism that precede earthquakes.

Another Berkland predictor is the increased gravitational force caused by an approaching moon. Tomorrow, March 19th, we will see the closest (222,000 miles) full moon in 18 years. The seismic window will last from March 19th to March 26th.



Many scientists do not accept the perigean-moon earthquake hypothesis:

Scientists at NASA have stressed that previous perigees have not coincided closely with major earthquakes or tsunamis. The Indian Ocean tsunami occurred on Dec. 26, 2004, some 15 hours before the moon was full that month, but the moon was not approaching perigee at that time -- it was actually further away for that particular full moon. The earthquake in Japan occurred on March 11, and the moon was also not near full phase, nor was it particularly close. While the moon can create tides, those forces are too small to have much effect on the Earth's crust.

While we hope Mr. Berkland is wrong, we're spending a few hours stocking up on supplies and preparing for the worst. Our lack of preparation was exposed by last week's tsunami. How many wake-up calls do we need?