Tsunami Warning Cancelled

At 10:44 this morning three iPhones in our house blared an emergency warning. A 7.0 earthquake had occurred in the waters off Humboldt County, over 260 miles north of San Francisco. The earthquake was just close enough--and Foster City just close enough to the Bay--that we could not disregard the dangers of a tsunami.

And so it was that our eyes were glued to the TV on the off chance that an evacuation would be announced. To our relief the tsunami warning was canceled within the hour:

Temblor CEO and Stanford Geophysics lecturer Ross Stein gave ABC7 News an explanation for the change. He said the earthquake initially appeared to be a 6.0-magnitude shallow earthquake, the kind that involves “a lot of vertical motion of the seafloor, which tends to produce more tsunamis.”

It didn’t take long, however, for scientists to realize it was a much larger 7.0-magnitude earthquake and a different type of earthquake that is unlikely to produce a large tsunami, he said.

It was “a very typical, garden-variety event on this northern extension of the San Andreas Fault, which we call the Mendocino Fault Zone. In that respect it doesn’t move the sea floor up and down very much,” said Stein.

Of course, we were relieved that there was no tsunami. It would have drastically inconvenienced our Christmas shopping activities!

But seriously...this was another demonstration of the inadequacy of our evacuation plans. We did have "go" bags at the ready, every car had at least half a tank, and we did have an idea where to seek temporary shelter. However, what to take and what to leave behind had not been finalized, I had not digitized and stored key documents in the cloud, nor had we updated our wills since 2002 (we do have draft revisions that have not been executed).

At least we know what our top New Year resolutions will be.

Second Wake-up Call

While California worry-warts are scooping up iodine tablets despite assurances that the radiation from Japan is negligible, IMHO a much greater concern is the warning from a former USGS geologist that a large earthquake will hit the West Coast in the coming week.

Jim Berkland, who predicted the 1989 Loma Prieta temblor, says that unusual marine animal behavior and "perigean" full moons (when the moon is closest to earth) are correlated with earthquakes. According to Mr. Berkland, we have recently experienced large fish kills in Redondo Beach and Mexico, while whales have been sighted near shore in San Diego; the theory is that animals are sensitive to the changes in the earth's magnetism that precede earthquakes.

Another Berkland predictor is the increased gravitational force caused by an approaching moon. Tomorrow, March 19th, we will see the closest (222,000 miles) full moon in 18 years. The seismic window will last from March 19th to March 26th.



Many scientists do not accept the perigean-moon earthquake hypothesis:

Scientists at NASA have stressed that previous perigees have not coincided closely with major earthquakes or tsunamis. The Indian Ocean tsunami occurred on Dec. 26, 2004, some 15 hours before the moon was full that month, but the moon was not approaching perigee at that time -- it was actually further away for that particular full moon. The earthquake in Japan occurred on March 11, and the moon was also not near full phase, nor was it particularly close. While the moon can create tides, those forces are too small to have much effect on the Earth's crust.

While we hope Mr. Berkland is wrong, we're spending a few hours stocking up on supplies and preparing for the worst. Our lack of preparation was exposed by last week's tsunami. How many wake-up calls do we need?

The Japanese Way

During the 1970's and 1980's everyone in business studied the "Japanese way." Japanese companies ran rings around their competitors. They innovated, made the highest quality products, and charged a reasonable price. They first competed in, then dominated many of their markets.

Japanese companies peaked in the late 1980's. Since then they have found that staying on top is harder than getting there. To be sure, many still lead their respective markets, but in the global economy of the 21st century one needs more than hard work, attention to detail, and consensus to win consistently.

After the March 11th earthquake, tsunami, and potential nuclear meltdowns, the conversation about the transformation of Japanese business has become unimportant, if not irrelevant. The issue is survival, and if things play out as they should, recovery.

I have no doubt that the Japanese will rebuild and become stronger than ever. After World War II their culture demonstrated astonishing recuperative powers following devastation much worse than the 2011 quake.

The news clips may be as wrenching as those seen after any calamity, but noticeably absent are blame, self-pitying, and signs of civic disorder.

Venture capitalists say that they bet on management over technology. I would bet on the character of the Japanese people. [By the way, I have an investment in a Japanese ETF that's gotten hammered. I'm not selling. Here's one article that suggests that it might be a good time to (cautiously) invest in Japan.]

Safe Over Sorry

Hawaii has suffered property damage, mostly to piers and boats, from the tsunami. No injuries or deaths have been reported. [Update: the Honolulu mayor has issued an all-clear statement.] [Sodden thought: I've seen too many movies where the worst happens after the politician or general says the danger has passed!]

The gauge at Nawiliwili Harbor showed a 2.1 foot surge; Haleiwa recorded a 3.6 foot surge; and Hanalei recorded 2.8 feet. The weather service says a gauge at Hilo Harbor showed a 2-foot surge. Kawaihae saw a 2.8 foot increase.

The videos of the destruction in Japan spooked nearly everyone who could have been in the tsunami's path. Last night (of course living in earthquake country we should have done this long time ago) we packed our bug out bags and reviewed our bug out lists. Fortunately, we didn't have to see whether our plans were going to work.

The news this morning showed that the damage in California paralleled that in Hawaii. Marine assets have been heavily damaged in Crescent City and Santa Cruz, but no persons have been hurt. [Update: a man who tried to photograph the waves near Crescent City has likely been killed.]

So what's with all the civil defense sirens, evacuations, and school closures--were they precautionary overkill? Perhaps this time. But one of these days we are going to have to implement those plans, and we have the suffering people of Japan to thank for reminding us do them.

Restless Night Ahead

Bay Area residents who have difficulty falling asleep will have real trouble tonight. The magnitude 8.9 earthquake that struck Japan last night produced a tsunami that destroyed wide swaths of farmland in northeastern Japan. The horrific videos are looping endlessly on the major channels.

If it does hit Hawaii, the tsunami is expected to make landfall in about three hours (2 a.m. HST). The ETA in San Francisco is currently 8:07 a.m. PST. Reasoning and experience suggest that the wave will have substantially dissipated by the time it reaches California. We do live on Bay flatlands, but the 25-mile distance between Foster City and the Golden Gate provides additional reassurance.

However, the probability that we'll have to evacuate isn't zero. I'll have to get up early, check what happened in Hawaii (the many relatives we have there are an additional source of worry), and pack people and materiel in the car if necessary.

Yes, it's going to be a restless night ahead.