Sticking Around

St. Francis on Horseback by Bufano (1956)

The Hillsdale Shopping Center in San Mateo is one of the oldest shopping malls in the Bay Area. Of the original tenants only Macy's remains, Sears having left last year.

The mall has undergone several facelifts during its 65-year history. Hillsdale is owned by descendants of David Bohannon, the original developer, and is one of the few privately-owned major shopping centers in California. Family money is typically patient money, one explanation of why Hillsdale has been able to weather the secular decline of retail (Mervyn's, Emporium, and Sears once had large stores here).

I enjoy wandering through Nordstrom and Apple, taking in the Bufano sculptures, and having a cocktail at Paul Martin's. Soon there will be a bowling alley and cineplex.

Sometimes, if you stick around long enough, things will turn in your direction.

Mother's Day, 2017

View from the shopping center on Sunday afternoon

Unlike last year, the lady of the house didn't want home cooking but take-out from the shopping center across the street. No, my pride wasn't hurt; I got to watch an exciting basketball game instead of slicing, dicing, marinating, and grilling.

On Mother's Day everybody wins.

Choosing to Pay More

The Nordstrom perfume counter had a lot of traffic.

Retail may be dead (the stocks of retail stores took another beating this week), but you wouldn't know it from the crowds at the mall the day before Mother's Day. I had to drive around several parking lots until I found a third-floor space late in the day.

I was happy to see the lines and didn't mind the jostling. Though online shopping is often both cheaper and more convenient than the mall, I've been going out of my way to patronize brick-and-mortar stores for over six years. A world where we can no longer buy something we need from a store nearby is a price I'm not willing to pay.

It's Not the Firing, It's the Reaction

2013: Obama's GOP FBI Pick a Folk Hero for Democrats (ABC)

Regarding the President's firing of FBI Director James Comey, the Economist gives two choices:
The sacking of James Comey: Was Donald Trump being incompetent, or malign?

If anything, the subheadline understates the vitriol in the editorial. [bold added]

Is the administration chaotic and unworthy of its place in a mighty tradition, but more farcical than corrupting—a madcap approximation of government by a reality-television star? Or is Mr Trump, who has just become the first president since Richard Nixon to fire a man who was leading a formal investigation into his associates, and perhaps himself, a threat to American democracy.

Ex-Director Comey wasn't exactly a paragon of leadership. Per the Economist, on November 7th:

FBI directors do not need to be popular, but they do need to have the confidence of their staff and, ideally, America. It is hard to think James Comey, who made a second belated intrusion into the general election on November 6th, has much of either currently...

Everything about Mr Comey’s performance on this issue seems lamentable. His criticism of Mrs Clinton’s “carelessness” in July was as irregular as it was damaging to the Democratic nominee. According to FBI protocol, he should have limited his remarks to the progress and outcome of his investigation...

It has been a truly wretched affair.

I am not a Donald Trump partisan--I didn't vote for him--but there's a plausible case that Mr. Trump has acted responsibly by firing a subordinate whose actions have harmed the effectiveness of the agency he leads. Getting rid of a man whose own competence was questioned for half of 2016 would have made sense to the Economist (inferred by its November 7th editorial) if done by President Obama.

The fact that the action was initiated by President Trump has triggered an over-the-top response by the Economist's editorial page and demonstrates how extreme partisanship ("If the president nominates one of his stooges, such as Rudy Giuliani or Chris Christie, to replace Mr Comey, that opposition will grow"---note: stooges are the former Mayor of New York City and the current Governor of New Jersey) has overwhelmed the pages of a once-august publication.

Sad!

Trash Into Treasure

Older Demographic

Forget 3-D. Give the codgers their side-scrolling narrative.

When my reflexes were quicker, I was pretty good at the arcade. Now the games I play on various devices are more thoughtful than twitchy. The vast majority continue to be produced for younger folk, but I seem to be in the target audience for a game that will be released next week, Old Man's Journey:

A lighthouse like a fairy tale tower jutting from the flank of a colorful cottage, a train chugging past Arcadian fields framed by faraway peaks, a hot air balloon that lifts an aged man whose hoary beard parallels the considerable slope of his belly. This is Old Man's Journey, a contemplative adventure for PC, iOS and Android.

I'm tempted to buy it, not for the gameplay, but to show support for games that cater to an older demographic. But it doesn't sound like a barrel of laughs:

"A final chance to seek amends and find your heart, once lost at sea."

The challenges appear to be largely puzzle driven, though nothing too intense, per the game's Steam page, which notes that the studio's focus is more on the protagonist's late-stage story, which explores "heartache, regret and hope through the old man's eyes."

Well, at least if the player dies, he gets to start all over (right?)

The Doctor Knows

I didn't lose the 10 pounds that was last year's goal, but the doctor was pleased that I did lose five. Serum glucose, triglycerides, and cholesterol all were high, according to the lab, but the readings were lower than last year's. I'll continue to take a 10 mg. (low dose) statin pill every night. It may or may not be the cause of the improvement, but why take chances?

We set an appointment for next year, with new objectives. Although they look easy, moderately difficult goals wouldn't be attempted. He knows me very well.

Fake Audio

(Network World image)

Voice "cloning", in which a computer reads text aloud in a voice meant to sound like a specific individual, was once a niche product for those who were in danger of losing their speech to disease. Now the technology has become so advanced and easy to implement that voice-ID security systems are being jeopardized [bold added]

any voice—including that of a stranger—can be cloned if decent recordings are available on YouTube or elsewhere. Researchers at the University of Alabama, Birmingham, led by Nitesh Saxena, were able to use [Carnegie-Mellon's] Festvox to clone voices based on only five minutes of speech retrieved online. When tested against voice-biometrics software like that used by many banks to block unauthorised access to accounts, more than 80% of the fake voices tricked the computer. Alan Black, one of Festvox’s developers, reckons systems that rely on voice-ID software are now “deeply, fundamentally insecure”.

Public figures who are caught "on tape" with embarrassing utterances can say with increasing believability that the recording is "fake audio." And why not? As everything has gone digital--with enormous benefits, to be sure--everything can be faked.

Venezuela: A Chance to Show What the Church Can Do

Venezuela's declining economic indicators (WSJ Graphic)

Following his election as President, Hugo Chávez was acclaimed by Hollywood, the press, and academia as he nationalized major sectors of the economy. Under Venezuelan socialism, aka the "Bolivarian revolution", he was able to raise the standard of living in the first decade of the 21st century (Wikipedia: "there were improvements in areas such as poverty, literacy, income equality, and quality of life occurring primarily between 2003 and 2007").

When oil prices fell, Hugo Chávez and his successor Nicolás Maduro clamped down further on what remained of private industry to maintain the level of government spending. Venezuela's downward spiral was predictable by non-partisan students of socialism, but the degree of the plunge has been horrendous.

Hordes of people, many with children in tow, rummage through garbage, an uncommon sight a year ago. People in the countryside pick farms clean at night, stealing everything from fruits hanging on trees to pumpkins on the ground, adding to the misery of farmers hurt by shortages of seed and fertilizer. Looters target food stores. Families padlock their refrigerators.

As cracks appeared in the Chávez edifice, opponents of socialism crowed vindication. However, in 2017 Venezuela's misery has reached the point where no one can derive satisfaction from ideological I-told-you-so's.

"Authorities have resisted offers of food and aid from abroad," so donations through the government are currently out of the question.

The Catholic Church is a possible avenue; the Episcopal Church is another. For decades organized Christianity has been struggling to show that it is relevant. Here's an opportunity to show what it can do.

Coverage is Not Care

A few thoughts on the American Health Care Act (HR 1628, plus amendments) that was passed by the House last Thursday:

1) Senate Republicans are composing their own bill. Assuming it passes (a big if under the Senate's complex procedures), the House and Senate will have to reconcile their respective versions. There is zero chance that HR 1628 will be sent to President Trump in its present form. (As a matter of academic interest, see WSJ analysis if the House bill does become law.)

2) House Democrats mocked their Republican counterparts, suggesting that the latter would be thrown out of office in 2018 by the vote repealing supposedly popular Obamacare. Be careful, Dems, losers who believe they have no life after November, 2018 may ram the whole conservative agenda down your throats in the next 18 months.

3) House Republicans were divided over both how and how much to fund hard-to-insure people with pre-existing conditions, but the Senate Republicans' thorniest issue seems to be over Medicaid expansion.

20 million Americans gained health insurance after Obamacare was passed. Most were added under Medicaid. Politifact:

[Senator Rand] Paul said the vast majority of people that got insurance under Obamacare got it through Medicaid. About 20 million people gained coverage and about 14.5 million of those were under Medicaid or CHIP. But a sizeable fraction of that 14.5 million were eligible before the Affordable Care Act took effect. One estimate said about a quarter of them were previously eligible. Another estimate put it as high as half.

There is some guess work behind all the reports. Medicaid might account for slightly more than half of those who gained coverage. Most people wouldn’t say that amounts to the vast majority, but it is likely still the majority.

The numbers tell the story: if Obamacare is great coverage, then Medicaid (Medi-Cal in California), with more than half the Obamacare additions, must also be great. In 2012 the Mercury News detailed why many doctors do not accept Medi-Cal patients. In a 2015 follow-up editorial the Mercury News said the problem is getting worse:

But it’s becoming increasingly clear that the influx of 2.7 million Californians to the Medi-Cal roles [sic] is putting a strain on the state’s medical system....It’s not hard to discern why so many California doctors are loath to treat Medi-Cal patients. The paltry $16 reimbursement rate for a primary care visit makes it difficult for physicians to justify the appointment.

12 million Californians, about 30% of the population, are covered under Medi-Cal. They are putatively "covered," but are they getting health care?

Ducking from View

Ducks roam the neighborhood with impunity, stopping traffic, fouling decks, and quacking loudly when approached. Just last month we had to help a new family escape from our backyard.

A pair stopped by this week, and I happened to be holding week-old (mold-free) bread intended for the compost bin. Impulsively I tossed them a couple of slices.

They were back in the same spot the next day. I stayed inside. Psst! Are they gone yet?

Biased News

Desiree Fairooz confronts Condoleeza Rice in 2007. She
attempted to intimidate her with red-stained hands, but Dr.
Rice responds with a fearless expression. (Guardian photo)

There are several techniques to bias a news article without lying. One way is to leave out important facts that may cause the reader to take the opposite position from the writer (example: advocates of compact fluorescent bulbs omitted mention of mercury poisoning).

Another is to bury countervailing information at the bottom of the article. Example from the Guardian.

Headline: Woman who laughed at Jeff Sessions hearing convicted for being 'disorderly'

Desired Reaction: someone was convicted for laughing at the Attorney General. He sounds like a hypersensitive jerk who throws his weight around.

Lead sentence: A jury in Washington has convicted a woman who was arrested after laughing during a confirmation hearing for the attorney general, Jeff Sessions.

Desired Reaction: Yep, the article matches the headline. Arrested for laughing? This is America!

Well, if you make it to paragraph 10 [bold added]:

A spokesperson for the jury that convicted Fairooz, who spoke to the Huffington Post on condition of anonymity, said: “She did not get convicted for laughing. It was her actions as she was being asked to leave.”

While newspapers now take advocacy positions in the news section, most still retain enough journalistic ethics so as not to deliberately mislead. The Guardian isn't one of them.

Making the Navy Great Again

The Zumwalt in San Diego (NRO photo)

Amidst the hoopla of the election, we missed the commissioning of the U.S. Navy's $4.4 billion battleship, the Zumwalt.

The first of the "Zumwalt" class of destroyers, the ship has been plagued by cost overruns and failures of unproven technology.

When (and if) it becomes fully operational, according to Vice Admiral Tom Rowden

Its advanced technology and capabilities allow it to do a range of defensive and offensive missions, and project power, wherever it is needed, and that's generating tremendous excitement within the Navy, Rowden said.

USN Capt. James A. Kirk

We are nevertheless confident that its missions will be successful. The commander of the Zumwalt is (drumroll)...Captain James Kirk!

What's His Motivation?

One more piece of crackling dialogue from the Accountant:

Brilliant! How many takes were there before they got this scene right?

Worth It

Financial institutions are using the latest technology to analyze account activity and provide insights to account holders, such as "your expenses are exceeding your income" (as pictured right).

Knock me over with a feather...so that's why I've had to transfer $2,000 a month into this account! I need to do a budget! Boy, those high bank fees are worth it.