Arnold: the Triumph of Hope Over Experience?

The old saw about second marriages being the triumph of hope over experience applies to the electorate and its leaders. Many of us invest the newly elected with our hopes, which are dashed when leaders begin to make decisions and negotiate their inevitable compromises. The more experienced (jaded?)--myself included--have been burned often enough that we keep our expectations very low. So, paradoxically in a way and by merely avoiding calamity, our new governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, has a chance to pleasantly surprise the cynics. Versus our diminished expectations, the odds of him being judged a "success" are good, and the proof will be his re-election in 2006.

Solely by goring a few oxes Arnold will give the impression that he will have accomplished much. Trial lawyers, energy companies, public employees' unions, and Indian casinos are ripe targets because these groups all have given the impression that they have reaped windfall profits by currying favors from politicians. (The public does tolerate those who "earn" their fortunes without gaming the system. Examples are high-tech entrepreneurs, movie stars, and professional athletes.)

The question on people's minds in the next couple of years is not Ronald Reagan's famous "are you better off than you were four years ago"--the answer is obviously no, even if one's net worth has improved, because of the war against terrorism--but "who will keep me safe?" But this is a question to be addressed by the Federal government and is more relevant to determining the outcome of the 2004 Presidential election.

At the State and local level the question for our leaders is "while the country is fighting the war on terrorism, who will make sure that we're all in this together, that no groups are profiting unjustly while other groups [e.g., National guard reserves] are sacrificing enormously?" (Okay, so maybe that's more like two questions.)

Fairness in sharing the burden--just by taking office our new governor is a shining example because he is giving up $10-$20 million per year in motion picture earnings (and it's not likely he'll be able to pick up where he left off because he's already long in the tooth for an action hero). That is why he has a chance, and yes, I'll be rooting for him to succeed.