Forecasting is Uncertain, Especially About the Future

The Election
Monday night's debate was the least disputatious of the three debates between President Obama and Governor Romney. The consensus seems to be that the President won the debate but not enough to change the minds of Romney supporters.

For what it's worth, your humble observer thinks that Mr. Obama may still eke out a win, but the likelihood is that Mitt Romney will be the next President, and a good chance that he will win by a significant margin. There is no possibility that President Obama will get even 300 electoral votes (he won 365 in 2008, and 270 are needed to win).

iPad Mini
Tuesday's announcement of the iPad Mini initially triggered disappointment because of its high price relative to the competition:

The iPad Mini tablet, which starts at $329, is a cousin to the original iPad, whose screen is about a third larger. But Apple's smaller tablet is priced well above Amazon.com Inc.'s Kindle Fire HD and Google Inc.'s Nexus 7—two tablets which are similar in size and some specs. Those devices cost $199 or $249 depending on the amount of memory.

Apple also announced upgrades to existing products that were understandably overlooked in the hoopla over the Mini. Macintoshes (Mac-minis, iMacs, and MacBooks) and the regular iPad all have become faster under the hood without a price increase. Our household already has ordered a couple of the new Mac offerings.

As for the iPad Mini, critics would do well to remember how the iPhone 4S took off after an underwhelming reception. It could become the hot new gaming platform or be just the right size for the distaff set--the iPhone screen is too small for many applications, yet the regular iPad is too big to fit in a handbag. Besides, Apple still has room to drop the price later to push sales.

World Series
Please, not another post about the Giants, you say, but after tonight's game how can we not comment? The Giants were heavy underdogs in Game 1 to Detroit and its otherworldly pitcher Justin Verlander.

Three home runs in one World Series game by third baseman Pablo Sandoval---a feat matched by only three other players (Babe Ruth, Reggie Jackson, and Albert Pujols) in history---and a superb performance by supposedly washed-up pitcher Barry Zito added compelling drama to a game that an 8-3 final score would normally belie. Some over-the-top sports reporters are completely reversing their original predictions and calling the Series "over" because the Giants beat the Tigers' ace in one game.

Whoa, the ball takes funny bounces, political sentiments can shift overnight, and tech dross can turn into gold and vice versa. Forecasting is uncertain, especially about the future. © 2012 Stephen Yuen