Shades of Philadelphia

After winning game 5, the San Francisco Giants are going back to Kansas City for games 6 and 7 (if needed) with a 3-2 lead in the World Series.

The question on the talk shows this morning is: would you rather be the visiting Giants who need to win one, or the Royals, who need to win two on their home field? History, with a little math, provides the answer. In the National League Championship Series of 2010 the Giants were in the identical situation vis-à-vis the Phillies:

Let’s say that the Phillies are 3-2 (winning 60% of the time) favorites to win each game they play against the Giants. Combining the probabilities, the Giants are 40% + (40% x 60%) = 64% likely to win one of the next two games....

Even if one thinks that the Phillies are 2-1 favorites in these home games—in other words twice as good as the Giants—the same calculation [33% + (33% x 67%)= 55%] still shows the Giants more likely to prevail than not.

The Giants ended up beating the Phillies, 3-2, in game 6 and went to the 2010 World Series, where they triumphed over the Texas Rangers.

Current Las Vegas odds give the Giants a 42% probability of winning game 6, implying an overall greater-than-60% probability of being crowned champions.

Mayor Lee should start planning the parade.