The Picture that Straightens, not Sags, Over Time

Pyramid to dome to column (Economist graphic)

A profound shift with consequences that are only partially grasped by policy makers [bold added]:

The pyramid was characteristic of human populations since the day organised societies emerged. With lifespans short and mortality rates high, children were always the most numerous group, and old people the least. A population chart of England in 1700 looks like a pyramid, as well.

But now look at the chart of the global population in 2015. It looks more like the dome of the Capitol building in Washington, DC (middle chart). Young children are still the largest group, but now make up only 10% of the population, and those above them are almost as big a cohort, with 9.5%. The age groups start to become markedly smaller only about the age of 40.

Some forecast a forlorn future where "looking after parents and grandparents will be as big a, or a bigger, social requirement ­as bringing up children and grandchildren."

But there's another view. Extrapolating from the current pace of technological advancement, it is entirely possible that developments in medicine, robotics, and/or artificial intelligence will enable the old to live independently (and happily) much longer than today. (As I near retirement, I am keenly interested the future turns out that way!)