Tuesday, November 22, 2016

Head for the Hills

(Geology.com graphic)
Seismophobics who live in Northern California have taken ever-so-slight comfort in predictions that the next big one will hit Southern California first, after which Northerners can start worrying in earnest.

Now scientists say that the entire San Andreas fault could rupture, wreaking devastation on North and South alike: [bold added]
As many as 3.5 million homes could be damaged in an 8.3-magnitude quake along a roughly 500-mile portion of the fault—compared with 1.6 million homes damaged if only the northern part of the fault were to break, or 2.3 million if the southern piece ruptured.

The damage to homes alone could total $289 billion, compared with a previous range of $137 billion on the southern portion of the fault and $161 billion in the north, according to the CoreLogic analysis.

Researchers say a statewide quake above 8.0 would likely hit the Golden State once at least every 2,500 years. “We are talking about very rare earthquakes here,” said Maiclaire Bolton, a seismologist and senior product manager for CoreLogic.
I admit to being math-challenged in that bimillennial and centennial events cause me about the same amount of concern. The young 'uns are worried about getting their toes wet from seas rising, while I fear my house coming down around my ears. In either case the solution is the same. Head for the hills.


Tim Yuen said...

Tsunami potential to Hawaii?

Stephen said...

Frankly, if I were living in Hawaii I would be more concerned about a "megatsunami" from the collapse of the Big Island lava shelf.