Future Dimly Perceived

Don't bring me flowers any more (mic.com image)

Scientists have discovered a way to make morphine and heroin from glucose. While the steps are complicated---currently beyond the capabilities and equipment of non-chemists--the technology will undoubtedly develop to the point where it will be feasible to manufacture one's own.

The implications are profound for the War on Drugs, as users of home-made supply overwhelm law enforcement and already overcrowded prisons. After generations of "war" society will have to confront the fact that it won't be able to lock up everyone who abuses heroin, morphine, oxycodone, and other opiates.

The implications are equally profound for Third-World poppy growers and drug cartels whose economic models will be upended:

If strains of yeast that can turn out opiates are liberated from laboratories and pass into general circulation, brewing morphine-containing liquor for recreational use will be easy. It will be illegal, of course. And the authorities will, no doubt, try to crack down on it. But those who smuggle the stuff from places like Afghanistan may find themselves driven out of business by home-brew opium clubs based in garages.

Solar panels, 3D printing/manufacturing, home-brewed drugs, self-driving cars, and the World Wide Web are only a few examples of the individual empowerment that is disrupting giant institutions--and society--and leading toward a future dimly perceived.

Half-guilty As Charged

Yesterday's post used "disruptive" and "disruption" to describe the impact of 3D printing, and I apologize for using a term that is now an overused cliché:

[Disruption has] become an all-purpose technology industry buzzword, drained of meaning. A “synergy” for our time.

The complaining writer defines the proper use of the term, at least from his point of view [bold added]:

What makes disruptive innovations so deadly is they’re not better than your product. They’re worse. Anyone who needed a mainframe at the dawn of the personal computer era would find a PC to be an incredibly lame and underpowered alternative. So you ignore the alternative in favor of meeting the needs of your customers and perfecting your product. But the disruptive product keeps iterating and improving and selling to people who didn’t need mainframe computers but who do have use for a cheap, flexible PC. Soon enough, the PC market has swamped the mainframe market and your firm is on its last legs. You’ve fallen victim to the innovator’s dilemma: Your own success in the mainframe market blinded you to the real trajectory in the industry.

Well, at least I used the term properly. The output of 3D printing is far below the detail and quality of a machine shop, but the speed and low cost make the tradeoff compelling to many would-be Edisons. In fields as diverse as photography, music, fashion, and education traditional methods may still be best at the very top, but for the vast majority of uses digitization indeed proved to be disruptive.

Speaking of disruption and the old ways, Happy May Day, everyone. © 2013 Stephen Yuen

The Bleeding Edge

We've been watching, not participating in, one of the technologies that's on the verge of exploding into public consciousness. 3-D printers priced in the range of $2,000-$3,000 have hit the market. These devices enable individuals to create products cheaply and quickly without sending the design to a fabrication facility. One example:

Many custom dental fittings are now 3-D printed—like the series of mouth guards, each slightly different from the last, that are used to change tooth alignment over months. After a dental technician scans the current position of the teeth, all positions intermediate to the desired end point are modeled by software and then printed out in plastic. Also, if you’re lucky enough to have a dentist who can replace a crown in a single sitting, it’s because models are 3-D printed and then the replacement teeth are milled right there in the office.

(SJMN graphic)

Another example, but potentially much more disruptive [bold added]:

Cody Wilson, a 25-year-old University of Texas law student, has made it a personal crusade to use the technology for firearms. He aims to produce and publish online a completely printable plastic gun and then adapt the design for use on printers that are getting smaller and less expensive all the time.

Current gun laws ("the federal Gun Control Act of 1968 says you don't need a license to make a firearm for personal use") are completely inadequate to address a world of downloadable firearms. Imagine also a world of downloadable and customizable food, clothes, and household products, in other words a version-1 Star Trek replicator in every home. The disruption continues. © 2013 Stephen Yuen