Lake Manly

Death Valley, the hottest and driest place in North America, has a lake. [bold added]

recent rains have submerged the salt flats of Badwater Basin in a foot of water — a temporary lake large enough for park visitors to even go out in kayaks...

While water that falls typically evaporates, Death Valley received a surplus of rain over the past six months — two and half times what it normally tallies in an entire year, [park ranger] Abby Wines said.

The park had its rainiest day on record on Aug. 20, when remnants of Hurricane Hilary dropped 2.2 inches of rain. That brought the reemergence of an ancient lake, dubbed Lake Manly in honor of pioneer William Manly.

By the end of January, the lake had shrunk to half its size from when it formed in August. But an atmospheric-river-fueled storm in early February replenished it to its current dimensions: about 6-miles long, 3-miles wide and 1-foot deep.

Without more rainfall, Lake Manly will not be able to accommodate kayaking and paddle boarding in two weeks and will likely be gone by summer. However, to those of us who have had to listen to the incessant drumbeat of desertification doomsaying by climate alarmists, its unexpected reappearance was pleasure indeed.

Healthy Slough

The winter rains have revived the Belmont Slough, which marks the border between Foster City and Redwood Shores. We've had clear weather since May 1st (left).

Although the water level had fallen slightly when I took the picture (right) earlier today, the supply of brackish water will be ample this summer, the Slough will be healthy, and we'll likely get even more waterfowl.

Wikipedia: "In the early 1900s the slough was considered the best place to hunt ducks in San Mateo County, with the birds so plentiful, hunters could sneak up on them." Duck-hunting won't return any time soon, but sentiments can change.

Two Floods Coming

We've been given ample time to prepare for two floods, but readiness is questionable.

El Niño is coming

The chances of any El Niño forming are now 82% by July and 94% by November, according to the NOAA report.

More significant for California, there’s a 46% chance of a strong El Niño by November, increasing to 54% by January, NOAA researchers concluded Thursday...

Since 1951, there have been 26 El Niño events. Of those, 11 have been weak, 7 moderate, 5 strong and 3 very strong. Overall, rainfall in Southern California averaged 126% of normal. In the Bay Area it was 109% of normal.

But two of the three very strong El Niños, during the winters of 1982-83 and 1997-98, were associated with seasons that were among the wettest in recorded California history, with massive Sierra Nevada snow packs and major flooding.

More Migrants are Coming

A pandemic-era public health policy known as Title 42, used to turn away asylum seekers at the U.S. southern border, is coming to an end just before 9 p.m. tonight, prompting concerns about unprecedented migration flows.

Meanwhile, hundreds of migrants have been waiting outside between border walls in San Ysidro for days, sometimes with nothing more to eat all day than a single granola bar handed out by Border Patrol officers.

Federal, state and local officials have had more than two years to prepare for this moment. But officials running migrant shelters on both sides of the border say they have very little information about how to handle the anticipated increase in asylum seekers trying to cross from Mexico into California and other states.

Update: Border appears calm after lifting of pandemic restrictions

The border between the U.S. and Mexico was relatively calm Friday, offering few signs of the chaos that had been feared following a rush by worried migrants to enter the U.S. before the end of pandemic-related immigration restrictions...

“We did not see any substantial increase in immigration this morning,” said Blas Nunez-Neto of the Department of Homeland Security. He said the agency did not have specific numbers because it was early in the day.

By the way, I hope this guy makes it:

“I hope it’s a little better and that the appointments are streamlined a little more,” said Yeremy Depablos, 21, a Venezuelan traveling with seven cousins who has been waiting in the city for a month.

Fearing deportation, Depablos did not want to cross illegally. “We have to do it the legal way.”

Snowpack Feast or Famine

The satellite images show what a difference a year makes. In 2022 (left) the snowpack was under 60% of average for the third straight winter. On May 1, 2023 (right) it was 254% of average.

Twelve months ago, California was entering year three of an extended drought. On the heels of the driest January-April period in 128 years, the state’s two largest reservoirs were down to critically low levels, and a skimpy snowpack meant little additional water was on the way...

This year has been a complete turnaround.

Storms drenched California for months and piled on epic amounts of snow in the Sierra Nevada. The state’s May 1 snowpack clocked in at 254% of average for the date.

California regularly sees variability in Sierra snow from season to season, or a “snowpack whiplash.”

Dry winters have been the norm over the last two decades, but snowpacks above 150% have appeared four times, including this year (graph).

There appears to be little that California can do to reduce the variability of winter storms, but it's obvious that investing in water storage, including underground aquifers, can mitigate the worst effects of drought years. $7.5 billion was approved by the voters in 2014, but nothing has been built, truly an outstanding example of incompetence and unseriousness.

Tunnel Vision

The Golden Gate Bridge and San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge are Northern California's most famous monuments to America's golden century of engineering (bookended roughly from the Civil War to the Apollo missions).

For my money, however, the most important is the Hetch Hetchy system, which furnishes water to the Bay Area. [bold added]

The regional water system provides water to 2.4 million people in San Francisco, Santa Clara, Alameda and San Mateo counties. Eighty-five percent of the water comes from Sierra Nevada snowmelt stored in the Hetch Hetchy reservoir situated on the Tuolumne River in Yosemite National Park. Hetch Hetchy water travels 160 miles via gravity from Yosemite to the San Francisco Bay Area.

The system uses gravity until the water reaches its destinations, where pumping stations are required. With its three hydroelectric power plants Hetch Hetchy produces electricity sufficient to power 300,000 households per year.

Groveland access point to Mountain Tunnel (Chron)

Essential to the entire system is the 19-mile Mountain Tunnel, which is undergoing repairs:

Today, the 19-mile-long Mountain Tunnel is critical to San Francisco: It is the only pathway for Hetch Hetchy Reservoir water to travel from one of the powerhouses that generate hydroelectricity to another reservoir downstream.

For two consecutive winters, Mountain Tunnel has been under renovation after it was first red-flagged for major repairs 30 years ago. SFPUC has completed about 40% of the total construction and plans to close the tunnel for five more winters, ending in 2027...

Through pipes above and below ground, water from Hetch Hetchy Reservoir flows 150 miles through a series of tunnels, powerhouses and reservoirs before reaching the Bay Area’s local water system 32 hours later. Taking advantage of grade changes from the Sierra Nevada to the Bay Area, the original engineers were able to construct a probable pathway for water to travel entirely via one of the most climate-friendly sources of power available: gravity.

I am glad that we still have enough engineering knowhow to repair the Mountain Tunnel at a cost of $238 million instead of replacing it for $500 million to $1 billion.

Also, the SFPUC is betting that local reservoirs will be sufficient to satisfy the lower seasonal demand when the Tunnel is closed for repairs for the next four winters.

So pray for rain.