Using the power of the internet to round up a huge sample, the two researchers examined 565,915 bets made by 776 people on sports such as horse-racing and football. [snip]The explanation:
The probability of a first bet winning was 48% and that of a follow-up winning again was 49%. After that, the streak took off. The third bet won 57% of the time. The fourth, if the third had won, won 67% of the time, the fifth, 72% of it and the sixth 75%.
as winners’ winning streaks increased in length they started choosing safer and safer odds, which led them to win more often, though less profitably.This explains why your humble observer rarely goes home a winner--after a few wins he increases his bets, hoping to end with a big score. When you think you're playing with the house's money, you wind up losing it.
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| A lucky guy: Joe DiMaggio hit for 56 games in a row--a streak that has never been broken. He also married Marilyn Monroe (SI photo) |
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