Moving to Assisted Living

The dining room

Today was frenetic. The movers took the large pieces--recliners, desks, and beds--while we took the smaller items sorted into 20 containers. There are a host of to-do's that will have to be handled later, particularly the unpacking and installation of TV, phone, and computer.

At the top of the list were the sleeping arrangements and the bathroom. If those are comfortable, then we can be confident everything will work out. It took two days, but we got it right eventually.

Mass at Home

Preparing for communion.

The ministers from the church paid a visit to my parents this week. The ladies didn't wear their collars, but a lifetime of spirituality makes the raiments unnecessary; churchgoers know they have it, just as informed listeners know that a musician is talented after a few measures.

Mom and Dad are going through the changes that are inevitable with aging. Soon they will move from a home they have lived in for over half a century to a place that will provide the help they need.

One of the oldest traditions of Christianity is pastoral care, part of which is bringing communion to the home. Much as it has changed over the millennia, I like to think that Peter and Paul still see something recognizable in the church they founded.

Fancy Designs

Beans are roasted in the facility and shipped to other locations in Hawaii.

Honolulu Coffee Company is the latest resident of the site formerly occupied by Coco's, the 1960's 24-hour coffee shop at the corner of Kapiolani and Kalakaua.

Their fare is pricier than Starbucks or Peet's, but if you are a 93-year-old customer, why count a few pennies?

Besides, Starbucks or Peet's don't bother sculpting the foam into fancy designs.

Jordan and Camille

I missed this conversation the first time around.

Two public intellectuals, Jordan Peterson and Camille Paglia, engage in a wide-ranging discussion about postmodernism, history, culture, radical feminism, and the academy. They level broadsides against the ideology that has dominated American campuses since the late 20th century, and, yes, the conversation is more interesting than I've made it sound.

The Wallet is Still Closed

2005:  the way it used to be

The International Market Place used to have a bazaar-like feel, with open-air stalls containing clothes, knickknacks, jewelry, leather goods and art all crowded together.

It was one of the more colorful stops in Waikiki. If one had cash and was willing to haggle, it was possible to acquire an item at a lower price than on Kalakaua Avenue.

2018:  trying to keep the feel at much higher prices.

In the new International Market Place there's no bargaining. High-end stores abound, and it's a safe environment to have a drink and gawk at the other tourists.

Tonight I had a good time wandering about the three levels, the Apple Store across the street, and the Tesla dealership next door.

One thing hasn't changed, though; I kept my wallet closed.

If a Road Opens in the Forest, but Google Says It's Closed...

Mariposa roads are now open on Google Maps

The economy of Mariposa (pop. 2000) depends on tourists stopping by on the way to Yosemite National Park. After fires and floods closed not only Mariposa but also Yosemite, just as tourist dollars have started flowing again, yet another problem has surfaced:

Google Maps. The popular navigation app is regularly showing that roads to and from Mariposa are closed, when really they’re not, making it appear as though the region is still gripped by disaster.

At least four such errors have occurred in the past two months, according to numerous reports from residents. Efforts by retailers, county leaders and even the National Park Service to prevent the misinformation have been unsuccessful, meaning only more lulls in tourist traffic — and an emerging sense in the community that a small town is of little concern to big tech

. Sad observation from a Mariposa businessman:

“It’s not like people say they don’t believe you when you tell them the road is open,” Shaw said, recalling countless back-and-forth with potential guests. “But they’re essentially saying Google is more believable than you are.”

Was She Lying?

In the birthplace of free speech and the land of no-question-is-too-dumb, it's the one question that will get you fired, kicked out of school, and ostracized from social groups: Was She Lying?

Someone here is lying.

In Washington, to the contrary, senators managed to spend three weeks on Ford’s and Kavanaugh’s diametrically opposed, impossible-to-reconcile versions of events without confronting this critical, seemingly unavoidable fact. Instead, after watching, first, Ford’s trembling rendition of an atrocious attack and, then, Kavanaugh’s forceful denial, the Senate decided not to decide who was telling the truth.

It is a psychobabble default: We are to believe that Professor Ford is completely earnest, that she was undeniably subjected to a harrowing sexual assault, but that she has somehow misidentified her assailant — notwithstanding that she says she knew who Kavanaugh was before the attack and is “100 percent” certain he is the culprit.

Cowed by the “survivors must be believed” hooey — as if there were a link between X chromosomes and truth-telling — Republicans blithely went along, as if this preposterous mistaken-identity scenario were incontestable. Loud, aggressive hard-left activists had them afraid to confront Ford’s story … so they didn’t — and now they wonder why the media and Kavanaugh’s other critics keep pronouncing that the unconvincing, uncorroborated allegations against him are “credible.”

On the other hand, Kavanaugh is very persuasive in his indignant denials, and there is — if we may again mention this inconvenient fact — no support for Ford’s account, just her say-so. Just as no one in the Senate dared suggest that Ford might be lying, no one wanted to call Kavanaugh a liar to his face, either. As a result, we got more psychobabble: Kavanaugh occasionally drank beer to excess as a teenager, so maybe he tried to rape Ford in a drunken stupor (in front of a close friend of his) and, since no one mentioned it to him for 36 years, he can’t remember doing it.

Right.

It’s absurd. What happened here is simple. Either Ford is lying about being assaulted by Kavanaugh, or Kavanaugh is lying in denying it.

Asking the question is like questioning the existence of God a hundred years ago. Kids, stay away from this person.

Columbian Exchange

(Image by Sutori)

The Columbian Exchange is a term coined in 1972:

Christopher Columbus introduced horses, sugar plants, and disease to the New World, while facilitating the introduction of New World commodities like sugar, tobacco, chocolate, and potatoes to the Old World.

The process by which commodities, people, and diseases crossed the Atlantic is known as the Columbian Exchange.

One of the most impactful transplants was "Isabella's Pigs" (Kenneth C. Davis. America's Hidden History):

Isabella is credited as the one who encouraged Columbus to take some pigs aboard ship, along with dogs and horses.

Once introduced to the New World, Isabella’s pigs became one of the staples of Spanish armies and colonists. Able to forage for themselves and remarkably fertile, the pigs provided a valuable source of easily transported and self-perpetuating protein. For the conquistador on the move, the pigs offered many advantages, according to historian Charles Hudson: “Pigs are the most efficient food producers that can be herded…. A pig’s carcass yields 65 percent to 80 percent dressed meat…. A four-ounce serving of pork yields 402 calories…. Pigs are unusually fecund. A female as young as nine months may become pregnant, and she can give birth to as many as twelve in a litter…. Thus a herd of pigs can increase prodigiously within a few years.”

Along with the side benefit of producing fertilizer in the form of manure, these pigs offered one other very estimable advantage to Spanish Christians, as Hudson points out. “They ate pork not only for sustenance but also to remove any suspicion that they were Jews.”

Perhaps the greatest unintended consequence of this mobile mess hall may have been the waves of disease that are credited with wiping out so much of the native American populace the Spanish encountered.....Charles C. Mann fingers the pigs, the “ambulatory meat locker,” as the possible culprit behind the deadly epidemics that swept the New World’s original inhabitants. “Swine, mainstays of European agriculture, transmit anthrax, brucellosis, leptospirosis, trichinosis, and tuberculosis. Pigs breed exuberantly and can pass disease to deer and turkeys, which then can infect people…. Only a few…pigs would have to wander off to contaminate the forest.

In honor of Columbus Day I had some bacon this morning.

Blessing of the Animals, 2018

The chairs, table, and sign were set up promptly at the announced start time of 12:30 PM, but there was nary a soul--no animals, no owners, and no priests. Not to worry, both persons of cloth drove up a few minutes later, and groups leaving the Dog Park saw the little gathering and walked over for a blessing.

Today we celebrated the annual Feast of Saint Francis (officially October 4th on the Church calendar) by blessing pets and their owners. One lady said that her dog was an atheist, but I said that if St. Francis didn't ask or care, why should I?

Special prayers of healing were administered to those afflicted with ailments. Whether the sufferers were two- or four-legged the priests didn't discriminate.

Festivities begin at the morning service.

One owner--not a member of the church--said she looks forward to our annual event and has been stopping by for five years.

The lady who had her Camaro blessed in 2014 also came by, this time for a conventional prayer for her dogs.

One regular asked the whereabouts of the Project Bay Cat representatives, whom we normally ask to join us. I explained that the spaying, neutering, and feeding of the feral cats in Foster City have been so successful that the cats no longer pose a danger to waterfowl. Project Bay Cat has been disbanded. That's happy news, I suppose, but I did enjoy talking to the PBC volunteers.

By two o'clock we were done. If the prayers work* as hoped, we'll see everyone back at the same time next year.

*Hey, I'm no theologian.

Difference of Opinion

I say it's more proof we're descended from fish.

Arguing on Twitter. pic.twitter.com/lItC9NEGVN

— Paul Bronks (@BoringEnormous) October 3, 2018

50 Years Old and Still the Greatest

Amidst all the 50th-anniversary celebrations (and mournful remembrances) is the release of Bullitt, whose car chase scene has been hailed as the "greatest":

it’s the nine minutes and 42 seconds in “Bullitt” that changed the landscape....The duel between Bullitt’s Ford Mustang and the 1968 Dodge Charger R/T driven by the villains, in which the hunted (Bullitt) becomes the hunter, took three weeks to film. An Aeroflex 2C, a portable movie camera that had been used by the military during World War II, was mounted by suction cups across the back seat to give moviegoers the driver’s perspective.

The car chase is all real, i.e., it was filmed before computer generated imagery (CGI) had been invented. The entire movie, except for two seconds added post-production, was filmed in San Francisco.

When [Director Peter] Yates and [film editor Frank] Keller were editing the film, they felt something was missing in the chase. Finally, they came up with an answer: Just as the chase revs into high gear, one of the villains fastens his seat belt. Yates and [cinematographer William] Fraker filmed it in a studio in Los Angeles. It lasts all of two seconds.

“There’s a ‘click,’ and then you know something big is about to happen...Then you know you’re in for a ride.”

I liked the chase scene when I saw it in the 1970's and '80's, but I enjoy it even more now that I know San Francisco well and get a chuckle out of watching the cars instantaneously appear in different locations around town. And what's with the all the green Volkswagens?

Peak Real Estate?

San Francisco Real Estate Item 1:
Booming SF hits new high for office rent, beating dot-com record

Rents for new offices in the city’s central business district reached $81.25 per square foot in the third quarter, according to brokerage Cushman & Wakefield. The previous record of $80.16 per square foot was recorded in the fourth quarter of 2000, as the previous tech boom was ending.

After the 2000 dot-com crash resulted in unplanned vacancies, and with a raft of new construction coming online, prime ("Class A") SF office space in 2001 could be had for about half today's rate.

San Francisco Real Estate Item 2:
New report finds overlooked earthquake vulnerabilities in some SF high-rises

Between 50 and 65 San Francisco high-rises used specific types of steel welds that were later found to fracture during the 1994 Northridge earthquake in Los Angeles.

I'm always in favor of more knowledge, but in this case I'm grateful that I didn't know that for 20 years I was working in a highrise that was in any danger--it survived the 1989 Loma Prieta quake just fine.

With office rents at all-time highs, with pending fixes that are going to cost beaucoup bucks, and with the Bay Area experiencing a mass exodus, it sure feels like we've reached peak real estate in this cycle.

I Would Buy That Book

(Image from the Weekly Standard)

Your humble blogger has so far resisted commenting on Brett Kavanaugh because:
1) much more has been said--and better--than I ever could;
2) there's much we don't know, and new information could instantly upset any carefully thought-out narrative;
3) expressing an opinion can be dangerous to social relationships that are much more important to me than the success or failure of this nomination, or, for that matter, what happens in the mid-term elections.

One of the best pieces I've read has more to do with the listening audience than with Brett Kavanaugh or Christine Blasey Ford. It concerns our motivated reasoning.

Let's assume that, before Dr. Ford's allegations became known, you supported Brett Kavanaugh as a Supreme Court Justice.That should not have meant that you necessarily believed that he was innocent of her charges. Similarly, you could have been opposed to Judge Kavanaugh without believing he was a sex abuser. Yet...[bold added]

One of the most striking aspects of the debate over the sexual assault accusations against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh is the extremely high correlation between what people think of the allegations and whether they believe Kavanaugh should be confirmed aside from them. Conservatives Republicans who like Kavanaugh's jurisprudence tend to dismiss the accusations. Liberal Democrats who oppose Kavanaugh on jurisprudential grounds tend to think the accusations are true (or at least highly likely to be so). A similar pattern emerges when it comes to the issue of burden of proof, with conservatives often claiming that it rests on the accuser and that Kavanaugh is "innocent until proven guilty," like a defendant in a criminal trial. Liberals, by contrast, tend to argue that the situation should be treated as more a "job interview" than a legal process, and it is up to Kavanaugh to prove that he is fit to be a Supreme Court justice. Some even contend that we should presumptively believe the accusers.

I tried to keep an open mind during the hearings last Thursday. This meant suppressing defensive thoughts when a witness or questioner challenged what I wanted to believe. It meant empathizing with each witness, trying to imagine myself in his or her shoes and assuming what he or she said was true.

Even after it was over, I didn't see how anyone could say that they were "100% sure" that one of them was lying. There are possible scenarios where both could be telling the truth as they knew it, for example, where he was so drunk he failed to remember the incident or she had a false memory by assigning a face and name to a shadowy figure in a long-ago traumatic event.

Whatever happens to this nomination I hope a major media organization will continue to look at what may have happened 36 years ago. If that investigation is done in good faith, that is, by not trying to drive to a conclusion, I would buy that book.

So Bad in Their Execution

Ribbon cutters included SF supervisor Jane Kim, Nancy
Pelosi, and Mayor London Breed (3rd from right).

Success has a thousand fathers and mothers. August 10:
Thousands jam new Transbay Transit Center for its open house

Thousands of visitors jammed the new Transbay Transit Center for its grand opening party Saturday...Lines stretched the length of the Grand Hall as people tried to get into the $2.2 billion multistory transportation hub.

But that was then.

This is now. September 28:
Salesforce Transit Center to remain closed after crack in second beam discovered

The $2.2 billion Salesforce Transit Center is expected to remain closed at least through the end of next week after inspectors found a second cracked steel beam beneath the center’s rooftop park, officials said Wednesday.

Flashback to 2015, after spending $6 billion:
Plague of problems puts Bay Bridge seismic safety in question

Flashback to 2009: SF Officials Knew About Sinking Millennium Tower

For a City that likes to lecture the rest of us against pushing Nature too far, it's astonishing that it: 1) proceeds with multi-billion-dollar construction projects on top of landfill next to major earthquake faults, and 2) is so bad in their execution.

Not All of Them

A few years ago I had a short-term need for $90,000 (don't we all?). There were drawbacks to raising the money through stock sales or IRA withdrawals; the $90,000 would be replenished in three months, and these methods would result in income taxes--about $20,000--that did not have to be incurred. So I decided to borrow using margin from Charles Schwab.

Under a margin loan account holders can borrow up to 50% of the value of their stocks. It's risky to borrow the full 50%, because the borrower would be subject to a maintenance call if stocks go down, as they sometimes do 😀. (The broker would sell enough stock to pay down the margin loan so that the ratio was back to 50%). In my case $90,000 was safely under 50% of the stock value, so a margin/maintenance call was not a worry.

These changes to 0.075%-1.825% don't look so bad

The borrowing rate that Schwab charged was about 7%, so when I got back the $90,000 in 2½ months I paid off the margin loan immediately. (Aside: margin loans are a form of secured borrowing--as are home mortgages--where the lender has the right to sell assets to recover its loan. IMHO, a secured loan backed by publicly traded stocks should bear a low interest rate because of the low risk to the lender, but that's just me.)

until you notice the Base Rate is 7.75%

Anyway, I've taken steps to ensure that I won't be using margin debt any time in the future.

A couple of months ago we noted how the interest that Schwab pays on its cash deposits was well under 1%. So you lend them cash at 0.2%; they lend it back to you for more than 7.75%.

I like the services and products we get from Schwab, but not all of them.