Water We Talking About

Tahoe: Filled in March with a huge snow-melt coming (David Braun photo)

For the past decade your humble blogger has listened to non-scientists claim with absolute certainty that the multi-year drought was caused by anthropogenic global warming, i.e., industrial civilization's excessive production of carbon dioxide. The State is running out of water, Lake Tahoe has dropped alarmingly, we have to change our evil ways, etc. etc.

How, then, to explain this good news? Tahoe [bold added]

is filling up fast, and about a foot away from reaching full capacity. Federal water managers say Tahoe will fill this summer for the first time in 11 years, and when it does, the total amount it will have risen across the water-year between Oct. 1 and Sept. 30 will be record-breaking.

"What we've come up so far and what we expect to come up will be the largest rise at the lake in 117 years of recorded history."

The winter snowfall seems to have discombobulated climate forecasters. This poor non-scientist is struggling to understand:
1) where did the climate models go wrong and how are they being changed to improve predictions?
2) what is the global temperature increase for 2017 and 2018, given that greenhouse-gas production continues unabated? (Temperatures will be higher because CO2 will be higher, isn't that the premise?)
3) Is the drought going to resume next year, or will rainfall be normal or better?