Friday, July 01, 2016

The Most Important Issue

For what it's worth, Barron's predicts a Democratic Senate and a Republican House after the November elections. A split Congress will ensure that the new President, whoever it turns out to be, will have to compromise with the opposition.
There’s opportunity for either Clinton or Trump to find areas for compromise with Congress, including a tax holiday on the foreign profits of U.S. companies and a bump up in the “carried interest” rate that private-equity firms and hedge funds pay on their profits. And regardless of who is elected, it’s unlikely we will have higher individual tax rates. At the same time, the legislative gridlock that has characterized most of the Obama administration should loosen a bit with either candidate in the White House.
Barron's doesn't mention the ramifications of the election on the Supreme Court, which currently has an unfilled seat due to the death of Justice Scalia on February 13th. If both the Presidency and Senate are in Democratic hands, as Barron's predicts, the Supreme Court is very likely to take a leftward tilt (some will say more leftward) for many years.

Immigration, trade, guns, and terrorism may command the headlines, but the direction of the Supreme Court may be the important issue of the campaign.

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