A Predictive Model is Unnecessary

Last December we scrambled to serve 100 people at the community center.

Today only 20 people were waiting at the opening. However, the count eventually grew to 50 and banished any concerns we may have had about wasted food. Our guests went through the line for second and third helpings and accepted offers of leftovers to take home.

One woman explained that it wasn't an improving economy that diminished the number of diners. Tomorrow, September 1st, is Labor Day, which meant that September benefits were received on Friday. Last December's high demand occurred on Sunday the 29th; checks didn't come until the following Tuesday.

The development of a predictive model is unnecessary anyway. Knowing that every morsel will be consumed or taken home, we'll continue to prepare for 100. © 2014 Stephen Yuen

Don't Hurry Up, Wait

According to psychological research

the purchase of experiences appears to bring more happiness than the purchase of things.

"The anticipatory period tends to be more pleasant, more exciting, and less tinged with impatience for experiential purchases."

(Image from Schmoop.com)

Science confirms what the poet said 200 years ago about two lovers, frozen in time, who can never meet:

Bold Lover, never, never canst thou kiss,
Though winning near the goal—yet, do not grieve;
She cannot fade, though thou hast not thy bliss,
For ever wilt thou love, and she be fair!

From politics to sex to tech gadgets to books and movies, often it's not the experience itself but the anticipation that gives the most pleasure.

Presence of Mind

Severely depressed individuals often neglect themselves and those who are close to them. Though he was depressed enough to take his own life, Robin Williams had the presence of mind (and love for his children) to tend to his complicated finances before the final act:

Williams took steps to protect his children with the creation of trusts. Williams left behind three children, Zach, Cody and Zelda from two different marriages. The terms of the trusts, while private, have been reported in the press as paying out to his children in three lump sums. The trusts are structured so the children each received 1/3 of the value of his or her trust at 21, half of the remaining assets at 25 and the balance at age 30.

Trust funds are favored as an estate planning tool because they give you control over your assets, but unlike assets that pass through a last will, they are not subject to estate taxes.

In addition to creating trusts to secure his children’s financial futures, Williams also is known to have created a real estate trust, which he named the Domus Dulcis Domus Holding Trust (which translates to Home Sweet Home in Latin). Giving the trust a name with no link to him offered a layer of privacy protection. Both his home in Tiburon and his ranch were placed in the trust and will protect the family from estate taxes on the properties and provide them with important equity in the properties. If these properties were not held in trust, a large portion of the value could be due as estate tax, drastically reducing the family’s holdings.

Most celebrities' reputations diminish substantially after they die, but I suspect Robin Williams' star will shine brightly for a long time.

Petit Sets the Record

The Giants celebrate after a 4-1 victory over the Rockies.

We attend a few games at AT&T Park every year. Normally we sit in the cheap seats (<$30) with a group, eat, drink, cheer, and have a rollicking time. Today three of us splurged on tickets in the Field Club section ($100-$140). Not only is the perspective of the game different, so is the fans' treatment. Waiters take custom orders, and security guards keep a close eye on who enters and exits.

The game was marked by Giants pitcher Yusmeiro Petit setting the major league record for consecutive batters retired:

In the third inning of a 4-1 Giants victory, the 29-year-old right-hander with a fastball that rarely touches 90 mph set the record by retiring his 46th straight hitter, with a strikeout of former San Francisco farmhand Charlie Culberson.

Along the way, Petit broke the National League record of 41 that had stood since Jim Barr of the Giants established it in 1972.

Two pitches after Petit broke Mark Buehrle's big-league mark of 45, the streak was over. Rockies pitcher Jordan Lyles rapped a double to left, then scored on a Charlie Blackmon single, the only run against the Giants in their third straight victory.

We stayed well past the final out to enjoy the view. Everyone enjoyed the experience, and not just because the Giants won.

I fantasized for a few seconds about buying season tickets, but, after observing season-ticket holders leave in the eighth inning, realized that it's hard to maintain the euphoria over 81 home games (the economists call it diminishing marginal utility). But same time, same place, next year? Count me in. © 2014 Stephen Yuen

Confession of a Law-Breaker

An oil seal keeps sewer gas down

We are seeing (and peeing into--is that TMI?) more waterless urinals in restaurant and retail store bathrooms.

In my humble opinion the technology is far from perfect. Without regular flushing the equipment becomes pretty rank, especially if the air conditioning is sputtering. To be sure, the drought is forcing all of us to take actions (letting plants die, showering every other day, etc.) that we wouldn't otherwise contemplate.

Another thought: consider amending the laws against public urination, which is a crime in every state. It's not much of a nuisance if a person does his business in flora that is at a distance sufficient to conceal him from foot traffic. (Confession: I've broken the law three times in the past year, but hey, I'm saving water for the environment.) © 2014 Stephen Yuen

Foolhardiness Defeated, Applause is in Order

Before Hetch Hetchy valley was dammed. (Sierra Club photo)

Entranced by visions of a vanished valley of Eden, environmentalists put forward a 2012 San Francisco ballot initiative to drain the Hetch Hetchy reservoir.

It failed in a landslide, 77-23 percent.

Two years ago California's water shortage was already apparent. If the measure had passed, today's drought emergency would have made the destruction of the O'Shaughnessy Dam one of the most foolhardy acts in California's history (it supplies water to over two million people).

To prevent another chance of a single election in a single city from having such a catastrophic effect on the lives of a much larger population, the San Francisco PUC declared that the greater Bay Area has a say in the matter. Per the Mercury News:

the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission has approved a plan to block the draining of the famed reservoir unless the 26 cities and water districts in San Mateo, Santa Clara and Alameda counties that receive Hetch Hetchy water give their approval.

It's rare for the general welfare to prevail over powerful special interests, and rarer still for public agencies to cede power willingly to ensure that such interests remain stymied. Applause is in order. © 2014 Stephen Yuen

Worse Fates

Aging introduces men to the dismal cycle [bold added]:

A man in his 50s or 60s or 70s finds himself feeling sluggish and low. He’s eating or drinking too much, and his body doesn’t burn calories as fast as it used to. Next thing he knows, he’s overweight. The combination of mood and weight makes it difficult to stir up the energy for exercise, while lack of exercise only worsens his other problems. This dismal cycle wreaks havoc on his libido too.

Testosterone therapy is the latest cure for what ails us (yes, time has not bypassed your humble observer either):

T levels drop gradually as men get older. Isn’t it obvious that more T would mean less decline? This train of logic brings us to the frenzy of today: Men of the baby boom, top up your T levels and rock on! And give a nod to the ghost of Ponce de León as you reinhabit the hard and lusty body of your former self. Dude, I’ve got your fountain of youth right here.

Heart attack, stroke, and cancer are a few of the possible side effects of added testosterone, but many men accept those risks because they are unwilling to accept the poet's declaration:

For having lost but once your prime, You may forever tarry.

Caution: Men, as your flailings against Father Time become more desperate, don't become an object of pity. You'll find that there are worse fates than getting old.

Blissfully Unaware

At 3:20 a.m. the other three members of the household woke to the shaking. One began perusing information on the USGS website, another checked on the animals, and the third walked around the house, looking for items that had fallen. As for me, I slept the sleep of the blissfully unaware.

My lack of response to the Napa 6.0 earthquake perturbed the lady of the household: "Is this how you're going to react to a real emergency?" Her assessment of the quake is correct, by the way, the damage suffered by the wine industry is a real emergency.

I'm doing pretty well in abiding by one of my New Year's health resolutions to get enough sleep, but perhaps I'm overdoing it. It's not a real resolution if one enjoys it too much, n'est-ce pas?

The pct. of Jawbone UP wearers who woke up was proportional to distance from the epicenter. Like
others who live 70 miles from Napa, your humble observer is part of the majority who didn't wake up.

The Science is Unsettled

Possible answer to "one of the biggest questions in climate science" [bold added]:

why, since the turn of the century, average surface-air temperatures on Earth have not risen, even though the concentration in the atmosphere of heat-trapping carbon dioxide has continued to go up.

Drs. Chen Xianyao of the Ocean University of China, Qingdao, and Ka-Kit Tung of the University of Washington, Seattle, have uncovered evidence that an immense amount of heat is being stored in the Atlantic and Southern (aka Antarctic) Oceans, dampening atmospheric temperature increases over the past decade.

Subsurface temperatures are increasing faster than the temperature on the surface or in the atmosphere. Their study raises some important questions, such as:

How does this mechanism work?

Why doesn't the differential manifest in the larger Pacific and Indian Oceans?

When will the process reverse (Economist: "when it does, global warming will resume.")?

This amateur's opinion: the results from the global warming models aren't necessarily wrong, but they do not reliably incorporate important inputs that affect the Earth's temperatures, such as ocean-heat transfer mechanisms and sunspot activity.

Waiting for more information is often a delaying tactic, but leaping to action before obtaining and evaluating important information can have hazardous consequences, too.

Atlantic vs Pacific ocean surface/sub-surface temperature differentials. (Economist graphic)

© 2014 Stephen Yuen

Maru Ichi, Mountain View

Kuro ramen broth is black from roasted garlic.
Toppings: roast pork, egg, sprouts, stewed pork and cod roe

When in Mountain View and craving a bowl of ramen, we head to Maru Ichi on Castro. The noodles are fresh and the broth, especially kuro (roasted garlic) style, is tasty without needing the enhancement of MSG. The varied toppings are also a treat---it would require hours to assemble them at home.

The restaurant's policies of no reservations and cash-only do not deter the crowds; during peak periods the wait is at least 30 minutes. If the line gets too long, we sometimes abandon Maru Ichi for other excellent restaurants on Castro Street. But usually we wait it out; when you get a taste for something you just have to have it.

Out with the Clutter, Out with the Stress

Advice from professional "de-cluttering" consultant Barbara Reich [bold added]:

"It takes 20 to 30 hours to organize a house. If you think you're going to spend five minutes here and there, it will be undone in a minute." Instead, put a few hours on your calendar, she says, and honor the commitment the way you would a doctor's appointment. Then, play some music, enlist a friend to help, pour some wine — whatever works so you get cracking. Sort things into three piles — keep, toss and donate — and tackle what makes you most bonkers first. "After that," Reich says, "your anxiety level will drop exponentially and it's amazing how motivated you are to keep going."

She maintains that the things you own should be beautiful, useful or well loved. Reich has clients ask themselves these questions: Have I used or worn it in the past year? If the answer is no, out it goes. Is it justifying the space it's taking up in my house? No? Goodbye.

Reich grabs a stack of files and scribbles categories on the labels: medical, insurance, tax receipts. People like to make a separate file for every single thing, she says, but documents are more likely to get filed if you're not hunting for micro-categories, so the "car" file can include insurance, maintenance and expense records.

Next, Reich zeroes in on a horror she finds in almost every home: a plastic bin crammed with wires. No one ever knows what the electric cords and chargers in this box are for, she says, "but everybody is very afraid to throw it away." Get over that fear, Reich advises: "If you really need to buy another cord, you can go to Radio Shack. Cords are replaceable, but not your grandmother's vintage beaded purse.

The August/September 2014 issue of AARP, the Magazine, has other useful tips and tricks.

You'd better hold on to that box of electrical parts and wires, though; Radio Shack may not be around when you need it.

Network Analysis: Trade Alliances are More Stable

Network analysis supports what many political scientists have long suspected: international trade alliances are more effective than military ones at keeping the peace. Per Stanford economist Matthew O. Jackson:

"Once you bring in trade, you see network structures densify," he says. Nations form a web of trading alliances, which creates financial incentive not only to keep peace with trading partners but also to protect them from being attacked so as not to disrupt trade. "In the context of the alliances we have analyzed, trade motives are essential to avoiding wars and sustaining stable networks."

Protectionism has its appeal (save domestic jobs, keep substandard products off the market, reduce dependence on foreign suppliers, etc.), but not only does free trade produce economic benefits that outweigh the putative costs, it also is a strong preventative to war.

Disaster Preparedness

Firefighters demonstrate the danger of fallen power lines. 

We spent a couple of hours at the park on Sunday to attend the disaster preparedness fair. Checklists can be found on the City website, but there's no substitute for actually meeting the emergency personnel and getting a sense of their competence.

We talked to the geologist about earthquake science, were reminded to stock supplies for our pets, and got a coupon from Orchard Supply for the latest equipment (TV velcro straps, hand-cranked radios, water purifiers) to survive an earthquake and its aftermath.

The bad news: we were informed that the days were numbered for our landline and pulse-dial telephone ("it's our one phone that can operate if the power goes off say, during an earthquake"). Even if it were possible, I would never turn back the clock, but oftentimes progress makes us more vulnerable. © 2014 Stephen Yuen

Further Down the Line

A vehicle you don't want to see at your house

Early Sunday morning the kitchen sink was stuck. I ran the garbage disposal to no avail, then disassembled the U-trap and other pipes underneath. After scrubbing away 11 years of gunk---the sink was installed in 2003---I replaced the pipes and ran the water again.

Alas, the blockage persisted. The problem lay further down the line.

OK to try this at home....with a professional.

The Roto-rooter technician, Arnulfo, arrived in the early afternoon. He carefully laid out a rubber mat to minimize damage to the floor, then unreeled a mechanical drain cleaner that had a 90-foot cable; it also emitted a continuous stream of water to push the detritus into the sewer, which was an estimated 60 feet away.

I try to watch contractors not only to motivate them (that strategy seems to work, in addition to tipping, offering drinks, and buying lunch) but also to assess whether I would be able to handle the problem myself next time. It quickly became obvious: no, I can't. The $329 cost (no extra charge for nights or weekends) was higher than I expected; it was a bargain nonetheless.

Robin Williams, Episcopalian (!)

Robin Williams self-identified as one. Herewith his top 10 reasons to be an Episcopalian.

10.No snake handling.
9. You can believe in dinosaurs.
8. Male and female God created them; male and female we ordain them.
7. You don't have to check your brains at the door.
6. Pew aerobics.
5. Church year is color-coded.
4. Free wine on Sunday.
3. All of the pageantry - none of the guilt.
2. You don't have to know how to swim to get baptized.
And the Number One reason to be an Episcopalian:
1. No matter what you believe, there's bound to be at least one other Episcopalian who agrees with you.

Proving again that if it's funny it springs from truth.