Tampa: A Cloud in Florida's Horizon

(Image from Google Maps)

Tampa was one of the most popular relocation destinations in the country. However, repeated flood damage in the last five years has prompted a wave of selling as homeowners want to get out.

In the Tampa Bay metropolitan area, which includes St. Petersburg, a real-estate boom nearly doubled median home values from 2018 to June of this year, according to Redfin data. Young people flocked to the region, looking for a coastal lifestyle at a relatively affordable price.

The Tampa Bay metro area was the fifth most popular relocation destination in the country, according to an analysis by Redfin last year. The population has soared to more than three million.

Hurricane Helene deposited more than 6 feet of storm surge in the Shore
Acres neighborhood of St. Petersburg, Fla. (Photo: Mike Carlson/AP)

But as Shore Acres’s young residents sorted through the storm’s wreckage, only one thing was on their minds: selling.

Ballooning home insurance costs and the perennial threat of violent storms are starting to undermine housing markets throughout much of the state. But in few places has the turnaround been more dramatic than in low-lying communities up and down the coast of Florida that frequently flood.

The Tampa Bay housing market had been softening even before Helene struck. While prices have been flat, the area experienced a 58% increase in supply in August compared with a year ago, and a 10% decrease in demand, according to Parcl Labs, a real-estate data and analytics firm.

About half the homes listed for sale in Tampa experienced price reductions as of Sept. 9, the third highest share of all U.S. major metropolitan areas.

...The area’s affordability, once a large part of its appeal, is also waning as insurance premiums soar. Jacob McFadden was paying $880 a year to insure his home when he bought it in 2020. That amount has since almost quadrupled, to $3,300.

Premiums will likely increase again now. Property damage from last week’s Category 4 storm could be as high as $26 billion, according to estimates from Moody’s Analytics.

Florida is the No. 2 favored relocation destination for Californians.

So where did Californians move to in 2023?

Texas is the top destination for departing Californians, with 13.71% of California moving interest toward the Lone Star State.

Florida is #2 destination for Californians with 7.49% of interest. This confirms other reports that Californians are flocking to The Sunshine State.

Generally speaking, California homeowners who move to Florida have cashed out with substantial equity and should be able to invest in flood protection measures, such as raising their homes on columns, piles, and piers. They can also afford to pay for the higher insurance premiums. However, the exodus of lower-income, typically working-class homeowners from Tampa is a troubling sign that Florida may be peaking,