Sunday, November 10, 2024

The Episcopal Church: plus ça change

Bishop Austin Rios
It's no secret that the vast majority of Episcopalians, both clergy and laity, are politically liberal; in various gatherings around the Bay Area I have never met an Episcopalian who will admit to conservative or Republican leanings, although, to be fair, lay people rarely initiate political discussions.

Austin Rios, who was installed as our Bishop three months ago, has words of reconciliation (complete message after the break) after first stating his own disappointment in the election's outcome: [bold added]
As a long-term supporter of immigrant rights and the former director of an international refugee center, I do not believe mass deportations, promised by the Trump campaign, will make America greater or stronger.

As a former resident of small towns in Texas, Wisconsin, and North Carolina, I have seen how misinformation can easily manipulate the views and feelings in more insular communities.

And I’ve also seen how small communities can sometimes show-up for their neighbors who are in crisis more consistently than those who call big cities their homes.

There is no denying the cognitive dissonance that arises from many Americans preferring an older white male felon to a younger multiracial female prosecutor.
I was uncertain when Bishop Rios was elected, but now it's clear: the Diocese will be led by another social justice warrior for at least a decade. The giveaway is in the last sentence, where the Bishop assigns virtue or vice based on a candidate's sexual and racial identity. I'm disappointed, but as a believer in democracy, I accept the will of my fellow Episcopalians!

BTW, there's a decent chance that all his convictions will be overturned on appeal, and all charges will be dropped in other cases. Will President-elect Trump still be a "convicted felon"?



Saturday, November 09, 2024

Costco: the Good Times are Back

Next to the $14.99/lb ribeye were steaks going for $59.99. A second look revealed that the price was $59.99 per pound. It was wagyu beef, which we had seen in Japan decades ago for $100 per pound, so the Costco price was a relative bargain.

In past years we have gawked at the occasional Costco offerings of $550 hams and $2,150 cognac. Of course, we never pulled the trigger, nor did we do so on the wagyu steaks with the cheapest package going for $240.

Nevertheless, the marketing and buying geniuses at Costco would never have displayed the luxury ribeyes unless there was a good chance they would be bought. The good times are back.

Friday, November 08, 2024

The Executive Function Coach

(Illustration by Kilbride/WSJ)
Here's another child-raising specialty that didn't exist when our kids were growing up. Demand is exploding for the Executive Function coach.
Executive function skills fall under three big headings: working, or short-term, memory; inhibitory control, which involves putting urges and impulses on hold; and cognitive flexibility, the ability to plan, reason, solve problems and manage multiple tasks. In practical terms, EF might coaches show students how to break down assignments and projects into bite-sized pieces and estimate the time each will take; establish a daily schedule, with time for study, exercise, socializing and sleep; and develop a plan to avoid getting distracted by technology and social media.

Psychologists in schools and private practice report seeing a flood of requests from parents for executive function help for their kids, and experienced EF coaches are struggling to meet demand...

The rise in demand for student EF coaches coincides with a rise in ADHD diagnoses and mental health problems in young people. Technology is fragmenting kids’ attention, and student life has become far more demanding. Juggling school, sports, extracurriculars, volunteering and college admissions requires careful time management.

“The number of choices available to a young person has increased so substantially,” says Grant Leibersberger, founder and principal of Boston-based Focus Collegiate, which offers EF coaching to kids with learning differences who are going to traditional colleges. “Their brains aren’t wired for all these choices so early on.”
Your humble blogger has observed young adults who have not been able to deal with electronic distractions. We see them on the road every day and give them a wide berth.

Executive Function training isn't just for kids.

Thursday, November 07, 2024

Peggy Noonan's Take

(WSJ graphic)
Former Reagan and GHW Bush speechwriter Peggy Noonan could not bring herself to support Donald Trump. However, her personal feelings about the President-elect do not prevent her from performing an insightful analysis of Tuesday's results:
It was a triumph for the Republican Party—a sweep, a rout—and a disaster for the Democrats. Much has been written about the demographic facts but when a single candidate increases his totals in almost every group but one, white women, something big happened. Donald Trump will likely receive a majority of the popular vote—the first Republican to do so since 2004. Republicans handily won the Senate and appear poised to take the House. This amounts to a legitimately claimed mandate.

Mr. Trump’s is the biggest political comeback since Richard Nixon, whose career flat-lined in embarrassment in 1962, after a failed gubernatorial race and stumbling news conference—“You won’t have Nixon to kick around anymore”—only to roar back to the presidency in 1968. It isn’t enough said that Mr. Trump did this while enduring a shooting, a second, thwarted assassination attempt, and credible intelligence reports that Iran was trying to kill him. He went into all his rallies knowing that. He showed a lot of guts. Mass media didn’t dwell on this, but regular people did.

As for Kamala Harris, Mr. Trump in 2020 lost the Catholic vote. This year he carried it with a healthy 56%. That’ll teach her to blow off the Al Smith dinner.

What did it all mean? The people did what they wished. They revolted. They looked at the past four years of Washington and said no. They said “Goodbye to all that,” to the years 2020-24—to the pandemic, to the pain and damage of that era, which affected every part of our lives. That is the real turning of the page I think, from a time they hated that made them view their government as bullying and not that bright. In terms of issues it was illegal immigration, inflation and a rejection of the deterioration all around them—of drugstores locking up the shampoo and the beleaguered Walgreens employee late with the key to the cabinet and in a bad mood because he’s afraid of thieves and crazy people and it’s wearing him down. It was the woke regime, which people have come to experience as an invading force in their lives. It was Afghanistan, and other wars, and the sense Washington isn’t getting foreign policy right and perhaps barely thinking about it. They just seem to be staggering through each day. The country’s been waiting for years to hear from its leaders: What are America’s interests?

In September, pondering the race, I wrote: “This will be a path election, not a person election.” Once we chose a shining John F. Kennedy, who would choose the path. You chose dazzling Ronald Reagan, and he’d cut a path through the forest. This year I felt people would be choosing a path, not a person. “And I’m not sure they want to go down the Blue Path any deeper than they already have.”

I think that’s what happened. Tens of millions of people who didn’t like Donald Trump voted for the path he promised.

America, after its long journey through the 2010s and ’20s, is becoming more conservative again.
Lest her readers think she has changed her mind about the man, she adds:
As for me, I don’t like the SOB, I think him a bad man who’ll cause and bungle crises almost from day one, but he’ll be the American president, and we all deserve grace. I will pray for him, support what I think constructive and oppose what I think destructive, call it straight as I can and take whatever follows.
Such language, Peggy, what would the Gipper say?

Wednesday, November 06, 2024

Post-Election Rally

November 6, 2024: the "fifth-best one-day showing ever"
The stock market rocketed higher over Donald Trump's clear-cut victory last night. [bold added]
Wall Street has rarely been more excited by an election.

U.S. stocks’ capitalization rose by $1.62 trillion on Wednesday, their fifth-best one-day showing ever, following Donald Trump’s decisive election victory. The surge highlights the opportunity that investors, bankers and others in finance are hoping to embrace over four years of tax cuts, deregulation and economic expansion.
While all sectors benefited, investors were particularly enthusiastic about the possibility of a lenient antitrust regime and a less stringent regulatory environment:
Dealmakers expect mergers and acquisitions to come roaring back, with the installation of business-friendly regulators replacing those backed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.), a noted dealmaking foe. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were among the strongest performers on Wednesday; those firms are among the most deal-oriented....

Among the biggest beneficiaries of a Trump administration are U.S. banks, a group that has been under regulatory scrutiny that is likely to ease in the next four years.

Bank stocks surged Wednesday in a wager that a strong economy, increased dealmaking and lighter regulation will spur higher profits. Some of the firms that have been under the most pressure from their overseers during the Biden administration surged. Wells Fargo jumped 13% to a new high. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley both rose more than 10%.
IMHO, the stock market is moving too fast. Staffing key positions will not happen immediately, plus senior and mid-level positions are filled with bureaucrats who not only do not support but actively resist Mr. Trump's policies, as we saw during his first term. I won't be a buyer for at least several weeks.

Tuesday, November 05, 2024

Voting in Person on Tuesday

2020 election: plenty of space
Foster City tore down its Recreational Center in the month before today's election. The timing was unfortunate, in that the spacious Rec Center was Foster City's sole in-person voting location. (The City began planning the $66 million construction project in 2017.)

Signs directed us to a room in City Hall, next to the fire station. The room was packed with voting booths; about half were occupied.

A volunteer asked me to "register"--she quickly corrected the phrase to "check in"--and I filled out a form with my name, residential address, and date of birth.

Another lady checked the information against her computer (no identification was requested), and directed me to an empty station.

I made my selections on the touchscreen, printed out the ballot, and dropped it into the box. The whole process took half an hour.

To be perfectly honest, I wouldn't have minded taking another minute to show a picture ID, but California is unlikely to reinstate that requirement in my lifetime.

Monday, November 04, 2024

I'll Have Some News With Those Jokes

Tyrus gesticulates
On the eve of an election which is again the-most-important-election-in-my-lifetime I'm tuning out all the reporting on the polls. Predictions range from a late break toward Harris to a clear-cut Trump victory. The most common poll result seems to be a statistical tie.

This week I've been watching Gutfield, Fox's late-night humor show. Tonight there was this nugget.

George "Tyrus" Murdoch: You are from the mean streets of Northern California.

Greg Gutfield: San Mateo.

Tyrus: You didn't play.

Gutfield: I cut my teeth at the Hillsdale Mall.

Tonight I learned that Greg Gutfield, like Tom Brady, Kris Kristofferson, and Merv Griffin, is another San Mateo kid who moved away and hit it big.

It's a pleasant surprise when you go to be entertained and pick up some knowledge in the process.

Sunday, November 03, 2024

Happy Birthday, Again

On my birthday I knocked over the dietary guardrails and ate a week's supply of beef, dairy (clam chowder and ice cream), and sugar.

The penalty will be short-term only (I hope), but the memory of this outing with the family will linger for months.

When I was a child, I liked opening presents and being the center of attention. After I grew up, birthdays came and went for 40 years with little recognition. Now I'm beginning to appreciate them more...

Saturday, November 02, 2024

Warren Buffett Thinks Taxes are Going Up, and So Should You

The Berkshire Hathaway shareholders' meeting in Omaha last May.
Continuing its liquidation of Apple stock, Berkshire Hathaway sold a lot more in the third quarter: [bold added]
The Omaha, Neb., company ended September with $69.9 billion of the iPhone maker’s shares, according to a quarterly report released Saturday. That means Berkshire sold about 25% of the 400 million Apple shares it brought into the third quarter. Berkshire held slightly more than 900 million Apple shares at the end of last year.

Even after the sales, Apple was Berkshire’s largest stockholding at the end of September. Apple has been a major bet for Berkshire, and one that paid off big time as tech-hungry investors drove the stock ever higher in recent years.

This year, Berkshire has slashed the position, though Buffett has continued to praise the company. He told an arena of shareholders at Berkshire’s annual meeting in May that Apple was “an even better business” than American Express and Coca-Cola, two other big holdings, and hinted that tax considerations might have played a role in the decision to sell some shares.

Apple shares are up 16% this year and trading near records.
Market commentators generally have explained Berkshire's actions to be the result of portfolio-risk reduction (overconcentration in one stock) and the perceived over-valuation of Apple stock according to several metrics. However, the impact of higher corporate income tax rates after 2025 should not be underestimated in Warren Buffett's decision-making. Higher tax rates have a direct, immediate negative impact on cash flow, while portfolio diversification increases portfolio returns probabilistically but are not guaranteed.

Unless the Republicans make a clean sweep of the Presidency and Congress, tax rates are likely to go up. And even if the Republicans do win, the Grand Old Party still has traditionalists who are fiscally conservative. Higher-income taxpayers would be foolish not to take into consideration the likelihood of higher tax rates after 2025, and some are taking action now.
Among the moves investors might want to make if they are convinced taxes are headed higher is to sell stocks. Selling now would lock in capital gains at the current 20% top rate.

Kamala Harris proposes a new top capital-gains rate of 28% for high earners. She is also proposing to increase the investment income surtax. Although Donald Trump has campaigned on extending the 2017 law, taxpayers are also worried taxes could move higher if he wins, because of the nation’s finances and economy...

Potential changes to capital-gains taxes, more likely with a Democratic sweep, are prompting some taxpayers to sell stock or shares in a business. In addition to the higher capital-gains rate for those earning $1 million or more, Harris proposes increasing the 3.8% investment income surtax to 5% for taxpayers with income above $400,000.
Your humble taxpaying blogger may make some income-accelerating moves, such as converting traditional IRA moneys to a Roth IRA before year-end, but will wait till next year to take action after the election smoke clears.

Friday, November 01, 2024

Crouching Lion

I always had a hard time envisioning the lion (Peebles/SFGate)
My father liked to load the kids in the family car and "drive around the island" on weekends. We would head to the North Shore and return via the single-lane highway on the Windward (eastern) side.

The 2-3 hour trip seemed interminable to this Island kid, and the Crouching Lion rock formation signalled that we were 30 minutes from Kaneohe, which was 30 minutes from central Honolulu.

60 years later I no longer rush through the route, choosing to stop and savor the moment:
Because we don't know when we will die,
we get to think of life as an inexhaustible well.
Yet everything happens only
a certain number of times,
and a very small number really.
How many more times will you remember a certain afternoon of your childhood,
some afternoon that's so deeply a part of your being that you can't even conceive
of your life without it.
Perhaps four or five times more, perhaps not even that.
How many more times will you watch the full moon rise?
Perhaps twenty. And yet it all seems limitless.
--Paul Bowles, The Sheltering Sky
(Krause/SFGate photo)
Now there's another reason to go to the Windward side. The Crouching Lion Restaurant has re-opened.
Perched above the ocean, the restaurant remains one of the few dining establishments available in the windward neighborhood. It has changed hands throughout the years because of financial challenges. Eventually, it closed down. It was a daunting prospect for potential investors because of its remote location. It also required a significant amount of investment to restore.

But it was a challenge that new owner Eddie Kim was willing to take on, and he purchased the property in 2022 for $3.7 million. “I wanted to try something new,” he says. “After years of being an educator, it was time for a new adventure.” The restaurant officially reopened this past May. While Kim is new to the restaurant business, his goals are simple: “I wanted to create a restaurant where I would want to eat at and bring family and friends.”
For decades I've noticed the cars parked outside but never stopped. It's time I did.

Thursday, October 31, 2024

Pod Living in SF's Future

$700 buys you the top or bottom
If I were single and in my 20's, starting a job in San Francisco, and didn't care about having a social life, I would definitely consider renting a sleeping pod:
Brownstone’s model is different in that it’s renting out pods that are much smaller in size than a traditional bedroom and more akin to Japan’s capsule hotels, which keeps prices lower. It’s also not trying to program social gatherings for residents, as previous startups have sought to do.
The reported rent of $700 per month is a fraction of the cost of a studio apartment. Even if one can afford to pay much more for housing, being a pod person may appeal to finance or engineering types who work long hours in the office and just need a place to crash and wash up. (This recalls the 2016 case of the Google engineer who claimed he was able to build his savings by $6,000 per month by living in a truck.)

Your humble blogger claims to have no expertise in San Francisco commercial real estate, but pod living appears to be one solution to 1) high housing costs and 2) a way to attract some young highly paid professionals back to the City and rejuvenate its night life.

Converting excess office buildings to pod housing is much less costly than conversion to standard apartments and condos. The only holdup seems to be, unsurprisingly, San Francisco's disorganized, inefficient regulatory agencies:
But last year, city officials ruled that the pods violated building codes because Brownstone hadn’t gotten approval for the residential conversion and the building was a safety hazard, in part because the front door required a key to open from the inside.

James Stallworth, CEO of Brownstone Shared Housing, said the city’s planning department was unresponsive for around nine months as the company sought to bring the project up to code. He said, ultimately, only a few minor changes were implemented: A stove was installed in the communal kitchen, permits were approved for a shower that was installed and the front door access was remedied.

Dan Sider, the planning department's chief of staff, said claims that the department was unresponsive were “utter nonsense” and said Stallworth only filed an application in July after “months of noncooperation.”

Thirteen residents were allowed to continue living in the building during that time, but Stallworth said the city told Brownstone to stop accepting new residents. It’s now advertising the pods for rent again.

Wednesday, October 30, 2024

Dodgers Win World Series

The Los Angeles Dodgers won the 2024 World Series by defeating the New York Yankees in Game 5:
The Los Angeles Dodgers won their second World Series championship in five seasons, overcoming a five-run deficit with the help of three Yankees defensive miscues and rallying on sacrifice flies from Gavin Lux and Mookie Betts in the eighth inning to beat New York 7-6 in Game 5 on Wednesday night
Personal note; A typical "homer," your humble blogger takes an interest in Major League Baseball only when the San Francisco Giants have a contending team.

But this is one World Series that any boomer sports fan had to watch. We remember when baseball was head and shoulders above the NFL and NBA, and the '50's and '60's Yankees and Dodgers had some of the most famous players ever to play the sport. In 2024 the Yankees and the Dodgers had the most glamor and the fattest payrolls--along with their storied histories--and this World Series would demonstrate whether baseball still deserved a place at the top of the sports pyramid.
This is the World Series that Major League Baseball has been dreaming about.

The New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers are the most prestigious and popular franchises in the sport, loaded with enough star power to light up a small city. Shohei Ohtani is a once-in-a-century talent, now playing on the game’s biggest stage for the first time. Network executives are betting that it will be the most-watched Fall Classic in years.

“Baseball purists probably love it. I know MLB probably loves it. Fox definitely loves it,” Yankees pitcher Carlos Rodón said ahead of Friday’s Game 1. “There’s definitely some glamor to it.”

...There are five different players in this World Series—Ohtani, Judge, Freeman, Betts and Yankees slugger Giancarlo Stanton—who have won an MVP award, and that doesn’t even count injured Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw. Assuming they all appear in a game, it will be an all-time record.

One of those players has been named MVP in six of the past seven seasons, a streak that is going to continue with Ohtani and Judge, the presumed MVPs for 2024. It will make this the first World Series since 2012 and just the second since 1988 to feature both MVPs from that season.
The business assessments have to wait on the viewership ratings and other financial analytics, but from this fan's standpoint the 2024 World Series had many interesting and suspenseful moments that showcased why baseball is unique and fascinating.

Tuesday, October 29, 2024

A Good Sign

It's the first time this has happened in this boomer's life; I cracked open an egg with a double yolk.
Eggs with two yolks are fairly rare: statistically speaking, you might find them in just 1 of every 1,000 eggs. These eggs typically come from two types of hens: younger hens whose bodies are still just learning how to lay, and older birds who are experiencing the natural course of reproductive changes as they age.

In fact, many egg anomalies, such as blood spots, follow the same pattern. Like humans, hens' bodies tend to go through their most significant changes during "adolescence" and late into adulthood, so it's during these two periods of time in a flock's life that we tend to see a higher rate of unique and irregular eggs.
In cultures as different as Islam and China's, a double-yolked egg is a sign of good luck. It would be pleasing and surprising if there's some truth to that superstition.

Monday, October 28, 2024

Haleakala Ride

Looking down at the clouds from the summit (Volcano tours)
Another activity that I enjoyed in my younger days may be outlawed.
A popular Hawaii tourist activity, Maui downhill bicycle tours offer visitors an opportunity to see stunning landscapes on a ride down the winding roads of Haleakala with little physical exertion.

The activity, however, comes with some risk, as bicyclists share the road with vehicles, whose drivers sometimes get impatient, and downhill speeds may cause a rider to lose control.

Throughout its history, accidents have happened. Some have died. Earlier this month, Jeffrey Hins, a 68-year-old visitor from Arizona, was killed while biking down Haleakala as part of a group. The Maui Police Department said Hins crossed the yellow double-solid lane into the oncoming lane and crashed into a vehicle.

A new law addressing the safety of commercial guided and unguided bike tours, Ordinance 5439, just went into effect last year to alleviate concerns about safety and disruption to local traffic.,,“There’s been some in the community who want an outright ban on this type of industry operating on the road,” Mike Molina told KHON-TV. Molina, a former Maui County councilmember, championed the new law...

Haleakala downhill bicycle tours started in 1983. Over the next 20 years, the industry flourished, as it was a way for visitors to see Haleakala National Park at sunrise, then do a fun experiential activity. By 2007, about 90,000 visitors participated in bike tours annually, and revenues were estimated at $11 million...

Last year was the first time in 15 years that a new law was enacted to regulate the industry. Ordinance 5439 limits commercial tours to 10 riders, requires a minimum age of 15 and restricts guided and unguided tours to between Mile Marker 3 and Mile Marker 9.5 on Haleakala Crater Road.

Only a handful of companies continue to operate the downhill bike tours today and have altered their itineraries to accommodate the changes.

Depending on the operator, guided tours begin with a van ride up Haleakala Volcano to 10,000 feet to watch the sunrise inside Haleakala National Park. Then, the van brings the group down to around 6,500 feet, where cyclists launch after a safety briefing. Bicyclists then descend on a winding road of 29 switchbacks, while the van follows behind.

Ordinance 5439 cut some mileage from the tours by prohibiting specific areas of road and excluding the town of Kula. Operators have improvised by adding a second bike loop of the switchbacks, a van ride through Kula or lunch stop in Makawao, before continuing on the bikes to ride down to Haiku or Paia, where the tour ends.
I've done the summit downhill a number of times, the most recent occasion being a corporate retreat in the mid-1990's. We watched the sun rise over the crater, then cruised to Paia without stopping. It was early morning, traffic was light, and this weekend bicyclist used the brakes often. However, it is easy to see how increased auto traffic, combined with unskilled bicycle tourists, made serious accidents inevitable. Like many things in life, I'm glad I got to do the Haleakala ride before it got regulated away.

Sunday, October 27, 2024

Kamala Harris Goes to Church

(Atlanta Journal-Constitution photo)
Kamala Harris has had trouble attracting Christian, particularly Catholic, voters due to her pro-abortion stance, so she began the day at a Black church in Philadelphia:
Vice President Kamala Harris started her Sunday at services at the Church of Christian Compassion in West Philadelphia. She told the largely Black congregation that the “next nine days will test us—they will demand everything we’ve got.”

“In this moment, we do face a real question: What kind of country do we want to live in? A country of chaos, fear and hate, or a country of freedom, justice, and compassion?” Harris asked, adding, “The great thing about living in a democracy is we, the people, have the choice to answer that question.” Harris is spending the day in the Philadelphia area as polls show a tight race in Pennsylvania, the nation’s largest battleground state.
Vice President Harris is also trying to counter the anti-Christian impression of her "you guys are at the wrong rally" riposte when hecklers shouted "Jesus is Lord" and "Christ is King." (Her campaign asserts that she was responding to cries of "Lies! Lies! Lies!").

Despite her warm reception by the congregation, I doubt her appearance changed anyone's mind.

Saturday, October 26, 2024

Cancer: Too Much Information

We're lucky we live close to two research centers
This is troubling but not surprising: many oncologists can't stay abreast of new developments in cancer research. [bold added]
Cancer care is getting more complicated, thanks to a better understanding of cancer’s molecular underpinnings. Doctors now think of cancer as more than 100 distinct diseases, with cancers including lung, breast and bladder broken into subtypes.

That complexity is contributing to a divide in how patients fare depending on where they go.

Oncologists at magnet cancer centers that dot the U.S. develop expertise in just a few cancer subtypes. They draw from a rapidly expanding arsenal of new drugs for specific and sometimes rare cancers, including experimental ones that aren’t widely available.

But most people get treated locally to be near home and jobs. Local oncologists, faced with a range of cancers, can’t stay up-to-date on everything. The National Comprehensive Cancer Network updated its nearly 90 guidelines across cancer types more than 200 times in the past year.

A third of 120 patients who sought a second opinion at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center in New York had their treatment changed, a 2023 review found. MD Anderson Cancer Center in Houston said about one in five of its new patients are rediagnosed or restaged. Patients at academic centers have better outcomes for cancers including lung and multiple myeloma, studies show.

“It’s possible that one out of five patients in America is getting the wrong treatment,” said Dr. Peter WT Pisters, MD Anderson’s president.
I don't fault oncologists for finding it hard to do keep up with the research while treating patients by day. This is one obvious application for artificial intelligence, i.e., sifting through haystacks of information to find the needle that may apply to a patient.

Meanwhile, it behooves us all to stay alive as long as possible to give us the best chance for the science to cure the diseases that might kill us.

Friday, October 25, 2024

Dr. Bryant Lin

Bryant Lin teaching a class on Oct. 23 (Merc photo)
A member of our family has been seeing Dr. Bryant Lin at Stanford Health for years. Lately Dr. Lin has been unavailable. Now we know why; he has been battling lung cancer.
“If you look at the survival curves, you would give up. But you may be one of the lucky ones. You need to have optimism, tinged with reality,” said Lin, a beloved clinical professor and 50-year-old nonsmoker with two teenage sons who was diagnosed with advanced metastatic lung cancer earlier this year.

...Lin initially dismissed an annoying cough that started last spring. But it continued to worsen, causing him to wheeze.

“I’ve never had a puff of smoke of anything in my life,” he said.

In one week, he got stunning news. What he assumed was just a normal spring allergy was diagnosed as stage IV non-small cell cancer, which had already progressed to his bones and liver, with 50 lesions in his brain.

The diagnosis, about a month before his 50th birthday, “was so drastically different than what I was expecting,” he said. He was quickly hospitalized...

Lung cancer causes more deaths than any other cancer, with survival rates decreasing as the severity increases. While smokers make up the majority of those cases, 15% to 20% of people with lung cancer are non-smoking, like Lin. There is new evidence of an increase in the incidence of lung cancer in nonsmokers, although no one knows why. It is largely a silent disease that goes undetected for a dangerously long period.

The gene mutation that causes the cancer disproportionately affects those of Asian descent.

While not cured, Lin’s scans are strikingly improved after an innovative medicine called osimertinib, which targets his specific mutation. It blocks proteins that control cell growth and division. His cough is gone, and he is almost symptom-free...

With roles reversed, Lin says he is learning both how to be a patient and how to more fully be a doctor.

He urges doctors to not focus just on “medical science things” but the emotional and practical challenges of their patients. He urges patients to build tight community of support and deepen their relationship with their doctor, who can act as an advocate when things go wrong.

He’s not sure how much time he has left. “One year? Two years? Five years?” The class, he said, “is to give back to my community as I go through this.”
After receiving his terminal diagnosis, Dr. Bryant Lin continues not only to fight the disease but teaches classes at Stanford Hospital, including his own life experience in the content. None of us know with certainty how we might react to such news; character reveals itself in such moments.

Thursday, October 24, 2024

SF Bay Area: the IncredibleTalent is Still Here

Using 192 laser beams, this Lawrence-Livermore apparatus ignited
a hydrogen fuel pellet the size of a peppercorn in 2022. The experiment
produced more energy than it consumed and showed fusion
energy was possible. (DOE/Chronicle)
In a man-bites-dog story an Austin tech startup is moving to the San Francisco Bay Area. [bold added]
Focused Energy, a startup specializing in laser fusion for clean energy, is relocating its U.S. headquarters from Austin to the Bay Area.

The German company announced plans on Wednesday to establish a state-of-the-art facility in the region, with an investment of $65 million. The facility will house some of the world’s most advanced lasers, crucial for developing commercially viable fusion energy, according to a press release.

Scott Mercer, CEO of Focused Energy, said that the move aims to leverage the “incredible pool of talent” in the Bay Area and benefit from established methodologies developed by scientists at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, which achieved net energy gain for the first time in December 2022...

With over $175 million in private and public funding, Focused Energy is one of eight fusion companies selected by the U.S. Department of Energy for support under its Milestone-Based Fusion Development Program.

The company has also received significant grants from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research to further its research and development initiatives.

Although numerous California companies such as Oracle, Tesla and Chevron have relocated their headquarters to Texas in recent years, this case illustrates the opposite trend.

The new Bay Area facility will enhance laser efficiency and establish a global supply chain necessary for scaling commercial fusion operations.

Once fully operational, fusion fuel equivalent to “three soda cans” will be capable of powering a city the size of San Francisco for an entire day, Focused Energy said.
Startups' main objective is to demonstrate their proof-of-concept. Cutting costs and red tape will be prioritized later, and the company can then decide if California is where it wishes to be planted.

Meanwhile, it's nice to know that the Bay Area hasn't yet dissipated its “incredible pool of talent” that attracts tech companies around the world. Your humble blogger still holds out hope that we can undo California's status as the worst-taxed, most woke, and most over-regulated State in the Union.

Wednesday, October 23, 2024

Gate Lice

(Image from wheelchair travel)
This airport problem is getting worse: airline passengers crowd the gate and board ahead of their assigned group. [bold added]
American Airlines is piloting a new system aimed at curbing the phenomenon known as “gate lice,” an industry term used to describe passengers who crowd the boarding area ahead of their assigned group.

The initiative comes in response to growing frustration around travelers who often disregard boarding instructions, leading to chaotic scenes at the gate.

While the new technology won’t speed up departures, it seeks to restore order to the boarding process, said the airline, the fourth largest operator out of San Francisco International Airport.

The system involves a warning sound triggered when passengers attempt to board outside their assigned group. When a boarding pass is scanned, an “audible alert” will notify the gate agent, displaying the passenger’s correct group number.

Many passengers rush to the gate out of anxiety or a herd mentality, despite having designated boarding groups, according to psychologists who have studied the “gate lice” phenomenon. But for those who genuinely need early access — such as families or travelers with disabilities — airlines say the prioritization system is essential. They also cite the need to protect the revenue they receive from those who have paid for these privileges.
One of the cultural differences that used to distinguish Americans from some, not all, Asian countries is that Americans would stand in line and wait their turn, while non-Americans would push their way through to get on buses, trains, and elevators. In the U.S. the willingness to wait is still around, but it began eroding a couple of generations ago.

Your humble blogger applauds the enforcement of the old norm, although the term "gate lice" is a bit mean. But I suppose the cultural norm against name-calling has eroded, too.

Tuesday, October 22, 2024

The Subtlety of Politics

For the past month I've been watching the candidates for national office give speeches and interviews. I've been impressed with the ability of J.D. Vance to respond to questions, hostile or otherwise, and show that he has more than a surface knowledge of the issues. Of the four candidates I think he is the most skilled at dealing with the press.

Below is an example, albeit during a friendly interview with Fox News' Dana Perino:



At the 1:25 mark he says "You can't just walk into a McDonald's and sign a W-9 and actually go onto the payroll." (The W-9 is the IRS form in which a new employee declares his Social Security Number to his employer.) The fact that Mr. Vance knew the correct form number and stated it when he didn't have to was impressive to this career accountant.

Additional comment on McDonald's: there's a ridiculous controversy about whether Kamala Harris worked at McDonald's. She claims that she did, and her detractors say that she didn't; neither side has produced evidence to support their position, and McDonald's has no record of her employment. (The Harris campaign believes that she worked during the summer of 1983 at the McDonald's on Central Avenue in Alameda, California.)

There's an easy way to check. Just ask the Social Security Administration:
We can give you copies or printouts of your Forms W-2 for any year from 1978 to the present. You can get free copies if you need them for a Social Security-related reason. But there is a fee of $62 per request if you need them for an unrelated reason. You can also get a transcript or copy of your Form W-2 from the Internal Revenue Service. However, state and local tax information isn’t available if you e-filed your tax return.
How tough would it be for Kamala Harris to request a copy of her 1983 W-2 from the SSA or IRS and put the matter to rest? The fact that she hasn't done so is a strong indicator that she did not work at McDonald's, but of course yours truly is just a simple accountant who knows nothing about the subtlety of politics.

Monday, October 21, 2024

"Not First, But Best"

AAPL is 10X as valuable as it was when Steve Jobs died on October 5, 2011




(Photo by Sakuma/WSJ)
Steve Jobs gets all the adulation, but Tim Cook deserves his own chapter in the history of American business. Steve Jobs rescued Apple from insolvency and transformed it into the world's most innovative consumer company; Tim Cook was handed the keys in 2011 and oversaw its growth into an international colossus that is worth ten times as much as it was when he took over. Perhaps we should focus less on what Apple products are in the pipeline than the man himself. The WSJ ran a profile over the weekend: [bold added]
There is one idea that encapsulates the approach to innovation that makes all of it possible—and it’s maybe the closest thing to a grand unified theory of Apple. It’s a philosophy of just four words that describe Apple’s past, present and definitely its future. Four words that help explain why this was the year the company plowed into spatial computing and artificial intelligence. During one of those epochal years when it feels like everything is about to change again, I heard them over and over, in conversation with Apple executives and Cook himself: Not first, but best.

...“We weren’t the first to do intelligence,” he says. “But we’ve done it in a way that we think is the best for the customer.”...He puts Apple Intelligence in the same pantheon of innovative breakthroughs as the iPod’s click wheel and the iPhone’s touch interface. “I think we’ll look back and it will be one of these air pockets that happened to get you on a different technology curve,” he says.
Tim Cook, 64, may not be as inventive as Steve Jobs, but he has arrived at the point where he trusts his ability to select that one "great" idea from the merely good ones that Apple considers every day. As a shareholder, I hope his tenure continues for a long, long time.

Sunday, October 20, 2024

Making October Count

Currier & Ives, American Homestead Autumn
Forget about rebooting one's life every new year. The month for goal setting is October, according to the TikTok meme "October Theory":
October Theory is catching on partly because it sets someone up for success by the time January rolls around, say fans of the trend. Instead of picking up a new habit in the dead of winter—at the same time everyone else is trying to make it to the gym, for instance—it has already been in place for three months...

Others view October as a last chance to fulfill the goals and aspirations they set months ago.
October is the perfect month for recalibration. There's still time to complete the unfinished aspirations for this year and test-run the goals for the next. The busy-ness of Halloween/Thanksgiving/Christmas is still weeks away, and the weather is pleasant and often magnificent.

Metaphorically, we baby boomers (60-78 years old) are in or about to enter the winter of our lives, if indeed we are lucky to be still alive, and there are not many seasons left. Your humble blogger feels the fierce urgency and intends to make this October count.

Saturday, October 19, 2024

Another Group That is Falling Through the Cracks

Elena Portacolone (research gate photo)
We are used to hearing about vulnerable subsets of the American population who need a lot of help in taking care of themselves. Here's another one that numbers in the millions: [bold added]
]Sociologist Elena] Portacolone got to work and now leads the Living Alone With Cognitive Impairment Project at UCSF. The project estimates that that at least 4.3 million people 55 or older who have cognitive impairment or dementia live alone in the United States.

About half have trouble with daily activities such as bathing, eating, cooking, shopping, taking medications, and managing money, according to their research. But only 1 in 3 received help with at least one such activity.

Compared with other older adults who live by themselves, people living alone with cognitive impairment are older, more likely to be women, and disproportionately Black or Latino, with lower levels of education, wealth, and homeownership. Yet only 21% qualify for publicly funded programs such as Medicaid that pay for aides to provide services in the home.
Increased longevity is a societal good, but smaller families, that is, fewer relatives to check on a person, and the decline of churches and other community organizations have resulted in millions of aging, cognitively impaired adults falling through the cracks.

Friday, October 18, 2024

Costco Napa - No Surprise

Selman Medina (Chron photo)
As further proof that its stores are not all alike, the new warehouse that opened in Napa today already is reputed to have one of the best wine selections among Costco's 140 California stores. [bold added]
[Selman] Medina is a Bay Area Costco legend. He spent 11 years commuting from Napa to work the floor of the wine section at the Novato Costco, widely believed to have the best wine section of any Costco in California. He’s one of 30 “wine stewards” employed at Costco stores across the U.S., and according to Bay Area Costco wine buyer Mark Kalkbrenner, he’s one of two wine steward program originals still standing.
Costco is one of the best-run and most popular retailers in the country. It doesn't go overboard on standardization and has a few products (e.g., surfboards in Hawaii warehouses) that cater to the local market. It's no surprise that its new store in wine country has an excellent wine selection, overseen by an expert buyer.

Thursday, October 17, 2024

Watching a Subspecies of Money Men

Last month we commented about how the super-rich signal their wealth to each other without making it obvious that's what they're trying to do. But not all of them, or those trying to be as wealthy as they are, are into that game at least when it comes to timepieces.

WSJ: The Anti-Status Watch: Why Men in Finance Love Cheap, Cheesy Watches
Sponge Bob and Avengers watches worn by financiers
Patrick Lyons and Leroy Dikito (WSJ/Lyons/Dikito)
Though finance guys famously flaunt Rolexes or Patek Philippes on their wrists, an established subspecies of money men goes the other way entirely. In place of a sleek steel case and elegant ceramic dial? Mickey Mouse. SpongeBob SquarePants. Fanta-orange rubber straps.

Over the years, highfliers have made headlines for sporting Swatches. (See: Blackstone Group CEO Stephen A. Schwarzman or former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein.) That “wealthy guy, cheap watch” ethos continues to resonate in boardrooms and on trading floors, with men of all seniority levels embracing plasticky, offbeat designs, from superhero models to calculator Casios. Many resemble something you might win in a claw machine. Priced from $30 to a few hundred bucks, they’re a bit of fun and a different sort of flex, conveying an “I don’t need a Rolex” bravado that comes from having made it. Call them anti-status watches.
A practical reason for this anti-status affectation: cheap, everyday watches can be used as conversation starters in business conversations.

It's also possible to be viewed as truly wealthy, especially if everyone knows that a person is rolling in it, by not appearing to care about looking the part. The psychology of wealth, like the most important aspects of life, can be complicated.

Wednesday, October 16, 2024

Right Before Our Eyes



This happened on Sunday and was widely reported on all media channels. Your humble blogger had nothing to add, so initially refrained from comment.

Upon reconsideration, I thought that, of all the important events that have happened or likely will happen this October in a Presidential Election year, this is the one that will be remembered centuries from now.

WSJ: SpaceX Catches Huge Booster Back at Launchpad [bold added]
SpaceX caught a towering booster rocket back at its launchpad in south Texas, an engineering milestone for the Starship vehicle at the center of Elon Musk’s plans for deep-space exploration.

The Super Heavy booster, the first stage of Starship, lifted off from south Texas on Sunday morning and propelled the Starship craft into space. Shortly after the launch, SpaceX made the call to return the booster back to the pad from which it had launched.

A livestream from SpaceX showed the device zipping back toward the facility, and, as it approached a tower, its engines slowed the enormous device down, allowing for the catch around 8:30 a.m. ET. The vehicle latched down on mechanical arms sticking out of the tower.

It was SpaceX’s first attempt at the catch, a feat that the company and Musk, its chief executive, have said is key to reducing the cost of rocket launches...

Starship, which consists of the Super Heavy booster and Starship spacecraft, stands about 400 feet tall when it is launched.
Elon Musk is that rarest of technological pioneers who prioritizes the economic viability of his product. After the Apollo missions NASA lost its funding because its programs were always viewed as nice-to-have, not got-to-have. Reusability of boosters will drive down the cost sufficiently to make space travel more accessible and perhaps even profitable in its own right.

Tuesday, October 15, 2024

Saving One Dollar at 99 Ranch

This year I've started to look my age. I've lost hair, and what I have remaining has turned white. Which is background to the following:

We've been shopping at the local 99 Ranch Market for 20 years. As I was checking out, the middle-aged Chinese man at the register said, "I'll get you a senior discount." I didn't even know 99 Ranch had one. Sure, I shrugged.

He put his hands on his hips and bellowed, "Senior....senior!" Several customers turned their heads. Apparently the senior discount had to be approved by the manager. She came over in less than a minute and scanned her cellphone over a reader, authorizing the transaction. So 99 Ranch does use current technology, except for the part where cashiers yell for the manager.

I studied the receipt. The vegetables, ramen, and pastries cost $23.59, and the 5% senior discount saved $1.18. After writing the check to the U.S, Treasury for our 2023 income taxes, every penny counts.

Monday, October 14, 2024

Procrastination Hits the Immovable Deadline

Your humble blogger spent most of Sunday night and Monday morning working on his 2023 income taxes. While there are some justifiable reasons for his procrastination, it's hard to utter with a straight face that he couldn't have spared some time in the six months since April 15th to finish the task. October 15th is the drop-dead due date for filing.

But that's water under the bridge. I completed the input forms and submitted them to the processor. The preliminary run came back this afternoon, and there was a $10,000 error that should be easily fixable. Tomorrow I'll phone in the correction, get back the final run in the afternoon and drop it off at the Post Office by 5 p.m. Easy as pie.

Sunday, October 13, 2024

A Choice, But Not Really

The priest read from Mark 10:
Jesus, looking at him, loved him and said, “You lack one thing; go, sell what you own, and give the money to the poor, and you will have treasure in heaven; then come, follow me.” When he heard this, he was shocked and went away grieving, for he had many possessions.

Then Jesus looked around and said to his disciples, “How hard it will be for those who have wealth to enter the kingdom of God!”
It is true that most people---yours truly included---try to build up their wealth to a point where it provides protection against the exigencies of life. It's very difficult to "sell what you own, and give the money to the poor" and trust in God to take care of our future.

There are other examples in the Bible of how money is an obstacle to faith. Later in Mark, Jesus observes, "It is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for someone who is rich to enter the kingdom of God."

However, it would be a mistake to focus on wealth as the sole impediment to faith. I have encountered people who claim that money is not important to them. Putting aside whether I believe them or not, I have observed that certain activities (cooking and dining, sports, grandchildren) are their highest priority--and just ask some young people to turn off their phones for a day.

It's very difficult to leave everything behind, though the irony is that we eventually will have no choice in the matter.

Saturday, October 12, 2024

The Road Not Taken

Perhaps the importance of "which road
do I take" is not the decision but the fact there
are at least two roads (WSJ/Carole Hénaff)
In unhappy situations where we tell ourselves that there's no other option (e.g., staying in a bad job or marriage), we really do have a choice. It's just that we are unwilling to face the consequences of that choice. [bold added]
But the truth, though it often makes people indignant to hear it, is that it’s almost never literally the case that you have to meet a work deadline, honor a commitment, answer an email, fulfill a family obligation or anything else. The astounding reality—in the words of Sheldon B. Kopp, a genial and brilliant American psychotherapist who died in 1999—is that you’re pretty much free to do whatever you like. You need only face the consequences.

Consequences aren’t optional. Every choice you make comes with some sort of consequences, because at any instant you can only pick one path, and must deal with the repercussions of not picking any of the others. Spending a week’s holiday in Rome means not spending that same week in Paris. Avoiding a conflict in the short term means letting a bad situation fester.

Freedom isn’t a matter of somehow wriggling free of the costs of your choice—that’s never an option. It means realizing that nothing can stop you from doing anything at all, so long as you’re willing to pay those costs. Unless you’re being physically coerced into doing something, the notion that you “have to” do it just means that you don’t want to pay the price of refusing to do it. After all, it’s perfectly possible for you to quit your job with no backup plan. You could book a one-way ticket to Rio de Janeiro, or rob a bank, or tell your social media followers your honest views.

The economist Thomas Sowell summed things up by saying that there are no solutions, only trade-offs. The only questions to ask about any choice is what the price is, and whether or not it’s worth paying.
The benefit of the I-really-do-have-a-choice perspective may have an effect on one's psychological well-being.
If a path you’d love to take is genuinely likely to leave you destitute, or seriously harmed in some other way, then you probably shouldn’t take it. But for most of us, if we’re being honest with ourselves, the temptation is often to exaggerate potential consequences, so as to spare ourselves the burden of making a bold choice. The philosopher Jean-Paul Sartre observed that there’s a secret comfort in telling yourself you’ve got no options, because it’s easier to wallow in feeling trapped than to face the dizzying responsibilities of freedom...

Whatever choice you make, so long as you make it in the spirit of facing the consequences, the result will be freedom—not freedom from limitation, which is something we unfortunately never get to experience, but freedom in limitation. Freedom to examine the trade-offs—because there will always be trade-offs—and then to opt for whichever trade-off you like.
Thanksgiving will soon be here, and, although circumstances stay the same, changing our viewpoint toward life is a glass half full instead of a glass half empty makes all the difference in our feelings about the world.

Friday, October 11, 2024

Humorbragging

(Illustration by Verplancke/WSJ)
Humblebragging (“I hate that I look so young; even a 19-year-old hit on me!”) has been around for years. Now there's humorbragging.
A team of researchers have found that “humorbragging”—referring to your accomplishments through a veil of humor—allows people to play up their skills without coming across as smug or conceited. And that makes them more likely to get hired or get their pitch accepted...

The researchers used a series of studies to test the impact of what they called humorbragging. In one instance, they sent out two résumés to 345 companies—but one version of the résumé added a dash of self-promotional humor instead of being purely serious: “The more coffee you can provide, the more output I will produce.” The résumés with the joke got an email or a callback by 156 companies, versus 125 for the others.

Another study got similar results when looking at humorous bragging on the first four seasons of “Shark Tank”—people who used humor to highlight their accomplishments were more likely to get funding than others.
Speaking from personal experience (okay, missteps) it's really tough to be funny, especially in a business setting.

Many subjects should not even be broached, or should be mentioned only within narrow constraints. It's advisable to test-run your humorbrag before a trusted confidant. Because of the consequences of a poor reaction to your humorbrag, follow the advice of grammar teachers regarding commas: when in doubt leave it out.

Thursday, October 10, 2024

Santa Cruz Students Don't Know Why It's Popular

John Travolta wears the iconic T-shirt (SFGate/YouTube screenshot)
Most UC-Santa Cruz students don't know why its banana slug T-shirt is a sought-after item. The shirt's popularity is due to Pulp Fiction, Quentin Tarentino's greatest film, which celebrates its 30th anniversary this year.
“The Fiat [slug] is like the logo,” said [Jason] Cohen of the UCSC bookstore. “It’s a cartoon banana slug wearing glasses and reading Plato. It’s our best-selling logo, period. We sell it in many different capacities. I put that on academic planners and notebooks and all kinds of stuff.”

Among all the slug merch available, the Fiat Slug T-shirts remain the school’s top seller, by far, Ray Rideout, UCSC’s apparel buyer, told SFGATE. “Everyone gets it,” he said. “Anyone who’s seen the movie, it was the cleaner scene, right? When people — they find out where I work, they always send a picture of Travolta wearing it.”
Last month we noted how the banana slug has been named the official California state slug.

"Politics is downstream of culture" is a well-known saying. 30 years after it entered the culture, politics has recognized the cultural significance of the lowly banana slug.