Needing a Lot of Gold to Live in the Golden State

Retirement here is excellent
if you have enough money.

Bankrate says that California is the fourth-worst state in which to retire:

The analysis ranked states based on five categories: affordability, overall well-being, the cost and quality of health care, weather and crime. Affordability accounted for the largest share of a state’s ranking at 40%, while crime was the smallest, at 5%.

With this methodology, California ranked 47 out of the 50 states, largely due to its high cost of living. The state ranked 50th on the affordability scale, which took several data points into account, including cost of living, state and local sales taxes, property taxes and average cost of homeowners insurance, according to Bankrate.

The major reason that California ranks 47th is that it is the least affordable State, and affordability determines 40% of the score.

If one has a paid-up house and an adequate nest egg, California would rank much higher. Living on the Peninsula, we have access to excellent medical care within 30 miles (Stanford, Sutter Health, UCSF), the weather is mild all year, and crime and homelessness are controlled much better than in San Francisco and San Jose. Unless conditions worsen dramatically, these retirees will be staying put.

Paris in the summer when it sizzles

To those of us who followed the news 21 years ago, the French heat wave was an eye-opener: [bold added]

It was an unprecedented heatwave, which saw hospital services overwhelmed, fatalities rapidly counted by the dozens – if not hundreds – in hospitals and retirement homes, a health minister procrastinating at his holiday resort, and a government was slow to act....from August 2 to 17, 2003, France experienced its most prolonged and intense heatwave in the hottest summer since 1950. It was also the most deadly, claiming the lives of 15,000 people in a fortnight.

Trocadero Fountains, 2019 (CBS News)

After 2003 heat waves have been taken very seriously, and safety protocols (cooling centers, wellness checks) have been implemented.

Headline: Paris Wanted a Green Olympics. Team USA Wants Air Conditioning.

The organizers of the Summer Games, in their efforts to be friendlier to the environment, chose not to install air conditioning.

For much of the world, a few fitful nights of sweating in front of open windows is simply a reality of summer. But some Olympians are more reliant on climate control than others—namely the members of Team USA.

They are now discovering what generations of American tourists have encountered on their European vacations: When you ask for A/C in France, you’re more likely to receive a giant Gallic shrug.

Although athletes' quarters have been engineered to be cooler than non-A/C rooms (cold water circulates beneath the floors), portable air conditioners are available at extra cost.

But for those athletes who remain unconvinced and worry about their performance being derailed by sleeping in sweatbox apartments, Paris 2024 has made air conditioning units available for hire. And there are no gold medals for guessing which delegation leads the way.

The 592-strong Team USA delegation isn’t risking the slightest discomfort. Every single U.S. room and some common areas have been equipped with portable A/C units, according to a spokesman for the U.S. Olympic & Paralympic Committee. The Americans will all be able to take on any Paris heat wave by hanging out in meat-locker conditions, even though temperatures over the next 10 days aren’t expected to top 90.

I don't blame the athletes for removing all possible impediments to their performance. Unlike the one-percenters who always use private planes, the U.S. Olympians at least have a good reason for setting aside the global-warming principles the elite espouse for the rest of us.

MEI, not DEI

(Image from Diversio/Linkedin)

There's a new Human Resources acronym to learn about: [bold added]

From tech to tractors, companies are dialing back diversity, equity and inclusion efforts. Instead, a DEI alternative endorsed by Elon Musk could alter the fate of your next job application.

It’s known as MEI, short for merit, excellence and intelligence. As described by Scale AI Chief Executive Alexandr Wang, who helped popularize the term, MEI means hiring the best candidates for open roles without considering demographics.

The George Floyd riots of 2020 kickstarted the whole Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion movement, and companies raced to install DEI programs that would diversify their work forces, diversity being typically measured by the number of people they would hire who were not white, straight males.

Four years later the lack of a return--or perhaps even a negative return--on their investment have caused some companies to renounce DEI in favor of merit-based personnel policies.

Your humble blogger finds it important to note that one major organization that wholeheartedly embraces DEI is government, which has few performance metrics and no competition to show whether an alternative might be better.

By the way, expect DEI to be a hot-button topic this election year:

That tension is now in the brightest of spotlights, after President Biden abandoned his re-election bid and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris. Biden picked Harris as his running mate four years ago, after vowing to consider only women for the job. Almost immediately, some political opponents began painting Harris, who is Black and South Asian, as a “DEI hire.”

Fox News:

Florida Democratic Rep. Maxwell Frost said on Tuesday that calling Vice President Harris, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, a "DEI hire" was like using a "racial slur."

The race card has already been played, and there's still over three months to go to the election.

The Importance of Being Regular

(Image from youholistic)

The "normal" frequency of bowel movements ranges from three times a week to three times a day:[bold added]

The authors examined the health and lifestyle data of more than 1,400 healthy adults who had participated in a scientific wellness program at Arivale, a consumer health company that operated from 2015 to 2019 in Seattle. Participants, nearly 83% of whom were White, answered questionnaires and consented to blood and stool sampling.

Self-reported bowel movement frequency was separated into four groups: constipation (one or two bowel movements per week), low-normal (three to six weekly), high-normal (one to three per day) and diarrhea.

Unsurprisingly, both long-term constipation and diarrhea result in health problems:

The authors also found that several blood metabolites and blood plasma chemistries were linked with different frequencies. Byproducts of protein fermentation such as p-Cresol-sulfate and indoxyl sulfate, known to cause kidney damage, were enriched in constipated participants. Blood levels of indoxyl sulfate were also associated with reduced kidney function. And chemistries linked with liver damage were higher in people with diarrhea, who also had more inflammation.

We need to overcome our squeamishness about gastrointestinal problems because they could be indicators of life-threatening conditions in other parts of the body.

California Not-so-Forever

Aerial rendering from California Forever (SFGate)

California Forever's plans to build a utopian city in Solano County have suffered a setback. The group pulled its November ballot measure: [bold added]

that measure, if passed, would have removed some zoning restrictions that prevent this type of development in the area.

California Forever will instead "submit an application for a General Plan & Zoning Amendment and proceed with the normal County process which includes preparation of a full Environmental Impact Report and the negotiation and execution of Development Agreement,” Solano County Board of Supervisors Chair Mitch Mashburn said in a statement Monday.

The news was celebrated by many in Solano County, where skepticism about the project ran deep. The group’s secretive purchases of huge tracts of land first brought about national security fears, even from local politicians, who had no idea who was behind the project. When the plan to build a futuristic city was announced, California Forever faced widespread pushback, ranging from concerns about billionaire backers like Reid Hoffman and Laurene Powell Jobs to questions about the impacts on traffic, water usage and proximity to Travis Air Force Base.

Almost every Californian involved in a construction project groans under the entanglement of red tape, and the billionaire investor group is no exception.

Reid Hoffman and Laurene Powell Jobs are ardent supporters of the Democratic Party--most recently they have pledged support to Kamala Harris' Presidential run--implying that they want to spread California's Progressive principles to the rest of the country.

However, when it comes to their business, they can't stand living under those strictures either.

"endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights"

Trump supporters pray at the site of the
assassination attempt Saturday. (WSJ)

While there has been a great amount of contemporary controversy surrounding the appropriateness of religion in the public square, there is no question that one of the founding documents of the United States of America was based on Christian principles: [bold added]

There is ample precedent for a religious interpretation of the Declaration. On July 4, 1821, Secretary of State John Quincy Adams described it as the culmination of a Christian revolution. In “theories of the crown and the mitre,” Adams proposed, “man had no rights.” The discovery of inalienable liberty of conscience in matters of doctrine led to a re-evaluation of man’s obligation to ecclesiastical and civil powers. Whig reformers took tentative steps against “the oppressors of church and state” in Britain but still saw freedom as a privilege. The natural basis of rights was recognized only in America, where the government was founded on “a social compact formed upon the elementary principles of civil society, in which conquest and servitude had no part.”

...Adams’s words remind us that reconciliation has always been a feature of the American enterprise. We’d do well to heed his encouragement “to bless the Author of our being for the bounties of his providence, in casting our lot in this favored land; to remember with effusions of gratitude the sages who put forth, and the heroes who bled for the establishment of this Declaration.”

One doesn’t need to be a Christian nationalist to believe something miraculous happened in Philadelphia in 1776. Yet appreciation for that event should make even secular Americans wonder whether there are forces at work in history that transcend human understanding.

The Bible cites frequent instances of God's intervention in the affairs of man. His absence in the modern era--if He didn't stop the Holocaust of the Chosen People, when will He intervene?--lends credence to the notion that the Bible's examples were greatly exaggerated, or even imaginary, and/or that God has chosen to be aloof.

Every now and then a miracle occurs--the Founders' creation of a governing structure that lasted over 200 years, the clearing of the weather on D-Day, or the split-second turning of Donald Trump's head--resurrects the idea that God watches over the United States of America. Your humble blogger doesn't quite believe it either, but it's comforting to know that it's a possibility.

And now, for your edification, here is ChatGPT's take:

What evidence is there that the United States of America is a Christian nation?

The question of whether the United States is a Christian nation is complex and can be approached from various perspectives: historical, cultural, legal, and demographic. Here are some points often cited as evidence supporting the idea that the U.S. has Christian foundations:

Historical Evidence

1. Founding Fathers' Beliefs: Many of the Founding Fathers, including George Washington, John Adams, and Thomas Jefferson, were influenced by Christian ideals. Some of their writings reflect Christian values.

2. Colonial Charters and State Constitutions: Early colonial charters and state constitutions often referenced Christianity and required officeholders to be Christians.

3. Declaration of Independence: The Declaration of Independence references a "Creator" and "Nature's God," which some interpret as aligning with Christian beliefs.

Cultural Evidence

1. Major Holidays: Christmas and Easter, both Christian holidays, are national holidays.

2. Pledge of Allegiance: The Pledge of Allegiance includes the phrase "under God," which was added during the Cold War era.

3. In God We Trust: This phrase is the national motto and appears on U.S. currency.

Legal Evidence

1. Supreme Court Rulings: Some Supreme Court rulings, especially in the 19th and early 20th centuries, made references to the U.S. being a "Christian nation" in dicta (statements made in decisions that are not legally binding).

2. Chaplains in Government: Both the U.S. Congress and the military have chaplains who are predominantly Christian.

Demographic Evidence

1. Population: A significant majority of Americans identify as Christian. According to various surveys, the percentage has been decreasing but remains a majority.

Counterpoints

1. Constitutional Secularism: The U.S. Constitution does not establish a national religion and includes the Establishment Clause, which prohibits the government from making any law “respecting an establishment of religion.”

2. Diversity of Belief: The U.S. is home to a wide variety of religions and belief systems, and religious freedom is a foundational principle.

3. Founding Fathers' Intent: While many Founding Fathers were influenced by Christian ideals, they were also influenced by Enlightenment thinking and intended to create a secular government.

In summary, while there are many elements of American history, culture, and law that reflect Christian influences, the U.S. was explicitly founded with a separation of church and state, and it is home to a diverse array of religious beliefs.

Oahu No Ka Oi

Oahu is the cheapest, hands down (Merc)

The answer has long been obvious, even if the visitor doesn't have a free "hotel" and car like your humble blogger:

What’s the cheapest Hawaiian island to visit? [bold added]

Of the four main Hawaiian islands for tourism — Oahu, Maui, Kauai and the Big Island — Oahu is the cheapest Hawaiian island to visit by multiple metrics. Oahu has the lowest daily average hotel room rate of the islands and the lowest average daily spending per tourist, according to May 2024 data from the Hawai‘i Tourism Authority.

Though the average room rate in May 2024 across all of Hawaii was $342, Oahu hotel rooms average about 21% less, coming in at $272. That translates to about $70 per night less than the average...

One reason for Oahu’s lowest average room rate? The island also has the biggest supply. In fact, Oahu had more than double the number of hotel room nights than Maui, the next closest contender...

So why is spending on Oahu lower than on other islands? Not only are there more hotels, but also more restaurants and other types of businesses. According to the latest U.S. Census Bureau data, Honolulu County in Oahu had more than 21,000 businesses in 2020, while Maui County in Maui had fewer than 5,000. The increased competition lowers prices for consumers.

There’s also just a lot of free and cheap stuff to do on Oahu. Many of the top activities — including visiting the Pearl Harbor National Memorial, lounging on Waikiki Beach and hiking the Makapuʻu Point Lighthouse Trail — are free. It costs just $5 per person to enter Diamond Head State Monument (though it’s an additional $10 for parking).

And because of Honolulu’s robust bus network and walkability, it’s easy to get around Honolulu without a rental car. For places more difficult to get to, it’s possible to rent a car for just a day or rely on rideshare services like Uber or Lyft.

I use my parents' house and Nissan Altima when I go to Oahu, so I'm able to keep the trip cost to under $1,000 including plane fare. Even so, I typically only use the car to visit Mom in assisted living and like to spend my free time hoofing it around Waikiki and Ala Moana, where there are many quality, inexpensive restaurants.

Some of my friends, whom I like despite their snootiness, only go to the Neighbor Islands. I'm not ashamed to say that this middle-class kid prefers Oahu.

More Dependence Means More Vulnerability

The blue screen of death (SFGate)

The Microsoft Windows "blue screen of death" appeared on many thousands of computers worldwide and disrupted operations of a broad swath of major industries, including airlines, banks, and hospitals. The culprit wasn't a hacker but a software update issued by the cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike.

The outage, one of the most momentous in recent memory, crippled computers worldwide and drove home the brittleness of the interlaced global software systems that we rely on.

Triggered by an errant software update from the cybersecurity company CrowdStrike , the disruption spread as most people on the U.S. East Coast were asleep and those in Asia were starting their days.

Over the course of less than 80 minutes before CrowdStrike stopped it, the update sailed into Microsoft Windows-based computers worldwide, turning corporate laptops into unusable bricks and paralyzing operations at restaurants, media companies and other businesses. U.S. 911 call centers were disrupted, Amazon.com employees’ corporate email system went on the fritz, and tens of thousands of global flights were delayed or canceled.

“In my 30-year technical career, this is by far the biggest impact I’ve ever seen,” said B.J. Moore, chief information officer for the Renton, Wash.-based healthcare system Providence, whose hospitals struggled to access patient records, perform surgeries and conduct CT scans.

Fixing the problem involved technical steps that confounded many users who aren’t tech-savvy. Some corporate IT departments were still working to unfreeze computer systems late on Friday. CrowdStrike said the outage isn’t a cyberattack.

Unfortunately, restarting computers and removing the offending software had to be done manually---skills well within the capability of Windows users 30 years ago but unfortunately lacking in the majority of users today. (An analogy is being able to understand the basic workings of an automobile and effecting some minor repairs versus being totally helpless if anything should go wrong with one's car.)

IT teams often can fix problems on employees’ computers using remote-access software—tools that became especially common during the work-from-home boom of the pandemic. But for laptops and other PCs that approach doesn’t work if the machines can’t restart. For those systems, CrowdStrike’s fix had to be done in person—either by a tech-support person on site, or by a regular employee trying to apply the instructions.

Another aspect of resilience is being able to perform one's basic job functions if the computers--which after all were once regarded as just a tool--go down.

Speaking as one who used to close the books, make the payroll, invoice the customers, and pay the bills with an adding machine, a pen, and a typewriter, I am appalled by accountants who lack basic knowledge of the functioning of accounting systems.

Maybe this CrowdStrike incident will be a wake-up call to companies who don't want to risk their existence on the computers always working.

No Wonder the Courts Are Clogged

The basis of the lawsuit (Chron photo)

Your humble blogger, a non-lawyer, has viewed with aghast the burgeoning laws and regulations that over his lifetime "growed like Topsy".

And there's no natural brake to this phenomenon. A wrong or injustice is noted, some citizens cry "there ought to be a law", and the legislature responds. Presto, a law is created which governs a human activity that was heretofore outside the legal system's ambit.

Is it any wonder that the courts are backlogged?

A 7 year-old girl handed a drawing to a classmate, a lawsuit resulted, and the case may be appealed all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court.[bold added]

A California 7-year-old was banned from drawing pictures at school and forced to sit out recess for two weeks for adding “any life” below Black Lives Matter on a picture she drew and gave to a Black friend, punishments that led to a federal lawsuit.

At the core of the case, which could see its way to the Supreme Court, is a simple question: Do first graders have First Amendment rights? ...

What happened at Viejo Elementary School three years ago is undisputed. The student, identified as B.B., drew the picture, which also included four colored-in ovals representing herself and three friends, after a lesson on Martin Luther King, Jr., and gave it to her friend, M.C., who took it home, where her mother saw it.

The mother emailed the school, saying she wouldn’t “tolerate any more messages given to M.C. at school because of her skin color” and that she ‘trust(ed)’ the school would address the issue,” according to court records.

The principal confronted B.B. and told her the drawing was “inappropriate” and “racist” and that she couldn’t draw at school anymore and had to apologize to her friend. When she returned to class, her teachers told her she was not allowed to play at recess for two weeks.

A year after the incident, B.B.’s mother learned of her punishments and later sued the school district and administrators, claiming her daughter’s First Amendment rights were violated. She lost in the district court.

[Defense attorney Caleb] Trotter said he believes the judge erred in the fact that the drawing was not disruptive and then relied on a New York Times article, which was not part of the case record, to deem the “any life” part of the drawing as offensive, associating it with the “all lives matter” controversy.

“Testimony in this case clearly shows neither student knew any of what this meant,” Trotter said. “The school created this situation by introducing these adult topics.”

The legal issue at hand is whether then-7-year-old "B.B." has any free-speech rights, and the District Court ruled against her (really, her parents, who had sued the school district for suspending her). But the school district, IMHO, should never have introduced the Black Lives matter/All Lives matter dispute into a second-grade class, then punished a student for her misunderstanding of the subtleties.

According to the people who are eager to find offensiveness under every rock, "any life" is an allusion to "all lives matter", which reveals the racism of the writer or speaker. For the school district to a) buy into this interpretation and b) punish the 7-year-old for her bad thinking is a gross overstep of in loco parentis. For your humble blogger the removal of identity-politics ideology from public education, especially elementary schools, can't come too soon.

Helen at 101

Helen holds the newest twig on her family
tree, Hanzo, born June 3rd.

One year ago we gathered in Hawaii to celebrate Helen's 100th birthday.

This year, with most of the attendees traveling, we conferenced on Zoom. Everyone took turns reminiscing about favorite memories of Helen.

When talking with the nonagenarians and centenarians in my family, I've found that they are especially pleased when we mention moments that everyone, maybe even they, had forgotten. These moments are concrete evidence that they will be remembered after they're gone, proof that their lives had meaning.

May I be so lucky.

The Education Bureaucracy's Priorities Aren't Yours

Mercury News graphic: Bay Area students can book an
SAT reservation at least an hour's drive away in the spring.
Many students won't know where they're admitted,
much less if they have financial aid, until they graduate.

Now that some top colleges are requiring standardized admissions tests, there's a shortage of test sites, as we noted four months ago:

Fewer than half of the schools that served as testing centers before the pandemic have returned

Since many California educators subscribe to the ideology that testing is racist and inequitable, that ideology is probably a factor in their dragging their feet on resuming "School Day" testing, where the test is held at the students' school on a weekday. Some test-takers have to travel out-of-town on weekends in order to sit for the exam, which, of course, adds to the stress and inequity for students who can't afford to do so.

Some high-achieving but underprivileged students want to better their lives by going to and winning scholarships at out-of-state colleges, but educators won't support testing because they think they know what's better for the students than the students themselves.

With total education expenditures of $109 billion (nearly $24,000 per pupil), Californians might suppose the money could be found to support some of our best and brightest students for one day, but the educators have other priorities, like teaching the racist history of the United States or pushing gender transitioning on impressionable children. Meanwhile, parents must spend hours trying to reserve a seat at testing sites. [bold added]

But as elite schools like Stanford, Caltech, Harvard and Yale reverse their test-optional policies, Bay Area students attempting to take the SAT before college applications are due this winter might have to travel several hours or even out of state to nab a coveted spot — an especially challenging situation for lower-income students.

A recent search by a reporter of SAT testing centers through the College Board found disheartening results. Seats for the August, October and November testing dates were fully booked within 100 miles of San Jose and San Francisco, while just a handful of seats remained for the December and March exams — most of which were in locations several hours away, in cities like Sacramento, Sonora and Folsom.

...The College Board blamed the lack of availability on host schools unwilling to staff and run weekend test centers, but others pointed to low pay for proctors and schools ditching the testing requirement

To be fair,

Some Bay Area districts — including Dublin Unified and San Jose Unified — participate in “SAT School Day,” a designated day where high school juniors and seniors can take the test during class time. Some districts even offer it at no-cost.

But the College Board said most California schools do not participate in the program, which accounts for the majority of the tests administered nationwide.

It's fair to say that the majority of California schools exist to serve their administrators and teachers' unions, not their students.

J.D. Vance

(Senate.gov photo)

Earlier today Donald Trump announced John David ("J.D.") Vance as his running mate. Your humble blogger, who doesn't pay much attention to who's who in national politics, will start learning about J.D. Vance by tackling his 2016 best-selling memoir, Hillbilly Elegy.

If elected, J.D. Vance, who will turn 40 on August 2nd, will be the third youngest vice president in American history behind John Breckinridge (37) and Richard Nixon (40), who assumed office in 1857 and 1960, respectively.

Here are the WSJ's "Five Things to Know About J.D. Vance."

1. He gained prominence as a bestselling author. “Hillbilly Elegy,” a rumination on the problems facing his hometown and growing up in working-class America, became a commercial smash, and later was a Ron Howard-directed film. The memoir helped Vance pitch himself to voters as he began to rise in politics.

2. He used to be a critic of Trump. Vance in 2016 said Trump could be “America’s Hitler.” But since then, the senator has morphed into a strong ally of Trump. He has echoed Trump’s false claims that the 2020 election was rigged.

3. He was in the Marine Corps. Vance joined the Marines after high school, and he has said that the experience gave him a distaste for unnecessary foreign entanglements. In the Senate, Vance has helped lead the opposition to foreign aid for Ukraine. Trump, for his part, wasn’t as aggressive as Vance on the issue.

4. He has only been in Congress for two years. Vance, 39 years old, was elected to the Senate in 2022. He defeated Tim Ryan, a Democrat and longtime Ohio representative, for the seat. Trump endorsed Vance in that election, helping him win during a crowded election cycle.

5. He was also a venture capitalist and knows wealthy donors. Before coming to Congress, Vance graduated from the Ohio State University and Yale Law School, and was a principal at venture capitalist Peter Thiel’s firm in 2016 and 2017. Thiel spent millions on Vance’s Senate run. Those relationships have helped him hold his own among influential political donors.

Given Donald Trump's age (78), there is a distinct probability that J.D. Vance could become President in the next four years. Of course, the same thing may be said about Kamala Harris, 58, given the infirmities of President Biden, 81.

Reflection and Gratitude

Austin Rios

Letter from Marc Andrus, Bishop of the Episcopal Diocese of California, and his successor, Austin Rios:

Dear beloved friends in Christ,

While it is unclear exactly what happened at the campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, we are relieved that former President Trump is reported to be safe. However, we are deeply saddened to learn that a member of the audience was killed. As more information emerges, we decry all violence that threatens human life, and certainly the lives of those who put themselves forward in our democratic, political processes. These processes must be safe, and the people who run for election, and those who surround them with their support, must be able to do so without fear. Please join me in praying for the soul of the life that was lost, former President Trump, and our country.

Join us in praying:
Eternal God, in whose perfect kingdom no sword is drawn but the sword of righteousness, no strength known but the strength of love: So mightily spread abroad your Spirit, that all peoples may be gathered under the banner of the Prince of Peace, as children of one Father; to whom be dominion and glory, now and for ever. Amen.

As I've been observing for 12 years, the political leanings of Episcopal priests and bishops are overwhelmingly aligned with the Progressive wing of the Democratic Party.

However, never once have I heard any member of the clergy advocate violence to further political goals. On this day of reflection and gratitude, let us continue to pray for peace and see the humanity in each other.

America Dodged a Bullet

Bloodied but unbowed (AP photo)

Here's what we know at 10 PM Eastern Daylight Time, according to the WSJ:

A suspected shooter fired multiple times toward the stage in Butler, Pa., where former President Donald Trump was holding a campaign rally Saturday, according to the U.S. Secret Service. The shooting occurred at approximately 6:15 p.m. Here’s what we know so far:

Secret Service personnel “neutralized” the suspected shooter, who is now dead, according to Anthony Guglielmi, chief of communications for the bureau.

The shooter was firing from an elevated position outside the rally venue. Witnesses said he was on a roof.

One spectator was killed and two others were critically injured in the incident, which is under investigation as an attempted assassination.

Trump has said on social media that he was shot in the upper right ear.

He was rushed to a medical facility for evaluation; his campaign said he was fine.

An “AR-style rifle” was recovered at the scene, law enforcement officials said.

President Biden was briefed on the shooting and was “grateful to hear” that Trump is safe.

The shots rang out about 10 minutes into Trump’s speech at a fairground 35 miles north of Pittsburgh. Secret Service members jumped to the stage and surrounded Trump, leading him away. Photos and video showed blood on Trump’s ear and face.

Thousands of people attended the rally, which came just two days before the Republican National Convention begins in Milwaukee, where Trump will formally become the party’s nominee.

As a former president, Trump continues to receive Secret Service protection. As a result, his rallies involve intense security protocols, with attendees being restricted to carrying only small bags and having to pass through metal detectors when they arrive.

Tragic as the deaths and injuries are, the outcome could have been much worse. Had the gunman's aim not been off by an inch, or had former President Trump not turned his head at the last second, the assassination of Donald Trump might well have triggered a real civil war.

Such a "war" would perhaps be not as violent as the 19th-century version but one that could have resulted in open defiance by individuals, even entire States, of a Federal Government against which grievances have been building for at least a decade.

Do you think January 6 was an insurrection? Despite the rhetoric, that wasn't one, and if we're lucky we won't find out what a real one looks like.

It's Not Your Money, Peggy

(WSJ graphic)

Peggy Noonan, former speechwriter for Ronald Reagan, encourages Democrats to "embrace the chaos." [bold added]

The romantic route is to take personal responsibility and push the president to step aside. What follows is the Hail Mary pass: Say a prayer, throw the long ball and see who catches it. Devise a process—mini-primaries, open convention, figure it out—that lets the people of the party decide. Devise a formula whereby delegates can choose from five or six candidates. But open this thing up, anoint no one.

Elected officials, operatives and donors can’t in some grand cabal choose Ms. Harris as the directed heir. The country won’t respect it. Many in the party will resent it. They think she’ll lose. In four years she has, according to consistent polling, left most of the nation unimpressed. The Democratic establishment, such as it is, lost credibility by previously insisting on Mr. Biden when they could see he was impaired, and by blocking primary challenges. They can’t block all challengers again.

The vice president is never just “given” the presidency when he or she runs. They have always had to fight for it.

“It’s Kamala or chaos.” Then take chaos: Have the fight you fear. “We’ll have an intraparty war.” Then have it. “But Jeffrey Katzenberg says—” Whatever he says, do the opposite.

Ms. Harris deserves to be in the pool of candidates. Beyond that she can fight like everyone else.

The romantics are right and are seeing the situation clearly. They aren’t innocent: They understand the chaos that will ensue. But they know what U.S. forces in Afghanistan and Iraq used to say: “Embrace the suck.” Open this up, take a chance. You may electrify America.

Ms. Noonan harks back to 1948, when the Democratic Party saw two major factions, the Progressives and the Southern segregationists, leave the tent. Against all odds, "give 'em hell" Harry Truman revived his campaign and won the election. She urges Democrats, who face risky decisions to "go for broke."

But Democrats should be Democrats again. When everything in your world is about to change, reach back to your old, best self.

Admit the chaos, own it, open this thing up, go for broke.

Democratic politicans and commentators often write op-eds about what struggling Republicans should do, and Republicans routinely ignore such advice. Now that the situation is reversed, Democrats will probably do likewise.