Sunday, November 10, 2024

The Episcopal Church: plus ça change

Bishop Austin Rios
It's no secret that the vast majority of Episcopalians, both clergy and laity, are politically liberal; in various gatherings around the Bay Area I have never met an Episcopalian who will admit to conservative or Republican leanings, although, to be fair, lay people rarely initiate political discussions.

Austin Rios, who was installed as our Bishop three months ago, has words of reconciliation (complete message after the break) after first stating his own disappointment in the election's outcome: [bold added]
As a long-term supporter of immigrant rights and the former director of an international refugee center, I do not believe mass deportations, promised by the Trump campaign, will make America greater or stronger.

As a former resident of small towns in Texas, Wisconsin, and North Carolina, I have seen how misinformation can easily manipulate the views and feelings in more insular communities.

And I’ve also seen how small communities can sometimes show-up for their neighbors who are in crisis more consistently than those who call big cities their homes.

There is no denying the cognitive dissonance that arises from many Americans preferring an older white male felon to a younger multiracial female prosecutor.
I was uncertain when Bishop Rios was elected, but now it's clear: the Diocese will be led by another social justice warrior for at least a decade. The giveaway is in the last sentence, where the Bishop assigns virtue or vice based on a candidate's sexual and racial identity. I'm disappointed, but as a believer in democracy, I accept the will of my fellow Episcopalians!

BTW, there's a decent chance that all his convictions will be overturned on appeal, and all charges will be dropped in other cases. Will President-elect Trump still be a "convicted felon"?



Saturday, November 09, 2024

Costco: the Good Times are Back

Next to the $14.99/lb ribeye were steaks going for $59.99. A second look revealed that the price was $59.99 per pound. It was wagyu beef, which we had seen in Japan decades ago for $100 per pound, so the Costco price was a relative bargain.

In past years we have gawked at the occasional Costco offerings of $550 hams and $2,150 cognac. Of course, we never pulled the trigger, nor did we do so on the wagyu steaks with the cheapest package going for $240.

Nevertheless, the marketing and buying geniuses at Costco would never have displayed the luxury ribeyes unless there was a good chance they would be bought. The good times are back.

Friday, November 08, 2024

The Executive Function Coach

(Illustration by Kilbride/WSJ)
Here's another child-raising specialty that didn't exist when our kids were growing up. Demand is exploding for the Executive Function coach.
Executive function skills fall under three big headings: working, or short-term, memory; inhibitory control, which involves putting urges and impulses on hold; and cognitive flexibility, the ability to plan, reason, solve problems and manage multiple tasks. In practical terms, EF might coaches show students how to break down assignments and projects into bite-sized pieces and estimate the time each will take; establish a daily schedule, with time for study, exercise, socializing and sleep; and develop a plan to avoid getting distracted by technology and social media.

Psychologists in schools and private practice report seeing a flood of requests from parents for executive function help for their kids, and experienced EF coaches are struggling to meet demand...

The rise in demand for student EF coaches coincides with a rise in ADHD diagnoses and mental health problems in young people. Technology is fragmenting kids’ attention, and student life has become far more demanding. Juggling school, sports, extracurriculars, volunteering and college admissions requires careful time management.

“The number of choices available to a young person has increased so substantially,” says Grant Leibersberger, founder and principal of Boston-based Focus Collegiate, which offers EF coaching to kids with learning differences who are going to traditional colleges. “Their brains aren’t wired for all these choices so early on.”
Your humble blogger has observed young adults who have not been able to deal with electronic distractions. We see them on the road every day and give them a wide berth.

Executive Function training isn't just for kids.

Thursday, November 07, 2024

Peggy Noonan's Take

(WSJ graphic)
Former Reagan and GHW Bush speechwriter Peggy Noonan could not bring herself to support Donald Trump. However, her personal feelings about the President-elect do not prevent her from performing an insightful analysis of Tuesday's results:
It was a triumph for the Republican Party—a sweep, a rout—and a disaster for the Democrats. Much has been written about the demographic facts but when a single candidate increases his totals in almost every group but one, white women, something big happened. Donald Trump will likely receive a majority of the popular vote—the first Republican to do so since 2004. Republicans handily won the Senate and appear poised to take the House. This amounts to a legitimately claimed mandate.

Mr. Trump’s is the biggest political comeback since Richard Nixon, whose career flat-lined in embarrassment in 1962, after a failed gubernatorial race and stumbling news conference—“You won’t have Nixon to kick around anymore”—only to roar back to the presidency in 1968. It isn’t enough said that Mr. Trump did this while enduring a shooting, a second, thwarted assassination attempt, and credible intelligence reports that Iran was trying to kill him. He went into all his rallies knowing that. He showed a lot of guts. Mass media didn’t dwell on this, but regular people did.

As for Kamala Harris, Mr. Trump in 2020 lost the Catholic vote. This year he carried it with a healthy 56%. That’ll teach her to blow off the Al Smith dinner.

What did it all mean? The people did what they wished. They revolted. They looked at the past four years of Washington and said no. They said “Goodbye to all that,” to the years 2020-24—to the pandemic, to the pain and damage of that era, which affected every part of our lives. That is the real turning of the page I think, from a time they hated that made them view their government as bullying and not that bright. In terms of issues it was illegal immigration, inflation and a rejection of the deterioration all around them—of drugstores locking up the shampoo and the beleaguered Walgreens employee late with the key to the cabinet and in a bad mood because he’s afraid of thieves and crazy people and it’s wearing him down. It was the woke regime, which people have come to experience as an invading force in their lives. It was Afghanistan, and other wars, and the sense Washington isn’t getting foreign policy right and perhaps barely thinking about it. They just seem to be staggering through each day. The country’s been waiting for years to hear from its leaders: What are America’s interests?

In September, pondering the race, I wrote: “This will be a path election, not a person election.” Once we chose a shining John F. Kennedy, who would choose the path. You chose dazzling Ronald Reagan, and he’d cut a path through the forest. This year I felt people would be choosing a path, not a person. “And I’m not sure they want to go down the Blue Path any deeper than they already have.”

I think that’s what happened. Tens of millions of people who didn’t like Donald Trump voted for the path he promised.

America, after its long journey through the 2010s and ’20s, is becoming more conservative again.
Lest her readers think she has changed her mind about the man, she adds:
As for me, I don’t like the SOB, I think him a bad man who’ll cause and bungle crises almost from day one, but he’ll be the American president, and we all deserve grace. I will pray for him, support what I think constructive and oppose what I think destructive, call it straight as I can and take whatever follows.
Such language, Peggy, what would the Gipper say?

Wednesday, November 06, 2024

Post-Election Rally

November 6, 2024: the "fifth-best one-day showing ever"
The stock market rocketed higher over Donald Trump's clear-cut victory last night. [bold added]
Wall Street has rarely been more excited by an election.

U.S. stocks’ capitalization rose by $1.62 trillion on Wednesday, their fifth-best one-day showing ever, following Donald Trump’s decisive election victory. The surge highlights the opportunity that investors, bankers and others in finance are hoping to embrace over four years of tax cuts, deregulation and economic expansion.
While all sectors benefited, investors were particularly enthusiastic about the possibility of a lenient antitrust regime and a less stringent regulatory environment:
Dealmakers expect mergers and acquisitions to come roaring back, with the installation of business-friendly regulators replacing those backed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.), a noted dealmaking foe. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were among the strongest performers on Wednesday; those firms are among the most deal-oriented....

Among the biggest beneficiaries of a Trump administration are U.S. banks, a group that has been under regulatory scrutiny that is likely to ease in the next four years.

Bank stocks surged Wednesday in a wager that a strong economy, increased dealmaking and lighter regulation will spur higher profits. Some of the firms that have been under the most pressure from their overseers during the Biden administration surged. Wells Fargo jumped 13% to a new high. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley both rose more than 10%.
IMHO, the stock market is moving too fast. Staffing key positions will not happen immediately, plus senior and mid-level positions are filled with bureaucrats who not only do not support but actively resist Mr. Trump's policies, as we saw during his first term. I won't be a buyer for at least several weeks.

Tuesday, November 05, 2024

Voting in Person on Tuesday

2020 election: plenty of space
Foster City tore down its Recreational Center in the month before today's election. The timing was unfortunate, in that the spacious Rec Center was Foster City's sole in-person voting location. (The City began planning the $66 million construction project in 2017.)

Signs directed us to a room in City Hall, next to the fire station. The room was packed with voting booths; about half were occupied.

A volunteer asked me to "register"--she quickly corrected the phrase to "check in"--and I filled out a form with my name, residential address, and date of birth.

Another lady checked the information against her computer (no identification was requested), and directed me to an empty station.

I made my selections on the touchscreen, printed out the ballot, and dropped it into the box. The whole process took half an hour.

To be perfectly honest, I wouldn't have minded taking another minute to show a picture ID, but California is unlikely to reinstate that requirement in my lifetime.

Monday, November 04, 2024

I'll Have Some News With Those Jokes

Tyrus gesticulates
On the eve of an election which is again the-most-important-election-in-my-lifetime I'm tuning out all the reporting on the polls. Predictions range from a late break toward Harris to a clear-cut Trump victory. The most common poll result seems to be a statistical tie.

This week I've been watching Gutfield, Fox's late-night humor show. Tonight there was this nugget.

George "Tyrus" Murdoch: You are from the mean streets of Northern California.

Greg Gutfield: San Mateo.

Tyrus: You didn't play.

Gutfield: I cut my teeth at the Hillsdale Mall.

Tonight I learned that Greg Gutfield, like Tom Brady, Kris Kristofferson, and Merv Griffin, is another San Mateo kid who moved away and hit it big.

It's a pleasant surprise when you go to be entertained and pick up some knowledge in the process.

Sunday, November 03, 2024

Happy Birthday, Again

On my birthday I knocked over the dietary guardrails and ate a week's supply of beef, dairy (clam chowder and ice cream), and sugar.

The penalty will be short-term only (I hope), but the memory of this outing with the family will linger for months.

When I was a child, I liked opening presents and being the center of attention. After I grew up, birthdays came and went for 40 years with little recognition. Now I'm beginning to appreciate them more...

Saturday, November 02, 2024

Warren Buffett Thinks Taxes are Going Up, and So Should You

The Berkshire Hathaway shareholders' meeting in Omaha last May.
Continuing its liquidation of Apple stock, Berkshire Hathaway sold a lot more in the third quarter: [bold added]
The Omaha, Neb., company ended September with $69.9 billion of the iPhone maker’s shares, according to a quarterly report released Saturday. That means Berkshire sold about 25% of the 400 million Apple shares it brought into the third quarter. Berkshire held slightly more than 900 million Apple shares at the end of last year.

Even after the sales, Apple was Berkshire’s largest stockholding at the end of September. Apple has been a major bet for Berkshire, and one that paid off big time as tech-hungry investors drove the stock ever higher in recent years.

This year, Berkshire has slashed the position, though Buffett has continued to praise the company. He told an arena of shareholders at Berkshire’s annual meeting in May that Apple was “an even better business” than American Express and Coca-Cola, two other big holdings, and hinted that tax considerations might have played a role in the decision to sell some shares.

Apple shares are up 16% this year and trading near records.
Market commentators generally have explained Berkshire's actions to be the result of portfolio-risk reduction (overconcentration in one stock) and the perceived over-valuation of Apple stock according to several metrics. However, the impact of higher corporate income tax rates after 2025 should not be underestimated in Warren Buffett's decision-making. Higher tax rates have a direct, immediate negative impact on cash flow, while portfolio diversification increases portfolio returns probabilistically but are not guaranteed.

Unless the Republicans make a clean sweep of the Presidency and Congress, tax rates are likely to go up. And even if the Republicans do win, the Grand Old Party still has traditionalists who are fiscally conservative. Higher-income taxpayers would be foolish not to take into consideration the likelihood of higher tax rates after 2025, and some are taking action now.
Among the moves investors might want to make if they are convinced taxes are headed higher is to sell stocks. Selling now would lock in capital gains at the current 20% top rate.

Kamala Harris proposes a new top capital-gains rate of 28% for high earners. She is also proposing to increase the investment income surtax. Although Donald Trump has campaigned on extending the 2017 law, taxpayers are also worried taxes could move higher if he wins, because of the nation’s finances and economy...

Potential changes to capital-gains taxes, more likely with a Democratic sweep, are prompting some taxpayers to sell stock or shares in a business. In addition to the higher capital-gains rate for those earning $1 million or more, Harris proposes increasing the 3.8% investment income surtax to 5% for taxpayers with income above $400,000.
Your humble taxpaying blogger may make some income-accelerating moves, such as converting traditional IRA moneys to a Roth IRA before year-end, but will wait till next year to take action after the election smoke clears.

Friday, November 01, 2024

Crouching Lion

I always had a hard time envisioning the lion (Peebles/SFGate)
My father liked to load the kids in the family car and "drive around the island" on weekends. We would head to the North Shore and return via the single-lane highway on the Windward (eastern) side.

The 2-3 hour trip seemed interminable to this Island kid, and the Crouching Lion rock formation signalled that we were 30 minutes from Kaneohe, which was 30 minutes from central Honolulu.

60 years later I no longer rush through the route, choosing to stop and savor the moment:
Because we don't know when we will die,
we get to think of life as an inexhaustible well.
Yet everything happens only
a certain number of times,
and a very small number really.
How many more times will you remember a certain afternoon of your childhood,
some afternoon that's so deeply a part of your being that you can't even conceive
of your life without it.
Perhaps four or five times more, perhaps not even that.
How many more times will you watch the full moon rise?
Perhaps twenty. And yet it all seems limitless.
--Paul Bowles, The Sheltering Sky
(Krause/SFGate photo)
Now there's another reason to go to the Windward side. The Crouching Lion Restaurant has re-opened.
Perched above the ocean, the restaurant remains one of the few dining establishments available in the windward neighborhood. It has changed hands throughout the years because of financial challenges. Eventually, it closed down. It was a daunting prospect for potential investors because of its remote location. It also required a significant amount of investment to restore.

But it was a challenge that new owner Eddie Kim was willing to take on, and he purchased the property in 2022 for $3.7 million. “I wanted to try something new,” he says. “After years of being an educator, it was time for a new adventure.” The restaurant officially reopened this past May. While Kim is new to the restaurant business, his goals are simple: “I wanted to create a restaurant where I would want to eat at and bring family and friends.”
For decades I've noticed the cars parked outside but never stopped. It's time I did.

Thursday, October 31, 2024

Pod Living in SF's Future

$700 buys you the top or bottom
If I were single and in my 20's, starting a job in San Francisco, and didn't care about having a social life, I would definitely consider renting a sleeping pod:
Brownstone’s model is different in that it’s renting out pods that are much smaller in size than a traditional bedroom and more akin to Japan’s capsule hotels, which keeps prices lower. It’s also not trying to program social gatherings for residents, as previous startups have sought to do.
The reported rent of $700 per month is a fraction of the cost of a studio apartment. Even if one can afford to pay much more for housing, being a pod person may appeal to finance or engineering types who work long hours in the office and just need a place to crash and wash up. (This recalls the 2016 case of the Google engineer who claimed he was able to build his savings by $6,000 per month by living in a truck.)

Your humble blogger claims to have no expertise in San Francisco commercial real estate, but pod living appears to be one solution to 1) high housing costs and 2) a way to attract some young highly paid professionals back to the City and rejuvenate its night life.

Converting excess office buildings to pod housing is much less costly than conversion to standard apartments and condos. The only holdup seems to be, unsurprisingly, San Francisco's disorganized, inefficient regulatory agencies:
But last year, city officials ruled that the pods violated building codes because Brownstone hadn’t gotten approval for the residential conversion and the building was a safety hazard, in part because the front door required a key to open from the inside.

James Stallworth, CEO of Brownstone Shared Housing, said the city’s planning department was unresponsive for around nine months as the company sought to bring the project up to code. He said, ultimately, only a few minor changes were implemented: A stove was installed in the communal kitchen, permits were approved for a shower that was installed and the front door access was remedied.

Dan Sider, the planning department's chief of staff, said claims that the department was unresponsive were “utter nonsense” and said Stallworth only filed an application in July after “months of noncooperation.”

Thirteen residents were allowed to continue living in the building during that time, but Stallworth said the city told Brownstone to stop accepting new residents. It’s now advertising the pods for rent again.

Wednesday, October 30, 2024

Dodgers Win World Series

The Los Angeles Dodgers won the 2024 World Series by defeating the New York Yankees in Game 5:
The Los Angeles Dodgers won their second World Series championship in five seasons, overcoming a five-run deficit with the help of three Yankees defensive miscues and rallying on sacrifice flies from Gavin Lux and Mookie Betts in the eighth inning to beat New York 7-6 in Game 5 on Wednesday night
Personal note; A typical "homer," your humble blogger takes an interest in Major League Baseball only when the San Francisco Giants have a contending team.

But this is one World Series that any boomer sports fan had to watch. We remember when baseball was head and shoulders above the NFL and NBA, and the '50's and '60's Yankees and Dodgers had some of the most famous players ever to play the sport. In 2024 the Yankees and the Dodgers had the most glamor and the fattest payrolls--along with their storied histories--and this World Series would demonstrate whether baseball still deserved a place at the top of the sports pyramid.
This is the World Series that Major League Baseball has been dreaming about.

The New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers are the most prestigious and popular franchises in the sport, loaded with enough star power to light up a small city. Shohei Ohtani is a once-in-a-century talent, now playing on the game’s biggest stage for the first time. Network executives are betting that it will be the most-watched Fall Classic in years.

“Baseball purists probably love it. I know MLB probably loves it. Fox definitely loves it,” Yankees pitcher Carlos Rodón said ahead of Friday’s Game 1. “There’s definitely some glamor to it.”

...There are five different players in this World Series—Ohtani, Judge, Freeman, Betts and Yankees slugger Giancarlo Stanton—who have won an MVP award, and that doesn’t even count injured Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw. Assuming they all appear in a game, it will be an all-time record.

One of those players has been named MVP in six of the past seven seasons, a streak that is going to continue with Ohtani and Judge, the presumed MVPs for 2024. It will make this the first World Series since 2012 and just the second since 1988 to feature both MVPs from that season.
The business assessments have to wait on the viewership ratings and other financial analytics, but from this fan's standpoint the 2024 World Series had many interesting and suspenseful moments that showcased why baseball is unique and fascinating.

Tuesday, October 29, 2024

A Good Sign

It's the first time this has happened in this boomer's life; I cracked open an egg with a double yolk.
Eggs with two yolks are fairly rare: statistically speaking, you might find them in just 1 of every 1,000 eggs. These eggs typically come from two types of hens: younger hens whose bodies are still just learning how to lay, and older birds who are experiencing the natural course of reproductive changes as they age.

In fact, many egg anomalies, such as blood spots, follow the same pattern. Like humans, hens' bodies tend to go through their most significant changes during "adolescence" and late into adulthood, so it's during these two periods of time in a flock's life that we tend to see a higher rate of unique and irregular eggs.
In cultures as different as Islam and China's, a double-yolked egg is a sign of good luck. It would be pleasing and surprising if there's some truth to that superstition.

Monday, October 28, 2024

Haleakala Ride

Looking down at the clouds from the summit (Volcano tours)
Another activity that I enjoyed in my younger days may be outlawed.
A popular Hawaii tourist activity, Maui downhill bicycle tours offer visitors an opportunity to see stunning landscapes on a ride down the winding roads of Haleakala with little physical exertion.

The activity, however, comes with some risk, as bicyclists share the road with vehicles, whose drivers sometimes get impatient, and downhill speeds may cause a rider to lose control.

Throughout its history, accidents have happened. Some have died. Earlier this month, Jeffrey Hins, a 68-year-old visitor from Arizona, was killed while biking down Haleakala as part of a group. The Maui Police Department said Hins crossed the yellow double-solid lane into the oncoming lane and crashed into a vehicle.

A new law addressing the safety of commercial guided and unguided bike tours, Ordinance 5439, just went into effect last year to alleviate concerns about safety and disruption to local traffic.,,“There’s been some in the community who want an outright ban on this type of industry operating on the road,” Mike Molina told KHON-TV. Molina, a former Maui County councilmember, championed the new law...

Haleakala downhill bicycle tours started in 1983. Over the next 20 years, the industry flourished, as it was a way for visitors to see Haleakala National Park at sunrise, then do a fun experiential activity. By 2007, about 90,000 visitors participated in bike tours annually, and revenues were estimated at $11 million...

Last year was the first time in 15 years that a new law was enacted to regulate the industry. Ordinance 5439 limits commercial tours to 10 riders, requires a minimum age of 15 and restricts guided and unguided tours to between Mile Marker 3 and Mile Marker 9.5 on Haleakala Crater Road.

Only a handful of companies continue to operate the downhill bike tours today and have altered their itineraries to accommodate the changes.

Depending on the operator, guided tours begin with a van ride up Haleakala Volcano to 10,000 feet to watch the sunrise inside Haleakala National Park. Then, the van brings the group down to around 6,500 feet, where cyclists launch after a safety briefing. Bicyclists then descend on a winding road of 29 switchbacks, while the van follows behind.

Ordinance 5439 cut some mileage from the tours by prohibiting specific areas of road and excluding the town of Kula. Operators have improvised by adding a second bike loop of the switchbacks, a van ride through Kula or lunch stop in Makawao, before continuing on the bikes to ride down to Haiku or Paia, where the tour ends.
I've done the summit downhill a number of times, the most recent occasion being a corporate retreat in the mid-1990's. We watched the sun rise over the crater, then cruised to Paia without stopping. It was early morning, traffic was light, and this weekend bicyclist used the brakes often. However, it is easy to see how increased auto traffic, combined with unskilled bicycle tourists, made serious accidents inevitable. Like many things in life, I'm glad I got to do the Haleakala ride before it got regulated away.

Sunday, October 27, 2024

Kamala Harris Goes to Church

(Atlanta Journal-Constitution photo)
Kamala Harris has had trouble attracting Christian, particularly Catholic, voters due to her pro-abortion stance, so she began the day at a Black church in Philadelphia:
Vice President Kamala Harris started her Sunday at services at the Church of Christian Compassion in West Philadelphia. She told the largely Black congregation that the “next nine days will test us—they will demand everything we’ve got.”

“In this moment, we do face a real question: What kind of country do we want to live in? A country of chaos, fear and hate, or a country of freedom, justice, and compassion?” Harris asked, adding, “The great thing about living in a democracy is we, the people, have the choice to answer that question.” Harris is spending the day in the Philadelphia area as polls show a tight race in Pennsylvania, the nation’s largest battleground state.
Vice President Harris is also trying to counter the anti-Christian impression of her "you guys are at the wrong rally" riposte when hecklers shouted "Jesus is Lord" and "Christ is King." (Her campaign asserts that she was responding to cries of "Lies! Lies! Lies!").

Despite her warm reception by the congregation, I doubt her appearance changed anyone's mind.