Wednesday, October 18, 2017

Not for the Usual Reason

Two-deck Lucky Lucky payoff chart
When I turned 21, I picked up a copy of Beat the Dealer, the landmark 1966 book that showed that it was possible to win at blackjack, and headed for the Nevada casinos.

After several years of mixed results, it became clear that I didn't have what it took to win consistently, namely, a big-enough stake to ride through losing streaks and the willingness to put in hundreds of hours memorizing tables and practicing counting cards (tracking totals that affect betting primarily but can also influence play).

Gambling infrequently, I now go to have fun (yes, really) with money that I can psychologically lose with no regrets. Employing the simple Basic Strategy, which in the long run slightly disfavors the player but is not mentally taxing, I can play for a long time with a stake of, say, $500 in a $10-minimum game.

At Starbucks, Thunder Valley food court.
However, I'm a sucker for high-payoff, low-probability side bets that definitely favor the house--see above reference to fun--and so it was that I found myself betting $5 on the Lucky Lucky side bet on a $25-minimum table at Thunder Valley, outside Sacramento. I expected to blow my $500 in 2 hours, tops, then retire to the Food Court and wait for the other players to finish.

A couple of minutes into the game, the dealer showed the eight of spades as his upcard, while I held the 6 and 7 of spades. I showed my hand ("Is this good?" Yes! he replied), the dealer made the announcement, the pit boss came over to confirm, and $500 was the reward for placing $5 on Lucky Lucky and hitting the suited 6-7-8.

I was done for the day and retired to the Food Court, but not for the usual reason.

Note: true odds for hitting the suited 6-7-8 with two decks are 1 in 5,691 [(104*103*102)/(24*4*2)]

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