Hard Rock Tejon

Hard Rock Tejon's estimated cost is $600 million (Wald Arch/Hard Rock/SfGate)

A new Hard Rock casino will open next month near Bakersfield:

When it opens, it will be among California’s biggest casinos...

The casino announced the early opening date of the project’s first phase, which includes 150,000-square-feet of gaming space. For context, that massive footprint would put it on par with some of the biggest casinos in Las Vegas including the MGM Grand, Bellagio, Aria and Mandalay Bay, which all hover slightly above 150,000 square feet. The Hard Rock Casino Tejon gaming floor is also set to be around 20,000 square feet bigger than the one at Caesars Palace...

Initial visitors to the casino can expect to find Vegas-style amenities on opening day. There will be more than 2,000 slot machines, more than 50 live table games (including blackjack and multiple poker games) and VIP rooms for both blackjack and baccarat. Visitors will also find Hard Rock’s signature music memorabilia strewn about the property, according to a news release.

The opening will also feature various dining choices, including the Hard Rock Cafe, Deep Cut Steaks | Seafood and YOUYU, an Asian-inspired noodle bar. In addition, there will be a food hall featuring coffee, pastries, street tacos, wood-fired Italian dishes and Southern comfort food, as well as a gift shop featuring Hard Rock merch...

The gaming and restaurant footprint is only the first phase. The project is expected to be 700,000 square feet in total, with the second phase adding a 400-room hotel with a pool and spa. A 2,800-seat event venue is also in the offing.

We drive the I-5 from the Bay Area to Southern California every 3 years or so and budget 6½ hours for the trip. Next time we'll add half a day (and a few hundred dollars) to check out the Hard Rock Tejon.

An Ephemeral, not Eternal, Question

(Image from mereinkling)

Finally, a relevant theological question:

Would Jesus Bet on the Super Bowl? [bold added]

is it a bad thing, or a morally neutral thing, to risk one’s money on a game?

Traditions rooted in the Jewish and Christian scriptures have tended to say it’s a bad thing, but the textual warnings against it are less than explicit. Some Christian moralists have claimed that gambling is wrong because it’s an attempt to get something for nothing.

...But it can’t be right that getting something for nothing is always wrong. If that were so, you would be sinning to accept an inheritance from your parents, or to sell a piece of land at a profit when you didn’t cause its increase in value. The Christian gospel itself proclaims that sinners receive what they don’t, and can’t, earn.

...A better way to think about the moral import of gambling, and by extension the ubiquity of online sports betting, is to consider what it reveals about the gambler. The Hebrew and Christian scriptures warn many times against the excessive desire for wealth.

Gambling is not one of the seven deadly sins (pride, greed, wrath, envy, lust, gluttony and sloth) but like each of the 7DS can be addictive and ruin lives. The gambler loses in the long run (unless he is a disciplined card counter, but I digress...) and is consumed by the desire for money, which is why it's considered an immoral activity.

But back to the original question: would Jesus bet on the Super Bowl?
1) According to the creeds He is more than the Son of God, He is God.
2) God is omniscient, i.e., knows everything, past, present, and future.
3) He is therefore guaranteed to win any bet on the Super Bowl, or for that matter on the outcome of any event.
4) Jesus may well need some money to complete his mission on Earth.
5) Gambling is the quickest way to obtain money (unless working for a living is part of Jesus' mission).

So, yes, in my humble opinion, Jesus would bet on the Super Bowl, but unlike the rest of us wouldn't be watching it to see whether He won.

When the Lemons Don't Line Up, Make Lemonade

I hit a $5,000 jackpot once on a Downtown Las Vegas slot machine. I didn't take a selfie, because smartphones had not yet been invented.

The casino manager gave me a check and a Form 1099. I quit playing, and that was the only time I walked away from the slots as a winner.

Brian Christopher and fan Sue Leahy (WSJ)

In the age of social media, some avid slot players are winning by losing: [bold added]

A new class of niche celebrities have turned the once-solitary experience of gambling at casino slot machines into a spectator sport with millions of viewers and fan camaraderie. Using monopods or videographers to film the action, the players spend hours talking audiences through the highs and lows of jackpots and losses...

Nongamblers, and some who have given up the pastime, also are among [Brian] Christopher’s audience of 612,000 YouTube subscribers and 707,000 Facebook followers. “They get their fix by watching someone else play,” he said.

Christopher has built his particular brand of stardom into a full-time business with 10 employees—including his husband and Senior Vice President of Operations Marco Bianchi—who pack merchandise, such as T-shirts and shot glasses, manage social-media interactions and help secure enough deals and partnerships to fund the enterprise. Christopher declined to provide his total revenue, but said he makes enough to turn a profit after paying his staff and the $300,000 in gambling losses.

Fans visit the locations where the gambler-celebrities play, and the casinos have noticed, and adapted:

Casinos long banned patrons from filming to avoid distractions and to protect the privacy of other customers. They have warmed to the idea in recent years, influencers say, and often give special permission for filming, or make promotional deals with the social-media stars.

Gambling commercials only show winners. In the 21st-century world of streaming video people watch losers....and like it.

California: Imperialists of the 21st Century

I've contributed to the Pomo Indians' welfare
at the River Rock Casino, Geyserville

There is no question that the taking of lands, the breaking of treaties, and the general treatment of Native Americans are a stain on the history of the United States. That legacy is reflected in the statistics: as of 2018 Native Americans have the highest poverty rate and lowest educational achievement of all minority groups.

Nevertheless, there are signs of hope:

Thanks to legislation such as the Indian Self-Determination and Education Assistance Act of 1975, the Tribal Self-Governance Act of 1994 and generations of advocacy, Native American communities have greater control over their own land and resources and have experienced an increase of federal recognition of their tribal governments.

Annual gaming revenues have climbed every year to $34 billion in 2018 and have provided a source of earned wealth to many tribes.

One might expect that the Progressive State of California would not only be respectful of Native American rights but also support gaming as a means to economic self-sufficiency. But one would be wrong.

the tribes must periodically negotiate renewals of casino agreements with the state, and after five years of unsuccessful talks, five small tribes filed suit in 2019 accusing the state of demanding changes in policies outside the scope of the 1988 law, the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act.

Judge Ishii

California attempted to make casino renewals contingent on the tribes' bowing to California law on social, environmental, and liability matters. U.S. District Judge Anthony Ishii, a Clinton appointee, said that [bold added]

state negotiators had exceeded the scope of the law by demanding tribal enforcement of state court orders for child support and spousal support in divorce cases.

He said state negotiators may have also crossed the law’s boundaries by seeking tribal compliance with a wide range of California laws — on wages, discrimination, environmental review of land use and construction projects, and suits for injuries on tribal property...

Ishii said the federal law on tribal gambling contracts allows negotiations only on issues related to gambling on the reservations and not on other matters subject to tribal self-government.

Progressives claim that white patriarchal society foisted its alien values upon indigenous peoples, but give Progressives absolute power, which is what they enjoy in California, and they have shown themselves to be as disrespectful of tribal sovereignty as the imperialists of the 19th century.

Happy New Year, But Resolutions Start Tomorrow

New Year's Day is a holiday, and we're on holiday, too, so resolutions start tomorrow.

In Rocklin we ordered brunch at the Window Box cafe. The corned beef hash--sliced, not ground--was a coruscation of color.

Reluctant to disturb its symmetry, I eventually relented. It tasted as good as it looked.

The casino Food Court was crowded on New Year's Day.

A family member wanted to try his luck at the nearby casino. It was a New Year, but for him it was the same old result.

I spent most of the afternoon at the food court. The WiFi was intermittent, but I was able to do some work that didn't require an Internet connection. (Often without the Internet I find myself to be more productive, but that's just me.)

Tomorrow I'll get serious. We'll see how long that lasts.

Not for the Usual Reason

Two-deck Lucky Lucky payoff chart

When I turned 21, I picked up a copy of Beat the Dealer, the landmark 1966 book that showed that it was possible to win at blackjack, and headed for the Nevada casinos.

After several years of mixed results, it became clear that I didn't have what it took to win consistently, namely, a big-enough stake to ride through losing streaks and the willingness to put in hundreds of hours memorizing tables and practicing counting cards (tracking totals that affect betting primarily but can also influence play).

Gambling infrequently, I now go to have fun (yes, really) with money that I can psychologically lose with no regrets. Employing the simple Basic Strategy, which in the long run slightly disfavors the player but is not mentally taxing, I can play for a long time with a stake of, say, $500 in a $10-minimum game.

At Starbucks, Thunder Valley food court.

However, I'm a sucker for high-payoff, low-probability side bets that definitely favor the house--see above reference to fun--and so it was that I found myself betting $5 on the Lucky Lucky side bet on a $25-minimum table at Thunder Valley, outside Sacramento. I expected to blow my $500 in 2 hours, tops, then retire to the Food Court and wait for the other players to finish.

A couple of minutes into the game, the dealer showed the eight of spades as his upcard, while I held the 6 and 7 of spades. I showed my hand ("Is this good?" Yes! he replied), the dealer made the announcement, the pit boss came over to confirm, and $500 was the reward for placing $5 on Lucky Lucky and hitting the suited 6-7-8.

I was done for the day and retired to the Food Court, but not for the usual reason.

Note: true odds for hitting the suited 6-7-8 with two decks are 1 in 5,691 [(104*103*102)/(24*4*2)]

Cooler Brows, Lighter Wallets

The home AC is on the blink, and we were desperate to escape the 100-degree temperatures. On Saturday we rode in our comparatively efficient air-conditioned car to the Graton Casino in Rohnert Park, 50 miles north of San Francisco.The drive took two hours due to the holiday traffic, but no matter, we were comfortable.

Stepping out of the car, we were hit with a blast of heat and hurried into the casino.

Pushing on the pleasure machines

Five hours later, I was down $100, not a bad result when a casino with a regional monopoly pays off blackjacks at 6-5 instead of the standard 3-2.

One overpriced dinner in Larkspur, a much less congested trip south over the Golden Gate, and we were home by 9 p.m.

"A League-Shaking Coup"

Kevin Durant and GSW coach Steve Kerr (Chronicle photo)
Mirroring: "mutual trust, connection and understanding"

Basketball superstar Kevin Durant announced yesterday that he is joining the Golden State Warriors. NBA observers were agog at the instant creation of a super-team:

This isn’t just a signing, this is a league-shaking coup....

The Warriors have done nothing short of constructing a superteam, and they deserve full credit for the execution of their successful recruiting pitch, which reportedly included owner Joe Lacob, the team’s star players, and even a phone call from Hall of Famer Jerry West. As a result of landing Durant, Golden State’s roster now represents 25% of USA Basketball’s Olympic team and it features two MVPs, two scoring champs, four All-Stars, and four All-NBA selections (all of whom are 28 or younger). The Warriors’ fourth-best player once scored 37 points in a single quarter and their fifth-best player was named Finals MVP. Give me a break.

With all of that in mind, the best-case scenario for this experiment is a word not often spoken in the modern NBA: Dynasty.

The Warriors are not only the 2017 favorites to win the NBA title, but their odds are an unprecedented better-than-even ("the Warriors have a better chance at winning next year's title than the other 29 teams combined").

Not even Tiger Woods, who won four consecutive Grand Slam tournaments in 2000-2001, commanded such respect from the sports books. (He was even-money to win the U.S. Open in 2001.)

Disappointing Day-Trip

$12 bowl of noodles from the Boathouse.

For the third year running (see 2013 and 2014) our relative has visited Marin County during the holidays, and for the third year in a row we took her to the Graton Casino in Rohnert Park.

I looked forward to the 160-mile round trip. A nice, albeit overpriced, lunch at the casino's M.Y. Noodles restaurant, a couple of hours at the tables, and the remaining time sipping coffee and using the WiFi connection at the Marketplace food court.

Except...M.Y. Noodles closed last weekend. The disappointment was compounded when I ordered a bowl of noodle soup at the food court. The bowl cost $12 and only had a few bits of crab and no vegetables. Pathetic, but that's what happens when the casino knows that it's inconvenient to go for food elsewhere.

Graton also takes advantage of its local-monopoly position on the gaming floor. Slots were tight (no loud cheering, signaling large jackpots) and blackjacks pay 6-5, not the standard 3-2.

Our relative, though she said that she enjoyed herself, will be visiting San Jose in the first half of 2016. We'll try a casino in Central California the next time.

The Eighth Deadly Sin, Continued

The siren song of the Wheel of Fortune (Flickr image)

Excerpts from the Engineers of Addiction [bold added]:

A modern slot machine, at its core, is nothing more than a [Random Number Generator] going through millions or billions of numbers at all times. When a player hits a spin button, they are simply stopping the RNG at a particular moment. Everything beyond that — the music, the mini-games, the actual appearance of spinning reels, Rachel, Monica, and the rest of the gang keeping you company — is window dressing to keep you hitting spin.

the company commissioned a study to find out why people love the Wheel of Fortune line so much. "People said it was as much about the brand as anything...People said, ‘That brand — I used to hear it in the living room at my grandma’s house.'"

Player tracking systems revealed more than a pit boss ever could: over time, Harrah’s can create a portrait of the person’s risk profile, including how much money a player typically loses before they stop playing and what kinds of gifts to give them to keep them on the gaming floor.

The small slots customer, over a lifetime of spending, is just as valuable as the high roller.

In 11 years of legalized gaming, the state [of Pennsylvania] has earned $3 billion from table games and $17 billion from slots.

The "zone" is flow through a lens darkly: hyperfocused, neurotransmitters abuzz, but directed toward a numbness with no goal in particular.

capitalism can harness the human play drive for better or worse — and that increasingly, games aren’t allegories that say something about our lives; they are our lives. As people move toward more data-driven existences where points are accumulated from health apps (the subject of Schüll’s latest research) and status is accumulated in identifiable quantities on social media, gamification becomes so total that it can sometimes mask whether what we’re doing has any inherent utility outside the game that surrounds it.

[The Hook model of tech product addiction]: a trigger turns into an action turns into a variable reward turns into a further personal investment back into the product.

This article was so interesting that your humble observer put down his iPad slot-machine game for 15 minutes in order to read it.

The Day After

Plump, tasty, and tender

Our visiting relative has both a bigger budget and love for the slots than we do. Being gracious hosts, we complied with her wish to return to Graton.

The casino was more crowded than it had been on New Year's Eve. I killed time at the bar in Martin Yan's M.Y. Noodles. The drinks and food were generally overpriced (menu here), but one tasty bargain was the chicken feet at $5.

Chicken feet (they're cleaned thoroughly and the toenails are removed) are marinated, fried, and steamed over many hours. M.Y. Noodles gets the texture right---very tender but not overcooked to the extent that the feet fall apart. The dish compared favorably with the best dim sum palaces in SF and the Peninsula.

Chicken feet dim sum in Rohnert Park? Knock me over with a feather.

New Year Lesson

Haggard diarist is coming to resemble the Buddhas of Graton

A visiting relative eagerly acceded to a gambling outing at the Graton casino, a two-hour drive north. We hadn't gamed since last April, and our war-chest was restocked.

Your humble observer doesn't particularly enjoy playing at Graton; the casino takes advantage of its local gaming monopoly by nearly usurious odds---for example, a blackjack pays 6-5 rather than the standard 3-2.

But the food's good and the free WiFi allows me to sit for hours after I lose my stake. Keep your expectations low, and you'll be much happier, a lesson I intend to carry with me into the New Year.

Lightning--the Good Kind--Strikes

Golden Wok (left) is only a few steps from the Key Market (right) -- Google Street View

One of our aunt's favorite eating places is the Golden Wok, which is tucked away in an aging shopping center four miles away. While celebrating many a birthday at this inexpensive restaurant, we've often picked up a few items at the nearby Key Market. The latter is one of the few surviving family-owned supermarkets on the Peninsula, and its location in a shopping center that will undoubtedly be sold, demolished, and redeveloped doesn't bode well for the future.

Lightning---the good kind---struck tonight when a $228.4 million Powerball ticket was sold by the Key Market. The owners, Jack and Nancy Dehoff, will collect approximately $1 million.

[Update - 9/26: nail salon worker Vinh Nguyen has chosen to collect his winnings over the next 30 years (why not be optimistic over his longevity, the creditworthiness of the lottery trustee, and future tax rates?)]

Not a Myth

It's not a gambling myth: winning streaks do exist.

Using the power of the internet to round up a huge sample, the two researchers examined 565,915 bets made by 776 people on sports such as horse-racing and football. [snip]

The probability of a first bet winning was 48% and that of a follow-up winning again was 49%. After that, the streak took off. The third bet won 57% of the time. The fourth, if the third had won, won 67% of the time, the fifth, 72% of it and the sixth 75%.

The explanation:

as winners’ winning streaks increased in length they started choosing safer and safer odds, which led them to win more often, though less profitably.

This explains why your humble observer rarely goes home a winner--after a few wins he increases his bets, hoping to end with a big score. When you think you're playing with the house's money, you wind up losing it.

A lucky guy: Joe DiMaggio hit for 56 games in a row--a streak that has never been broken.
He also married Marilyn Monroe (SI photo)

That's Progress

Statuettes at M.Y. China

The previous days' rains had scrubbed the landscape, and it was a perfect morning for a drive. A family member wanted to revisit the Graton casino in Sonoma County, less than a two-hour drive from the Peninsula. Traffic was heavy through the City, but once past the Golden Gate Bridge it was smooth sailing to Rohnert Park.

At the casino we sat down to lunch at M.Y. China ("M.Y." stands for Martin Yan, the celebrity Chinese chef.) M.Y. China's decor and menu offerings are a cut above the average Chinese restaurant, as are the prices.

I lingered on the M.Y. dim sum collection ($19). The quantities were not extravagant, but the seasonings and freshness of the ingredients were excellent. The dim sum collection was the perfect lunch to nibble on while companions tried their luck at slots and blackjack.(Graton's free Wi-Fi makes it easy for casual or non-gamblers to pass the time.)

30 years ago I would have spent every available second at the tables. Now a couple of hours was more than enough, and I left Graton that evening with the same amount that I started with. That would have been a better-than-average result 30 years ago, so I suppose that's progress.

It Was Fun

My sorry bracket: if it's red, it's wrong.

Though the odds were infinitesimal (actually, 1 in 9 quintillion) against winning, the idea of receiving $1 billion for 15 minutes of "work" overwhelmed rational thinking. Last Wednesday I filled out the Quicken Loans $1 Billion bracket challenge.

The probabilities were about the same whether I devoted 15 minutes, 15 hours, or 15 days, so I expended the minimum effort by using a random-number generator and giving greater weight to the higher seeds.

I was quickly eliminated on the first day and ended up picking only 29 out of 48 games correctly (no one is still in contention--the top entry scored 44). With 4 million people doing better than I so far, there's no chance to win one of the twenty $100,000 consolation prizes.

Nevertheless, it was fun and I'd do it again next year. Maybe I just have to adjust the random numbers for strength of schedule.....

Poor, Deluded Moi

I'm going to fill out the entry for Warren Buffett and Quicken Loans' $1 Billion NCAA bracket challenge. Yes, the odds are 1 in 9 quintillion against anyone winning, that is,

If all 317 million people in the U.S. filled out a bracket at random, you could run the contest for 290 million years, and there’d still be a 99 percent chance that no one had ever won.

I'll get some enjoyment out of playing---and fantasizing--just as I will for spending $5 on a Mega Millions lottery ticket now that the jackpot is $400 million.

If someone does win the Bracket Challenge, I'll take it as proof that all is not randomness and that God does exist. Not logical, I know, but allow me to have my delusions.

Graton Resort and Casino, Rohnert Park

(Photo from California Home Design)

Everyone in the car enjoyed their first visit to the new Graton casino, and not just because three out of four brought home heavier wallets than they started out with.

Several family members are highly allergic to cigarette smoke; hay fever and asthma attacks are triggered after several hours of exposure. While Graton does permit the vice, the carpets, tablecloths, and chairs are not (yet) steeped in tobacco residue. Unlike expeditions to other nearby casinos, this trip was blessedly allergy-free.

Dining options were decent though not spectacular. The food court "marketplace" offered inexpensive choices, and four restaurants served more upscale but not outrageously priced fare. Graton doesn't bother with a buffet, probably a good thing since I would have been tempted to try it.

By far the most attractive feature is its location. Just off of Highway 101, Graton is 45 miles north of San Francisco. It took us 90 minutes to get there in normal traffic from the Peninsula and is 30 to 60 minutes closer than the nearest alternative. Closer, cleaner, and a touch classier than its competition, Graton will get the lion's share of our gaming time (but hopefully not our money) in the coming year. © 2013 Stephen Yuen

A Bargain Indeed

Travelers from Hawaii have been known to head straight from McCarran Airport to the craps and blackjack tables for an all-night session, but those days are long since past for your humble observer. First, the desire has diminished; second, I just can't do it any more (oh, were we talking about gambling?)

On this week's trip to Las Vegas, our first in five years, we passed up the excesses of the all-you-can eat buffets and opted for less stomach-stretching fare. Each of the Strip hotels has at least one celebrity chef. On Thursday night we dined at Julian Serrano's at the Aria, and Friday at 9:30 we got in to Shawn McClain's Sage, also at the Aria. The ticket for two (without wine) ranged from $100 to $150, not unreasonable when compared with prices at top restaurants in San Francisco.

When one takes into account the money saved by not spending time in the casino, fine dining in Las Vegas is a bargain indeed.

Julian Serrano's mixed paella

River Rock Casino, Geyserville

The line to the buffet stretched past the Megabucks machine.

Our sojourn to the North Bay included a stop at the River Rock casino in Geyserville. Like other tribal casinos in California, River Rock, IMHO, doesn't measure up to Nevada standards: Indian slots are tighter, their "comps" less generous, and the buffets less spectacular. But a mediocre gaming experience is to be expected when the establishment has a captive audience and the nearest competition is over an hour's drive away.

Indian casinos have another drawback: Section 19, Article 4 of the California constitution allows them only to offer card games, such as blackjack, but not dice or roulette.

Some casinos try to circumvent this restriction by adding cards to a prohibited game. The craps shooter rolls two die, which come up, say, as a 5 and a 6. Then the fifth and sixth cards are selected from two stacks, revealing the point to be, for example, a 4 and a 1. Thus the numbers showing on the dice are totally unrelated to the card total used for paying off the crap bet. It's singularly unsatisfying to be rooting for a number, see the dice hit it, then have the cards produce a different result. I played "card craps" once at another casino; never again.

The minimum bet at blackjack was $10. I killed time with the basic strategy (diagram), which a player can use to make a modest stake last for hours if he's not tempted to increase his bet size. After dinner and three hours of play, the others in our party had had enough.

We were home before midnight. For all his grousing about tribal casinos, your humble observer must concede that they have one huge advantage over Vegas and Reno: they're only a two-hour drive away.  © 2013 Stephen Yuen