San Francisco Has Peaked

(photo from the Real Deal)

There are numerous reasons to leave San Francisco--and post-office and IRS data show that people are leaving--but one reason stands above all: [bold added]

The desire for a larger home was the top reason people say they moved to and within the San Francisco metro area, which includes Oakland and Hayward, according to a recently released federal housing survey conducted in 2021.

Among the survey respondents who said they moved in the S.F. metro area — either from elsewhere or within the area, nearly half cited wanting a larger or better quality home as the reason for relocating, the American Housing Survey data shows...

San Francisco saw a steep population loss and an exodus of wealthy residents during the pandemic. Likely as a result of wealthier people moving out, the surrounding Bay Area saw the largest drop in household income in the country.

The housing survey data suggests the exodus is expected to continue, as San Franciscans are more likely to consider moving out of the city in the next year than any other major metro.

San Francisco's homelessness, crime, drug, public education, and transportation problems capture the headlines, but the main reason people move away is pedestrian; residential real estate is too expensive. Increasing the housing stock will take years, if not decades, to effect because of red tape and NIMBY homeowners' resistance.

COVID-19 may have been the catalyst, but now the widening gyre is nearly impossible to reverse. San Francisco has peaked.