Too Much, Even for California Democrats

Ash Kalra (Karl Mondon/Bay Area News Group)

The arguments for and against rent control are well known (we last posted about them in 2019). AB 1482, passed in 2019, imposed a limited amount of rent control on California landlords.

That law, AB 1482, capped rent hikes at between 5% and 10% a year, depending on inflation. It mainly applies to apartment buildings that are 15 years old or older.

San Jose Assemblyman Ash Kalra recently sought to expand rent control: [bold added]

Kalra’s bill would have lowered the rent increase limits to between 2% and 5% a year. It would have also extended the rent caps to all rented single-family homes and condos, which are now exempt unless owned by a corporation, trust or LLC. Additionally, it would have eliminated the current law’s 2030 sunset date, making the restrictions permanent.

Units under 15 years old would have continued to be exempt. Landlords would also have been allowed to charge new tenants any price upon move-in.

The bill would not have impacted local rent control ordinances in cities including San Jose, Oakland, San Francisco, Berkeley and Mountain View.

The bill’s opponents, including the state’s most powerful landlord and real estate groups, argued that additional regulations on rents would have discouraged new housing construction because they would make it more difficult for developers to turn a profit.

They also pointed to academic studies showing that in areas with rent control, tenants are less likely to move, and some landlords opt to stop renting out their units. Fewer available rentals can mean higher prices for units that are not rent-controlled, or when new tenants move in.

I know elderly homeowners who rent their homes to defray the costs of assisted living. Yes, they could sell their home and be subject to large capital gain taxes (the State of California doesn't give a break for capital gains because the taxpayer didn't "earn" the price appreciation).

The rent control expansion would have fallen largely on mom-and-pop landlords who try to rent out an older home. The proposal was too much, even for Democrats. Ash Kalra pulled his bill, but not before stating "he plans to reintroduce a version of the bill next year."

Californians keep reelecting politicians like Ash Kalra who want to redistribute wealth, and we are getting what we voted for.

Just Do It

Hazard when walking the dog in Foster City: coyotes

After breakfast I go over to my son's place to walk his dog. It's a win-win: my son has more time to get ready for work, the dog can tend to his business, and I get to spend 30-45 minutes in the Peninsula sunshine.

Walking, as has been known for many years, confers health benefits, especially for the Social Security crowd who can't run anymore (c'est moi). Among these benefits is one that's not mentioned in polite company: the freedom to relieve flatulence.

It began as a joke on social media, but medical experts say there’s real science behind the viral “fart walk” wellness trend.

Coined by 70-year-old Canadian cookbook author Mairlyn Smith, the term refers to a brief stroll taken after dinner, often to relieve gas.

“Going for a ‘fart walk’ after dinner is something that’s going to help you age wonderfully,” Smith declared last year in a now viral Instagram post.

Since then, the hashtag #fartwalk has earned millions of views on TikTok, fueled by a mixture of humor, personal anecdotes and surprising medical support...

“From a medical perspective, what it can really help do is promote digestion. It promotes intestinal motility, which is to squeeze and move things forward,” said Dr. Max Brondfield, an assistant professor of gastroenterology at UCSF. “It helps keep the entire digestive tract happy and balanced.”

Brondfield and other physicians are publicly endorsing the practice, not just for digestive comfort but for deeper systemic benefits.

Among them: blood sugar regulation. After eating, glucose enters the bloodstream, triggering a rise in blood sugar levels. Over time, especially in those with insulin resistance or sedentary lifestyles, this can increase the risk of Type 2 diabetes.

But walking, even for just five to 10 minutes, appears to blunt this spike.

"Fart walking" outdoors is not only good for your health, but the people who live in the same home will appreciate it too.

Tahoe: Becoming Clearer

Visibility (the Secchi depth) is decreasing (UC Davis)

The waters of Lake Tahoe are renowned for their clarity, but in recent decades murkiness has risen.

The "Secchi disk" is a measurement tool that has been used for over half a century:

The white frisbee is the most well-known and influential method of studying Lake Tahoe’s clarity. Called the Secchi disk, it has been used by UC Davis scientists to measure Lake Tahoe’s clarity since 1968. The method is simple: Scientists lower a 10-inch disk into the water, lean over the edge of the boat and mark the moment when it disappears into the blue and they can no longer see it. There are other ways to measure how far light penetrates into a lake and how clear the water is, Hampton said. However, the Secchi disk’s simplicity makes it universally understood and resonate with people in a meaningful way, and researchers use the Secchi disk to study clarity in lakes all over the world.

Despite the cloudy long-term trend, UC Davis researchers say that the lake has become clearer beginning three years ago: [bold added]

For the last five months of 2022, Lake Tahoe was the clearest it has been since the 1980s. That is due in part to a resurgence of the lake’s native zooplankton. They’ve provided a natural clean-up crew to help restore the lake’s famous blue waters.

The findings are reported in the “Lake Tahoe Clarity Report 2022,” released today from the UC Davis Tahoe Environmental Research Center, or TERC, for the Tahoe Regional Planning Agency...

The primary factors affecting lake clarity are the concentration of particles in a specific size range, such as silt and clay, and tiny phytoplankton, or algae. The phytoplankton Cyclotella, a single-celled alga, is in this size range and has impacted clarity in most years.

Zooplankton are small, microscopic animals. Some zooplankton, particularly Daphnia and Bosmina, are specialized to consume particles in that critical size range.

“Daphnia and Bosmina largely disappeared from the lake after they were grazed down following the introduction of the Mysis shrimp in the 1960s,” said Geoffrey Schladow, director of the UC Davis Tahoe Environmental Research Center. “In late 2021, the Mysis population unexpectedly crashed, and it took 12 months for the Daphnia and Bosmina to build up their numbers and start their natural cleansing.”

Other factors are known to influence year-to-year changes in clarity. These include the magnitude of the runoff, the warming of the lake surface and the depth to which the lake mixes in the previous winter. The report examined all these factors and concluded that only the change in the zooplankton community could account for the magnitude of this year’s change.

It was too lazy to attribute the trend toward lower water clarity to the usual suspects of runoff, pollution, wildfires, and global warming. The growth in Mysis shrimp may have been the reason because of the negative impact on zooplankton, while the 2021 "crash" in Mysis shrimp resulted in a resurgence in plankton that "cleansed" Lake Tahoe. The 2021 shrimp die-off is so far unexplained and needs to be researched for a satisfactory understanding of the Tahoe ecosystem.

What was once clear is now cloudy, buty your humble blogger is confident that it shall become clear again.

Francis Among the Wolves

Pope Francis in Krakow, 2016 (CNS/Paul Haring)

Although Pope Francis espoused political positions that were the opposite of President Trump's--against border enforcement and fossil fuels, and for "social justice"--both leaders had similar obstacles to overcome.

Both were outsiders who tried to turn their organizations in a drastic new direction (according to their critics);

Both insisted that they were just trying to return to founding principles (the Gospels, the Constitution);

Both met resistance from an entrenched bureaucracy.

To make lasting change in an institution, you need institutional skills. Francis’ disposition was pastoral, not administrative.

In the Catholic Church, political power is concentrated in the Roman curia—the practically invisible coterie of busybodies, many of them high-ranking clergy, who administer the vast Vatican bureaucracy. The curia is staffed largely by Italians. Francis was an outsider from faraway Argentina, which put him at a disadvantage in his own house. He had no interest in the material trappings of power, forswearing the famous bling of the papacy. He preferred to live not in the luxurious papal apartments but in a simple room in the hotel on the Vatican grounds.

Francis was a shepherd. He had the smell of his sheep about him. The manipulators and inside players of the Roman curia ate him for lunch. He didn’t reform them; they reformed him.

Pope Francis eschewed the trappings of office and walked the walk. R.I.P.

First Draw Soy Sauce

One sign that a society is affluent is the large number of offerings for a single class of product. For example, the bread aisle has over a dozen choices; not that long ago the decision was between white and whole wheat.

I also remember when there were only a couple of soy sauce brands on the shelf. Now there are light, dark, and special blends for cooking seafood and dipping dumplings. And there are at least three different manufacturers for each.

Lee Kum Kee (LKK), the company that makes a high-end oyster sauce, is selling a "first draw" soy sauce for 2-3 times the price of the regular stuff:

Compared to dark soy sauce, light soy sauce has a lighter color and is less salty, and is best used for seasoning and fine tuning the flavors of a dish. Based on the sauce’s quality, it can be further divided into “first draw,” collected when the beans are fermented for the first time. Its quality is the highest with a richer taste. It occupies a similar position to extra-virgin in the world of olive oil. And naturally, it’s sold for more. The second and third extractions are known respectively as “gold label” or “silver label,” affordable and found in the pantry of just about every average household.

It sounded like the language that wine connoisseurs use to distinguish the objects of their affection. Fully aware that I was probably being played, I bought a small bottle for $7.29 at 99 Ranch. At my age I should live a little.

Sequel for Guys Like Me

The Accountant 2: Braxton and Christian bonding (Page/WSJ)

We first saw the 2016 film, The Accountant, in 2017. Ben Affleck plays the titular character, Christian Wolff, a weapons and martial arts specialist who is also a financial wizard. He is the first person who underworld magnates call when they have an "accounting" problem and legitimate auditors can't be brought in. Sometimes, however, his clients violate Wolff's personal code of ethics and he employs his lethal skills, as well as leaks to law enforcement, to enforce that code.

Another aspect to the character is that he is severely autistic--Rainman meets Rambo--which makes for some amusing and awkward moments as the super-intelligent Wolff has trouble figuring out the basics of social interactions. The Accountant ended, after the obligatory victory over bad guys, with Christian Wolff reconciling with his normal (neurotypical) and equally lethal brother Braxton.

After nine years the sequel, The Accountant 2, has been released:

“The Accountant 2” is a rarity. It’s a sequel that blows by the respectable original, evolving into something simultaneously smarter and sillier, more grounded and much more fun.

Ben Affleck is back — finally, in his best role in years (along with his 2020 turn in “The Way Back”) — as Christian Wolff, an awkward, high-functioning autistic bean counter for bad guys who is secretly a super killer. He and his estranged brother Braxton (Jon Bernthal), a slick and successful assassin, reunite when Chris is summoned to help investigate the murder of a former U.S. Treasury agent he used to feed tips to on crimes.

...Affleck and Bernthal’s portrayals are miles ahead of where they were in the first film. Bernthal seems to benefit from revisiting roles years later, as evident in his convincing return as the Punisher in the current “Daredevil: Born Again” series. This time around, Braxton is informed by fraternal warmth and goofiness. The brothers’ relationship feels settled into, and it’s a pleasure to watch. When Braxton is about to invite some women into their motel room, he admonishes the stiff Chris, “Just go stand over there. Don’t be scary.”

Affleck’s Chris is much more detailed and lived in now. Before, physical and vocal inconsistencies could pop out, but the Berkeley-born actor is in the groove here. There’s increased precision in Chris’ neurodivergent behaviors and vocal mannerisms (perhaps credit is due to the film’s neurodiversity consultant, “Autism: The Musical” star Elaine Hall). Affleck appears more relaxed, so the character is more alive.

Throughout your humble CPA's life accountants have been mocked for their introversion and inflexibility. Finally there was a movie with an accounting protagonist that was popular enough to have a sequel (and perhaps a series!) for guys like me.

One of the Last Things to Worry About

The United States Postal Service (USPS) is the only delivery service that handles cremated remains "as others refuse to transport what is considered hazardous material." However, it loses track of many deliveries.

A 2023 USPS inspector-general report noted 452 undelivered cremated-remains packages at its mail-recovery center in Atlanta. The Postal Service is the only shipper that handles cremated remains, as others refuse to transport what is considered hazardous material. The inspector general concluded the Postal Service needed to improve its internal tracking system.

These shipments are insurable, yet cash settlements for families often do not make up for the loss of a loved one's remains.

With many Americans having dwelled in several locales throughout their lives, there is a high probability that there would be more of these shipments, as they would like their ashes to be transferred from the place where they died to, for example, the place where other family members are buried. (Such will likely be true in my case.)

Your humble blogger is reluctant to propose additional regulation, but perhaps government intervention is necessary to, say, indemnify the competition so that they can provide alternatives to the USPS.

California: Not Entirely Hopeless

Gov. Newsom and Pres. Trump on 1/24/25 (Politico)

California is still doing some things right.

SF Chronicle: California is now 4th largest economy in world, surpassing Japan

The International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook data for 2024 found that California had a nominal gross domestic product of $4.1 trillion, behind only the United States, China and Germany when compared with nations worldwide...

[Gov. Gavin] Newsom said, while announcing the lawsuit [against Trump tariffs], that more than 36,000 manufacturing companies in California employ more than 1.1 million people and are “disproportionately going to be hurt by this.”

The recent data also found that California had an economic growth rate of 6%, higher than the 5.3% rate for the United States, 2.6% rate for China or 2.9% rate for Germany.

India, which currently has a gross domestic product of $3.9 trillion, is projected to overtake California’s standing as fourth by 2026, according to preliminary data, Newsom’s office said.

We've posted how large companies like Oracle, Hewlett Packard, Tesla, and most recently Chevron have fled because California's taxes, regulations, and housing costs are inimical to the welfare of businesses and their employees.

For the time being the growth in businesses that have remained. e.g., Apple, Google, Facebook, Nvidia, Netflix, plus the formation of startups, have offset the losses. But once it goes negative--like the downtowns of San Francisco and Los Angeles--the turnaround will be extremely difficult.

Finding Home 8,000 miles Away

Bangkok's Terminal 21 (Andrew Chamings/SFGATE)

San Francisco's busiest and arguably most beautiful mall is in Thailand.[bold added]

8,000 miles away in Thailand, malls are thriving, and one in particular has devoted tens of thousands of square feet of gleaming floor space to a rosier view of San Francisco.

On a recent family trip to Bangkok, alongside tuk-tuk food tours and a night at the legendary Muay Thai boxing stadium, the city’s preponderance of malls were high on the list. There’s the ginormous Iconsiam complex on the river, which can be accessed by boat and features 7,000 shops over 10 stories and an IMAX theater. There’s the maze-like MBK mall where bartering is encouraged and vendors hawk dubious high-end designer gear for pennies. And, of course, there are the vibrant and chaotic outdoor night markets dotted across the city, replete with some of the best street food in the world. But at Terminal 21, a huge airport-themed luxury megamall on the busy Sukhumvit Road thoroughfare, Bangkok pays homage to San Francisco.

...A giant Golden Gate Bridge replica, hanging over the entire mall below, even features little cars driving across the bay. While I was there, a group of schoolgirls took selfies in front of the towering International Orange structure. Other nice details on the floor include the Haight-Ashbury intersection, two Tony Bennett-inspired heart sculptures, a nearly full-size California Street cable car replica on a turnaround and a giant crab directing shoppers to the restrooms.

Its real-world griminess has not yet displaced the idealized version of San Francisco in the world's popular imagination. There's still time to turn it around, but don't wait too long, San Francisco.

Pope Francis (1933-2025)

Pope Francis (left) with his predecessor Benedict XVI in 2016 (Osservatore Romano/Reuters/WSJ)

Pope Francis, who died today, served for 12 years. His papacy was marked by controversy as he tried to steer the church in a "social justice" direction:

Pope Francis, who sought to refocus the Catholic Church on promoting social and economic justice rather than traditional moral teachings but presided over growing divisions in the church and struggled with the lingering scandal of clerical sex abuse, has died. He was 88.

The pope’s death, announced by the Vatican, came after he spent weeks in the hospital earlier this year to treat a serious bout of pneumonia. His health remained fragile after he returned to his residence in the Vatican.

Jorge Mario Bergoglio was a pope of firsts. He was the first pope from the Americas, the first from the Jesuit order, and the first to take the name Francis. He was the first in almost six centuries to become pope after his predecessor resigned. Francis also gave the papacy a less formal and more approachable image by spurning regal attire, riding in compact cars and making headlines with blunt comments at news conferences.

He was openly political, urging grassroots activists around the world to bridge the gap between rich and poor while calling on wealthier countries to better protect the environment. As Western politicians moved to close their borders to refugees, Francis advocated for them and other migrants. In February, he criticized President Trump’s plan for mass deportations.

The most influential popes of the 20th century, for example John XXIII and John Paul II, modernized the church while leaving doctrinal matters largely unchanged. Pope Francis was an exception; he seemed more tolerant of same-sex marriage and communion for divorced catholics. He was not politically neutral; he spoke against capitalism and border enforcement.

He also took steps to strengthen the likelihood that the church will continue to move left:

Francis’ decisions over whom to appoint as cardinals—the men who will elect his successor—were notably strategic. He passed over prominent conservative bishops installed by his predecessor Pope Benedict XVI in dioceses such as Los Angeles and Venice, and appointed others from places such as Tonga and Laos, far from the church’s major population centers. By the time of his death, the pope had named about two-thirds of the cardinal electors. A two-thirds majority of electors is required to select the next pope.

My own personal sense is that the zeitgeist will lead the church to elect a more traditional, non-political Pope. We'll see.

Happy Easter

Unable to attend my church's regular Easter service at 10, I went hunting for an Episcopal sunrise service. The nearest was the Church of the Epiphany in San Carlos, where we had once been members from 1988 to 2003. The outdoor mass began at 6:30 a.m. and finished in under an hour. Music was furnished by a parishioner with a guitar.

I recognized a few old timers, but none of them recognized me. Well, it has been 22 years and we've all changed a bit.

Besides, if you show up to see and be seen, you're in the wrong place. Easter Sunday is a day to give thanks and praise for the gift of eternal life, regardless of whether two, three, or hundreds are gathered together.

A Small Step for Science

(Image from Cleveland Clinic)

Your humble blogger volunteered to be part of a medical study. However, in order to qualify I had to submit to a series of tests, not only to establish a baseline for future comparison but also to see if I met certain minimum health requirements.

Earlier this week I had difficulty passing the electrocardiogram (ECG). The "QT interval" was stuck between 475 and 480 when it had to be under 470. No matter what the technician and I tried, i.e., relaxing and slowing breathing, raising or lowering my back, removing the iPhone and Apple Watch, nothing worked. (On the previous day the reading was 494, and they gave me an injection of potassium and magnesium in order to remedy a shortage that can raise the QT interval.)

The Mayo Clinic: [bold added]

On an ECG, there are five waves. They use the letters P, Q, R, S and T.

Waves Q through T show the heart signaling in the heart's lower chambers.

The time between the start of the Q wave and the end of the T wave is called the QT interval. This is how long it takes for the heart to squeeze and refill with blood before it beats again. If the interval takes longer than usual to happen, it's called a prolonged QT interval.

(GE image)

GE Healthcare:

Just as there are many ways to correct the QT for heart rate, there have been numerous attempts to establish the upper limit of "normal" for a corrected QT interval.

Women have a slightly longer QT interval than men. This figure shows the 99% upper limit of normal of the QTc for men (470 msec) and women (480 msec).

Speaking of prolonging, this story has gone on long enough. Just as we were ready to concede defeat, I thought of my hearing aids, which were too small for the technician to notice and which, in any case, were not on her checklist of forbidden ECG items.

Upon their removal the QT interval fell all the way down to 446, well below the cutoff. Even before the study has begun, I'm already contributing to the advancement of science.

Good Friday, 2025

The Good Friday service is a meditation on Jesus' death and sacrifice. This evening the chaplain's homily emphasized a topic that I had not heard before: that Jesus taught us how to die.

In this world as his death was coming, Jesus reacted with serenity, truth, courage, and compassion. We are taught a great many things when we are growing up, but many of us are not taught how to respond to pain and suffering, the deaths of our loved ones and how to approach our own deaths.

I see many people in the hospital on their deathbeds. Some are tormented and cannot be comforted unless someone is with them at all times, and even then sometimes that’s not enough. Sometimes nothing helps.

And then there are those who know how to self-soothe and are mindful and are serene in accepting while in great pain and tragic, traumatic circumstances and even if isolated and forgotten by loved ones.

Jesus knew pain, but he also knew how to care for his soul while he was in the middle of it. He practiced self-soothing in a deep spiritual embodied way. He cared for his own heart so that he could continue to give of himself. He did this in many ways. Jesus often withdrew to lonely places and prayed. When the pressure grew too much, when the crowds kept coming to see him, when he was low in spirits, Jesus stepped away. He didn’t numb or distract himself. He got quiet and still. Jesus didn’t escape to avoid the world. He withdrew to be refilled with the presence of God.

He was honest when he prayed… In the Garden of Gethsemane Jesus doesn’t fake it. He lets them fear the weight of his circumstances. He cries, he sweats blood. When he prays, he speaks truth to the father. He opens his heart completely…

Jesus trusted the bigger picture. He was able to accept and surrender, not using avoidance or distraction. In Isaiah’s vision of the Messiah the servant is not frantic. He is not reactive. He is silent and aware and surrendered, not from fear but from focused concentration. He was oppressed and afflicted, yet he did not open his mouth. Like a lamb that went to the slaughter he had inner clarity in the middle of chaos. “Into your hands I commit my spirit.”

Jesus is in control.

Circumstances allow many of us to come to the realization that our death is imminent and that there's nothing we can do about it. It's a seeming paradox: everything is out of our control when are most helpless, yet we can still be in control. Jesus is the Son of God and part of the Holy Trinity, but in the end he was also a great Teacher

The Sincerest Form of Flattery

Antonio Gramsci 

For more than half a century America has been arguably a conservative-majority country. Yet liberals have controlled what and how the country talks about through their capture of academia, entertainment, and mass media. Conservatives have studied leftist political thinkers and begun employing their methods with some success. One such writer was Marxist Antonio Gramsci (1891-1937):

Gramsci died in 1937, but he can be seen as the godfather of today’s culture wars. A dedicated opponent of Italy’s fascist dictator Benito Mussolini, he spent most of his last decade in prison, where he developed a highly influential new way of thinking about politics that put culture, rather than economics, at the center of the class struggle...

In particular, Gramsci stressed the importance of universities in shaping culture. That makes him a model for American conservatives in their “fight against critical race theory, against trans ideology, against captured higher education institutions, against DEI,” [conservative Christopher] Rufo believes...

Javier Milei, the right-wing, libertarian president of Argentina, told Tucker Carlson in a 2023 interview that he had to “wage a culture war every single day” because his left-wing opponents “have no problem with getting inside the state and employing Gramsci’s techniques: seducing the artists, seducing the culture, seducing the media or meddling in educational content.”

In the U.S., the Italian thinker’s influence grew more slowly. Gramsci’s name appears in the writing of paleoconservative thinkers Paul Gottfried, Thomas Fleming and Sam Francis, who influenced Pat Buchanan’s Republican presidential bids in the 1990s. One of Gramsci’s biggest proponents in the pre-Trump era was Andrew Breitbart, the founder of Breitbart News, who quoted his axiom that “politics is downstream of culture.”

More recently, far-right writers like Curtis Yarvin, who’s influenced Vice President JD Vance, have talked about how to capture power through a culture war. “This war is not fought with bombs and bullets, or even laws and judges,” Yarvin wrote in 2022. “This war is fought with books and films and plays and poems. It is still a savage war!

Conservatives couldn't make much headway in steering the national discussion until the rise of alternate media (podcasts, blogs, social media). Once they gained a foothold, conservatives could wage counterattacks more successfully by focusing on the Gramscian cultural priority and using leftist tactics, e.g., Saul Alinsky's Rule 5 "Ridicule is man’s most potent weapon".

Leftist institutions, now that their biases have been exposed, are fighting for their lives, because public funding is no longer automatic. In the immediate future American politics will be more competitive, more vicious, and more personal. Your humble blogger will not disengage but will avoid audio and visual content, which tends to rouse emotions at the expense of rational thinking.

More Accidents, but Safer

(Meyer/Bay Area News Group)

It's big, complicated, and causes more accidents, but traffic experts call it a success. [bold added]

When a turbo roundabout rolled into the southernmost corner of the Bay Area early last year, it became the first-in-the-state adoption of a successful Dutch traffic innovation — a multi-lane roundabout shaped like a cartoon hurricane.

And while the roundabout in San Benito County, far south of San Jose, was meant to improve safety, it brought with it a wave of confusion and a spike in accidents that saw drivers colliding at rates many times higher than before it was installed...

A Mercury News analysis of crash data shows that crashes skyrocketed at the intersection in the year after the turbo roundabout was completed. But even as accidents have soared, serious injuries and deaths have disappeared, leaving many to assert that the roundabout is safer...

While a Mercury News analysis showed a spike of crashes around the roundabout when it was first completed, experts promised that crash rates would decrease over time.

So far, though, that hasn’t been the case.

When we wrote about the roundabout last year, we hoped that South Bay drivers would climb the learning curve quickly. Alas, their proximity to Silicon Valley appears not to have rubbed off.

Tax Day, 2025

(Image from Forbes)

This Tax Day was stressful, but probably because in my dotage I'm less able to handle multi-tasking.

After working over the weekend I managed to finish my mother’s tax returns. They were not rocket science but not simple either; she has real estate rentals, some of which are professionally managed, and the ones that aren't had no financial statements. I had originally planned on putting the returns on extension but as I was nearing the finish line I realized I had enough information to complete them with a few more hours of work.

As for us, we are going on extension (physician, heal thyself). I put the big items in the computer and found that we owe some money, so we will pay the amount on Form 4868. At our leisure we’ll go hunting for 2024 deductions and maybe get a refund for some of them. We have until October 15th, which will arrive too quickly.

Well, I’m off to the post office. It will be a relief to put taxes aside for a few days.

Silver Lining

Parts of Southern California are in extreme drought:

New data compiled by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows that large swaths of both California and Nevada are facing down a summer of extreme drought, particularly in the southeast corners of those states. And the summer heatwaves haven’t even hit yet...

The U.S. Department of Agriculture has already designated much of Southern California and southern Nevada (and all of Arizona) as being in a drought so severe that growers and farmers are now eligible for emergency financial relief. Counties such as Kern, Los Angeles, Riverside and San Bernardino are considered primary natural disaster areas, meaning they’ve been in a severe drought (or worse) for at least eight consecutive weeks. By June, the National Interagency Fire Center said that “above normal [significant fire] potential” is forecast for “portions of central and Southern California.” By July, that potential “will expand into more of California and much of the Northwest.”

The silver lining is that the reservoirs are full:

Thankfully, it’s not all doom and gloom. Farther north, California’s water levels are robust, thanks in part to a healthy Sierra Nevada snowpack. The state’s major reservoirs are “well-above average” right now, and there’s even optimism up in far Northern California after researchers in the region stumbled upon a giant, 21-trillion-gallon aquifer just over the border in Oregon. Still, just months after a cascade of devastating wildfires ravaged Los Angeles, there’s already a sense from some prognosticators that this summer could be hot, dry and dangerous.

California is fortunate that it has had three wet winters in a row. It won't have to pay the price this year for its inexcusable delay--to 2032--in bringing the Sites Reservoir on stream. Let's hope our luck lasts for seven more years.

Palm Sunday, 2025

In her homily the lady minister meditated on the highs and lows of Holy Week--Jesus' triumphant entrance into Jerusalem, the Last Supper, the betrayals and despair of the Crucifixion, and the joy of the Resurrection, the foundational event of Christianity.

Don't just skip to the happy ending; the journey, not just the destination, is important.

The church's worship area looks especially beautiful. The purple of Lent has given way to Palm Sunday's red, and the green palms and blue-white stained glass festooned the sanctuary with color. Enjoy the journey this week.

iPhone 16 Pro Max

One week ago I decided to hold off buying a new iPhone 16 because Apple Intelligence had been delayed and steep price hikes were coming.

Family members encouraged me to go ahead and make the purchase; what if Apple runs out of inventory? (It wasn't a hard push.) On Friday afternoon I went to the Apple Store and charged an iPhone 16 Pro Max to the Apple card.

It may be cognitive dissonance justifying the purchase, but the new phone is much faster than the 6½-year-old XS Max, the battery life is nearly double (after the entire day the charge was still above 50%), and the camera is a vast improvement in low light.

Later Friday afternoon the Administration announced that it was exempting smartphones and other electronics from the new tariffs. The supply of iPhones seems to be assured, but I am glad I made the purchase anyway.

Antiparochi

A train between Polikatoikies in Athens

It sounds like an Italian dish, but antiparochi is a financial device used in post-war Greece to spur the construction of millions of homes. A variant of this device could kick-start homebuilding in San Francisco and other high-cost American cities.

Antiparochi emerged in Athens from the wreckage of two world wars, after successive invasions by fascist Italy and Nazi Germany left Greece devastated. The idea involved homeowners in postwar Athens trading their land with apartment builders in exchange for a few condos in a new building, in lieu of cash. These buildings, typically four-story to six-story structures called polykatoikía, came to symbolize middle-class Athens.

Most new city housing in modern-day America involves the developer buying high priced land from a homeowner, who pays large capital-gain taxes and typically moves away. The developer earns a profit by building two or more houses, condominiums, or even an apartment building; none of these structures is low-cost because of the high-priced land.

As your humble blogger understands antiparochi, the homeowner exchanges his property to the developer in return for one or more new units. The developer, who no longer pays a high price for the land, doesn't need to sell the other new units for as high a price. Under Greek tax law, apparently, antiparochi did not result in taxes to the original landowner.

Key to making the structure work in the U.S. is the non-recognition of capital gains by the homeowner for tax purposes. Under current law only investment properties can be exchanged for other investment properties (under IRC Section 1031) without triggering capital gains taxes. A homeowner who gives up his personal residence experiences a taxable transaction, whether he receives back cash or another real estate property. (It may be true that clever tax lawyers can come up with solutions using partnerships or other entities, just as they did with a limited number of high-income individuals to work around the $10,000 SALT limitation.)

Antiparochi would only constitute part of the solution in California, however, who still would have its notorious red-tape problem. Nevertheless, kudos for creativity.

Wasted and Useful Lives

B. Kliban (1935-1990) was a cartoonist known for his drawings of cats, but it was his talent for making absurd connections that appealed to this fan. I was beginning my white collar career when I came across this gem. It was as funny then as it is now.

Relief Rally

Happy trader, at least for 1 day (McDermid/Reuters/CNBC)

The stock market bounced back today in one of "its biggest rallies in history".

The stock market mounted one of its biggest rallies in history after President Donald Trump announced a pause in some of his “reciprocal” tariffs on the globe, causing a market that has been under extreme pressure for the past week to explode higher.

The S&P 500 skyrocketed 9.52% to settle at 5,456.90 for its biggest one-day gain since 2008. For the broad market index, it was the third-biggest gain in post-WWII history. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 2,962.86 points, or 7.87%, to close at 40,608.45 for its biggest percentage advance since March 2020. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 12.16% to end at 17,124.97, notching its largest one-day jump since January 2001 and second-best day ever.

About 30 billion shares traded hands, making it the heaviest volume day on Wall Street in history, according to records that go back 18 years.

“I have authorized a 90 day PAUSE, and a substantially lowered Reciprocal Tariff during this period, of 10%, also effective immediately,” Trump posted on his Truth Social. Trump, in the same post, said he was raising the tariff on China higher again to 125%.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent later clarified that all countries except China would return to the 10% baseline tariff rate, down from the higher rates that previously shocked the markets, as negotiations take place. The pause would not apply to sector tariffs, Bessent said.

Stocks that were heavily pressured by the trade war tensions led the comeback Wednesday afternoon. Apple and Nvidia soared more than 15% and nearly 19%, respectively. Walmart shares rallied 9.6%. Tesla shares climbed more than 22% on the back of the pause announcement.

The precipitous fall in the stock market since last Wednesday made it ripe for a bounce back upon any piece of good news. In this case the news was very hopeful--President Trump's 90-day pause in tariffs excluding China--and was a sign that tariffs were more a bargaining chip than a permanent fixture. However, the economic landscape before last Wednesday was not especially rosy, so the odds are against the one-day relief rally to continue much longer.

Great American Success Story

(Photo: NASA/Zuma Press/WSJ)

41-year-old Jonny Kim is the epitome of the Great American success story. Born in Los Angeles to South Korean immigrants, he has been embraced by Asian-Americans, who also dread comparisons with him by their parents. [bold added]

In half a lifetime, Jonny Kim has achieved the American dream three times over. He was a Navy SEAL. Then he graduated from Harvard Medical School. And on Tuesday, he blasted off as part of his latest act: astronaut.

When novelist Wesley Chu first learned about Kim, a 41-year-old father of three who is also a Navy pilot, his first reaction was awe.

His second: “Thank God my mom is not friends with his mom.”

After word of his feats spread, Kim became a global source of inspiration. And yet, to many of the same people who glance at his résumé and can’t help but compare it to theirs, he has also conjured up a bit of another feeling.

Dismay.

This has been especially true in the Asian-American community, where Kim, the son of South Korean immigrants, has been simultaneously lauded as a hero—and feared, only half-jokingly, as “every Asian kid’s worst nightmare.”

The worry: No matter what they achieve, their high-demanding immigrant parents will say Jonny Kim already did that—only better. “We accomplished all this stuff, but really, it’s what he did that matters,” Chu said.

Kim became an internet meme among Asian Americans, who frequently take to social media to express gratitude that he’s not a relative. NASA’s social-media posts about Kim are flooded with comments expressing similar sentiments. “As a fellow Asian, I hope my parents do not get to read this. But, safe journey my man,” one wrote.

His childhood was marked by tragedy:

It all started with trauma during his childhood in Los Angeles. Kim said he witnessed his father, who he described as alcoholic and abusive, pull a gun on their family. Police shot his father dead in their attic.

His desire to physically protect his mother and brother led him to become a Navy SEAL. But an Ultimate Frisbee ankle injury delayed his plan to join the Navy as an operations specialist. When he recovered, a recruiter steered him toward becoming a medic.

In 2005, Kim joined SEAL Team Three, serving as a medic and sniper, among other roles. He earned a Silver Star and a Bronze Star for treating wounded comrades during two tours in Iraq, an experience that motivated him to attend medical school.

No matter how successful, we eventually meet someone who is better than we are in our field of endeavor. (My revelation occurred in college.) Jonny Kim has yet to meet that person.

Hillsdale Mall: Food Destination

Hot Dog on a Stick is no longer at Hillsdale (Flickr)

When we moved to Foster City at the end of the '70's the Peninsula, except for tony towns like Hillsborough and Atherton, was decidedly middle class. We shopped at Hillsdale Mall in San Mateo for most of our non-grocery needs. At Sears we repaired our cars and bought Kenmore washing machines, dryers, and refrigerators. We went to Macy's for fancier clothes and personal items than could be found at Sears.

The food court was just a place to grab a bite in between stores. Burger King and Panda Express were popular, but I liked Hot Dog on a Stick; the dough-wrapped dog's crispy exterior dipped in mustard and a fresh lemonade hit the spot.

Over the years Peninsula shopping centers have either been demolished for housing or have been remodeled to appeal to upscale clientele.

Hillsdale's design renovation and new restaurants has been met with approval by SFGate food reporter Susana Guerrero:

When a bamboo basket of brightly colored soup dumplings arrives at my table inside Palette Tea Garden restaurant, I can’t help but marvel at the transformation of Hillsdale Shopping Center.

Palette's dumplings (SFGate)

The large Cantonese restaurant, which opened this second Bay Area outpost, its first outside of San Francisco, in 2020, is among a wave of new eateries that have planted roots at the bustling Peninsula mall in recent years. The 71-year-old San Mateo mall has been on a steady remodeling kick since at least 2016, when it tore out its dated food court. In 2018, it unveiled an elegant dining terrace that featured new restaurants like Blue Whale Poke Bar & Grill, Kuro-Obi ramen bar and thve Bay Area’s first Uncle Tetsu Japanese Cheesecake.

Just outside the dining terrace, Hillsdale gained a Shake Shack and the Refuge, which has been featured on Guy Fieri’s “Diners, Drive-ins, and Dives.” With new additions like Michelin-recognized Flores and the all-you-can-eat restaurant Mikiya Wagyu Shabu House, which opened earlier this year, it’s no longer the mall of my childhood.

Hillsdale's restaurants and food court are now a destination rather than an afterthought. Over the past year I've gone to the mall to dine more often than to shop.

Green Shoots

Passing the peace

Your humble blogger is an inveterate optimist. Young families are starting to come (back) to church, and I wonder if a decades-long declining-attendance trend has finally been reversed. Could this be another Great Awakening? America experiences a religious revival every century or so.

I'm also confident that the stock market will rebound, though it's likely not going to happen this week. We underestimate the resilience and adaptabiity of American companies, who will be able to ride out this storm until tariffs are reduced, either through negotiation or pressure from the President's own supporters.

It's been less than one week that the new tariff policy has been in effect, and if someone had said that a Presidential announcement of a non-military nature had erased $6.6 trillion in stock market value in two trading days I wouldn't have believed him.

Tariffs have been called a self-inflicted wound; well, if it could be done by one man then it could be undone by him if the pain becomes unbearable.

Speaking of self-inflicted wounds, I am glad to see that Americans are coming to their senses about decarbonization. The need for energy has escalated dramatically because of the artificial-intelligence boom, and it's futile to decommission clean-burning natural gas turbines while China is bringing on stream two coal-fired plants per week. We'll need the electricity so that our AI and robots can overcome China and other countries' advantages in labor costs.

Amidst the stock market "wreckage" (still above the levels in 2022) I see green shoots.

No Fine-Tuning This

iPhone: it's all tariff-able.

Last September I was certain I was going to buy a new iPhone. However, two developments have upended that Apple cart: 1) the delay in rolling out Apple Intelligence; 2) the newly-announced tariff on goods from China, where most iPhones are made.

The WSJ shows how the 54% tariff on Chinese imports raises the cost of the materials that go into the iPhone by 54% (from $549.73 to $846.59). If Apple wants to maintain the same profit margin of 50% on materials, the price of the 256GB iPhone 16 would have to rise by 54% (from $1,100 to $1,694). Such an increase in price will cause some customers to choose the iPhone's competitors who are not experiencing similar price hikes, or at least hold off purchasing a new smartphone. Apple sales will suffer, perhaps a lot, which explains why the stock has fallen 28% from its all-time high.

I am firmly ensconced in the Apple ecosystem and will buy a new iPhone when the creaky 2018 iPhone XS Max gives up its ghost, but not sooner. The WSJ:

This tariff matter is far from settled. Our advice is to hold off on stockpiling last year’s iPhones, and make that one in your hand last as long as it can.

The Sky Isn't Falling

NASDAQ investors feel the pain and pleasure more keenly than those who are broadly diversified

Even the Wall Street Journal can write the-sky-is-falling headline:

Trump’s Tariffs Wipe Out Over $6 Trillion on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

The message from Wall Street’s epic two-day rout, which destroyed $6.6 trillion in market value: There is nowhere to hide from Trump’s steep tariffs on goods imported from nearly every corner of the planet.

Manufacturers and retailers. Exporters and importers. High tech and low tech. Big names in virtually every industry were hit, from Silicon Valley behemoths like Apple and Meta Platforms to aerospace manufacturer Boeing to oil producer Devon Energy. Shares of private-equity giant Apollo Global Management lost about a fifth of their value this week, as did United Airlines.

When it was all over, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had lost more than 3,000 points for the week, or 7.9%, sending the blue-chip index into a correction. The tech-focused Nasdaq plunged 10% and into a bear market, meaning the index had fallen 20% from its previous high. The S&P 500 sank 9.1%.

The Magnificent Seven group of large tech stocks lost about $1.6 trillion in market value, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

“There are a lot of confused, scared and angry people out there,” said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers.

My portfolio was heavily weighted toward tech stocks during the 2000 dot-com bust and the 2008 financial crisis. Those were nervous times. I didn't understand those crises--and certainly had no confidence in their remedies--but eventually stocks recovered and moved to greater heights.

This time we do understand why markets fell, and it's a reasonable supposition that reversing the tariffs could lead to at least a partial recovery. On the bright side, there's always the chance that they could work in getting other countries to lower their trade barriers during bilateral negotiations. No, the sky isn't falling, at least not yet.

Just Nibbling

My entry points for four stocks

Since the stock market began dropping in February I've been nibbling at stocks that I formerly believed were too expensive relative to their growth prospects. Of course, I had not anticipated the stock market rout from the Trump tariffs announced yesterday, in which case I have bought too soon. (Analysts expect more declines as other countries, especially China, respond with "retaliatory" tariffs.)

I've invested less than 2% of my retirement monies so far and will close my eyes and buy more if declines continue. I am still confident that stock prices will be higher in a year, and though they were not bought at the bottom I will be glad I nibbled.

Tariffs: He Really Meant It

(photo Schiefelbein/AP/American Prospect)

The big news this afternoon was the new tariffs imposed on the rest of the world:

President Trump’s sweeping new tariff plan reverberated through global markets, with U.S. stock futures slumping and the dollar tumbling to its lowest level of the year. Popular stocks such as Apple, Amazon and Nike were among the largest retreaters in offhours trading and oil prices slid.

Here’s what to know:

All U.S. imports will be subject to a 10% tariff, effective April 5.

Trump will impose even higher rates on some nations that the White House considers bad actors on trade. For example, Japan faces a 24% duty and the European Union faces a 20% levy, effective April 9.

China will be hit with a new 34% tariff, adding to previous duties, like the 20% tariff Trump imposed over fentanyl. That means the base tariff rate on Chinese imports will be 54%, before adding pre-existing levies.

The tariffs are pegged to amounts Trump says other countries impose on the U.S. Here’s the math behind the levies.

Some global leaders are vowing to retaliate, while others are hopeful there is still time to strike a deal with the U.S.

Canada and Mexico are excluded from the reciprocal tariff regime. They are still subject to plans to impose 25% tariffs on most imports to the U.S., though the administration has given an exemption for autos and many other goods. Here’s a list of the products and countries exempted from the tariffs.

Trump’s 25% tariffs on foreign-made autos and parts took effect at 12:01 a.m. ET

Four years ago we reflected on the stagflation of the Seventies and how it took years for Ronald Reagan and Paul Volcker to wring inflation out of the system and restore economic growth.

The short-term pain hurt the Republican Party politically in the Eighties and may well hurt it this time as President Trump tries to reset 80 years of globalization and no-import-tariffs "free trade" practiced by the United States and no one else. It was clear to your humble blogger that President Trump did not talk about the pain of his policies in order to get elected, but it is better that he get it out of the way now while his party controls both the House and Senate.

This Time We Mean It

In 2019 we took the Federal Government's warning seriously and went to the Roseville DMV to get our Real ID.

Look for the bear on CA REAL ID's

You will need a REAL ID driver license or ID card if you want to continue using your driver license or ID card to do any of the following:

Board a domestic flight starting October 1, 2020.

Enter secure federal facilities or military bases starting October 1, 2020. (Note: Check with the federal facility/military base before your visit to verify their identification requirements.)

Purchase firearms or ammunition. (Note: Check with the firearms dealer you plan to visit to verify their identification requirements)

Procrastinators have been rewarded, because the Real ID deadline has been postponed three times. However, the Trump Administration seems to be serious when it says that there will be no more extensions.

A May 7 deadline to get a REAL ID is getting a lot more real—and setting off a mad scramble for U.S. travelers who have yet to get one.

Travelers will need a REAL ID-upgraded driver’s license, identification card or another compliant ID, like a passport, to board domestic flights starting on that date. Despite years of previous delays, federal officials say travelers need to take the May 7 date seriously. At Department of Motor Vehicles sites across the country, it appears many are.

Local DMV offices have added hundreds of appointment slots and extended operating hours to meet the flood of Americans trying to get an upgraded ID in time. From Tennessee to Pennsylvania, people report waiting hours in lines that stretch down city blocks or wrap around buildings. Some have flocked to Facebook groups and other social-media forums to strategize on where to find the least-crowded DMV locations. Others are just venting...

About one in five travelers currently flying through U.S. airports doesn’t have a REAL ID or other compliant form of identification, according to Transportation Security Administration officials. That’s despite the requirement being in the works for decades and states issuing REAL IDs since the 2010s.

If an individual had over five years to obtain a Real ID but didn't and now has to wait in long lines, he will not gain sympathy from me.

The silver lining in all this is that the Real ID should satisfy the requirements to prove citizenship and residency for the new Voter ID laws being enacted in various states. In California we had to provide "social security card, birth certificate, two proofs of California residency, e.g., property tax or utility bill or bank statement." Doing it once was a pain but at least once should be enough.