The Autocrat's Fatal Flaw

Xi Jinping in March, 2023 when he was elected
President for his third term (NPR)

Xi Jinping's "successor's dilemma": [bold added]

Autocrats tend to prefer installing successors whom they trust to uphold their legacy and protect their interests in retirement. But leaders-in-waiting must start building their own power base ahead of time, if they are to avoid being deposed or rendered ineffectual after taking office. Once a clear successor emerges, the political elite will naturally start realigning their loyalties—a process that can undermine the incumbent leader, who may come to fear that the heir apparent is plotting to usurp power.

Authoritarian leaders also have to expect grave consequences should they lose power involuntarily. Even autocrats who retire on their own terms have few guarantees for their safety, other than their ability to maintain leverage over their successors. In a 2010 study, political scientists Alexandre Debs and H.E. Goemans reviewed the fate of more than 1,800 political leaders worldwide, categorized by regime type, from the late 1910s to the early 2000s. Some 41% of the 1,059 autocrats suffered exile, imprisonment or death within a year of leaving office, compared with just 7% of 763 democratic leaders.

Not since Mao has power been so consolidated in one man. Xi Jinping, who will turn 70 next month, has avoided naming a successor and possible rival.

As we've noted before, China faces a demographic time bomb. Many of its youth are disaffected, and China's neighbors, fearful of its imperial ambitions, are arming themselves. By not naming his successor, or by not formulating a reliable method for choosing one, Xi Jinping ironically has fostered the very instability that may endanger his goal of a China that is first among nations.