Two Floods Coming

We've been given ample time to prepare for two floods, but readiness is questionable.

El Niño is coming

The chances of any El Niño forming are now 82% by July and 94% by November, according to the NOAA report.

More significant for California, there’s a 46% chance of a strong El Niño by November, increasing to 54% by January, NOAA researchers concluded Thursday...

Since 1951, there have been 26 El Niño events. Of those, 11 have been weak, 7 moderate, 5 strong and 3 very strong. Overall, rainfall in Southern California averaged 126% of normal. In the Bay Area it was 109% of normal.

But two of the three very strong El Niños, during the winters of 1982-83 and 1997-98, were associated with seasons that were among the wettest in recorded California history, with massive Sierra Nevada snow packs and major flooding.

More Migrants are Coming

A pandemic-era public health policy known as Title 42, used to turn away asylum seekers at the U.S. southern border, is coming to an end just before 9 p.m. tonight, prompting concerns about unprecedented migration flows.

Meanwhile, hundreds of migrants have been waiting outside between border walls in San Ysidro for days, sometimes with nothing more to eat all day than a single granola bar handed out by Border Patrol officers.

Federal, state and local officials have had more than two years to prepare for this moment. But officials running migrant shelters on both sides of the border say they have very little information about how to handle the anticipated increase in asylum seekers trying to cross from Mexico into California and other states.

Update: Border appears calm after lifting of pandemic restrictions

The border between the U.S. and Mexico was relatively calm Friday, offering few signs of the chaos that had been feared following a rush by worried migrants to enter the U.S. before the end of pandemic-related immigration restrictions...

“We did not see any substantial increase in immigration this morning,” said Blas Nunez-Neto of the Department of Homeland Security. He said the agency did not have specific numbers because it was early in the day.

By the way, I hope this guy makes it:

“I hope it’s a little better and that the appointments are streamlined a little more,” said Yeremy Depablos, 21, a Venezuelan traveling with seven cousins who has been waiting in the city for a month.

Fearing deportation, Depablos did not want to cross illegally. “We have to do it the legal way.”