AI: This Time is Different, or Not

(Morris/Bloomberg/WSJ)

A Stanford study has shown that artificial intelligence is reducing entry-level jobs: [bold added]

The report, “Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence,” published Tuesday, draws on millions of anonymized payroll records from ADP, the nation’s largest payroll processor, spanning late 2022 — when generative AI tools like ChatGPT surged — through mid-2025.

It found that employment for workers ages 22 to 25 in the most AI-exposed jobs, including software development and customer service, has dropped by 13% relative to less-exposed roles.

By contrast, older employees in those same occupations have seen employment remain steady or even grow.

The study highlights a clear divide.

“Employment has begun to decline for young workers in highly exposed occupations like coding and call centers, but older workers and workers who use AI to augment, not automate work, have seen job gains,” Erik Brynjolfsson, a Stanford economist who led the research, wrote on social media.

Experience provides some job protection for older workers in the current environment:

Harder-to-automate skills older workers picked up during their careers might be insulating them from the same kind of AI hit. A senior software developer, for example, might have learned how to work collaboratively with noncoders and deliver the product the company needs. Such skills remain highly valued to employers, and may never be automated away.

The job-market paradox that has long pre-dated AI: employers value experience, but there are fewer jobs that allow young workers to gain experience.

To cling to the belief that all will be well is to think that this time is not different. I am not sure about that, but I am sure that I'm glad I'm retired.