Has Austin Peaked?

Downtown Austin, 2022 (American Statesman)

Within the past five years major companies such as Oracle, HP, Tesla, and Wells Fargo have moved from the Bay Area to Austin, Texas. There are signs, however, that Austin may have peaked. [bold added]

Nearly five years after Austin, Texas, became a darling of the tech industry, luring companies out of California with the promise of lower taxes and a better quality of life, the city is now bleeding tech talent that is flowing back to the coasts.

A new report from venture-capital firm SignalFire shows that in 2024 Big Tech employment declined 1.6% in Austin, and startup employment fell 4.9%. Tech employment in Dallas and Houston also declined, along with cities like Denver and Toronto. Tech employment grew, on the other hand, in New York and San Francisco.

It is a shift from five years ago, when Texas seemed like a growing Sunbelt beacon for tech, luring companies like Tesla, Hewlett Packard Enterprise and Oracle from California, and inspiring a number of remote tech workers and startups to follow them. But many of those companies have since laid off workers and Oracle actually relocated from Texas to Nashville, Tenn.

“I think that promise was never realized,” said Asher Bantock, SignalFire’s head of research. “This idea that it would become a new startup hub didn’t materialize.”

Return-to-office requirements combined with the burgeoning artificial-intelligence industry centralizing in Silicon Valley drew workers back West, while Austin’s fluctuating living costs and outdated infrastructure left new transplants frustrated, Bantock said.

It's too soon to say that one data point marks the beginning of a trend reversal. California's high taxes, regulatory regime, and housing costs haven't changed and for many businesses more than offset the benefits of staying. The large public companies aren't coming back, and it's a safe bet the ones that do remain in California have contingency plans to move if business conditions get worse.

Because California politicians don't feel compelled to change, I predict we'll see more departures from California in the next decade.

SF Bay Area: the IncredibleTalent is Still Here

Using 192 laser beams, this Lawrence-Livermore apparatus ignited
a hydrogen fuel pellet the size of a peppercorn in 2022. The experiment
produced more energy than it consumed and showed fusion
energy was possible. (DOE/Chronicle)

In a man-bites-dog story an Austin tech startup is moving to the San Francisco Bay Area. [bold added]

Focused Energy, a startup specializing in laser fusion for clean energy, is relocating its U.S. headquarters from Austin to the Bay Area.

The German company announced plans on Wednesday to establish a state-of-the-art facility in the region, with an investment of $65 million. The facility will house some of the world’s most advanced lasers, crucial for developing commercially viable fusion energy, according to a press release.

Scott Mercer, CEO of Focused Energy, said that the move aims to leverage the “incredible pool of talent” in the Bay Area and benefit from established methodologies developed by scientists at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, which achieved net energy gain for the first time in December 2022...

With over $175 million in private and public funding, Focused Energy is one of eight fusion companies selected by the U.S. Department of Energy for support under its Milestone-Based Fusion Development Program.

The company has also received significant grants from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research to further its research and development initiatives.

Although numerous California companies such as Oracle, Tesla and Chevron have relocated their headquarters to Texas in recent years, this case illustrates the opposite trend.

The new Bay Area facility will enhance laser efficiency and establish a global supply chain necessary for scaling commercial fusion operations.

Once fully operational, fusion fuel equivalent to “three soda cans” will be capable of powering a city the size of San Francisco for an entire day, Focused Energy said.

Startups' main objective is to demonstrate their proof-of-concept. Cutting costs and red tape will be prioritized later, and the company can then decide if California is where it wishes to be planted.

Meanwhile, it's nice to know that the Bay Area hasn't yet dissipated its “incredible pool of talent” that attracts tech companies around the world. Your humble blogger still holds out hope that we can undo California's status as the worst-taxed, most woke, and most over-regulated State in the Union.

KISS Guy Shreds

Current top-ten rock band Foo Fighters often calls audience members up to the stage to strut their stuff. The results are predictable---technique doesn't usually match the amateur's enthusiasm

...until last month in Austin. A fan made up as the young Gene Simmons climbs the stage and absolutely shreds the guitar.

Band leader David Grohl's opening summons:

Hey, KISS Guy! I’m lookin at you!

Did you have a f****** sign thing that you were holding up? Let me see that sign. [“Let me play (1997 hit) Monkey Wrench”]

What instrument do you play? This? [holds out guitar] Do you suck? Don’t f****** say “kind of”, cause I won’t invite you up here.

Yeah, right now, Gene Simmons! Get you’re a** up here, KISS guy!

Don’t get too excited yet. You might s*** the bed in front of your home town, brother.

Ladies and Gentlemen, I’ve had to sit here staring at this m*****f****** all night long. Come here, KISS Guy.

What’s your name, KISS guy? F*** it, I don’t even want to know.

KISS Guy hits a chord, and the rest is astonishing and funny.

Memorable quotes:

He brought his own f****** pick!
Dude, your face is falling off!

Afterword: You can't scream into the mic (example at 6:15 in video) for over 20 years like David Grohl without training and practice.
Screeching in a Metal Band Takes Lozenges, Tea and a Patient Vocal Coach

Rockin' Austin

After the conference’s closing banquet we wandered down to Cedar Street. The outdoor stage was jammed with a younger crowd, undeterred by the $5 cover charge or the lateness of the hour--- it was past ten on a weeknight. Could it be that there were hundreds of Austiners who didn’t care about showing up half asleep at their class or job?

The Spazmatics had started their act. The skill of their singing and dexterity of their drumming, guitar-whaling, and dancing belied the geekiness of their thick eyeglasses, sweater vests, pocket protectors, and superficially awkward, spasmodic movements.

The music was loud but not ear-splittingly painful, high-octane rock with a strong rhythm. Of course, the observer’s perceptions could have been dulled by the onset of age and the quantity of alcohol coursing through his veins. Does music have objective standards or is it the audience reaction that determines the music’s quality? Wow, heavy thoughts, dude.

Atrophied muscles involuntarily twitched as semi-arthritic hips responded to the beat. Arms waved, holding half-filled glasses of chardonnay. The barkeep didn’t frown; spillage boosted sales. Midnight arrived quickly, and sad experience advised that I should get back. I still had to pack for a 6 a.m. bus to the airport.

Most in our group didn’t return till 3, after late-night noshing on pizza and beer. I heard later that they had trouble staying awake the following day, and a few even cut their meetings altogether. When in Austin, do as Austiners do. © 2007 Stephen Yuen

The Sap is Rising

On Tuesday we took a break from our meetings to play golf at the Wolfdancer Golf Club on the grounds of the Hyatt Regency Lost Pines resort outside Austin. I hadn't played since last August but needn't have worried about embarrassing myself. We were all about the same, i.e., pretty bad.

Our "forecaddy", Shad, chased down errant balls, cleaned our clubs, and told us where we should place our shots. He was able to make suggestions such as "try to land it about 30 feet to the left of the pin" without a trace of irony. Everyone in our party knew that if even one of us made the green in regulation that that would be a minor miracle.

We played a version of Scramble, where we took the best of the four shots to set up the next one. We finished four over par (the winning team was 5 under). With Shad obviating the need to find balls in the rough, the beer flowing freely, and T-shirt weather in early February, it doesn't get much better than this. © 2007 Stephen Yuen

Authenticity

Barack Obama has been accused of not being “black” enough. Because the senator is the son of immigrants and not a descendant of slaves, the argument goes, he lacks the perspective of most African-Americans. His experience is not “authentic”. (If whites followed this thinking, they would have to trace their lineage to the Mayflower in order to be President.) From Time:

"Obama's mother is of white U.S. stock. His father is a black Kenyan," Stanley Crouch recently sniffed in a New York Daily News column entitled "What Obama Isn't: Black Like Me." "Black, in our political and social vocabulary, means those descended from West African slaves," wrote Debra Dickerson on the liberal website Salon.

Barack Obama’s parents wanted to be here. What people want, they treasure, and what they treasure, they’ll look after. If his parents had any influence over his attitudes, that’s a plus in my book.

The weather in Austin has been clear, slightly cooler and drier than in the Bay Area. The first day of the company conference has been devoted to planning meetings, so there hasn’t been much time to enjoy the sun. Last night I over-indulged at the barbecue. Gotta learn to pace myself. I’m not 40 any more. © 2007 Stephen Yuen

Not in California Part II: we raced armadillos at the barbecue.

What Football Game?

3:00 PM, Pacific
Most everyone in the country is preparing to watch a certain football game that will kick off in half an hour. I’m at San Francisco airport waiting for a flight to Austin (by way of Denver). On this national semi-holiday the United terminal is empty, and the flight is wide open. The gate agent has distributed boarding passes to all stand-bys, even the non-revenue passengers; the 757 is less than half full.

Although I don’t have a strong rooting interest in the game, it would be nice to see Colts quarterback Peyton Manning win a championship. In the number-one country in the world your life isn’t complete unless you’re number one on whichever pyramid you’re climbing. Peyton Manning’s father, Archie, was a great quarterback for the Saints. But the Saints had the misfortune of playing in the NFC West during the 49ers’ heyday, and Archie wasn’t surrounded with a strong supporting cast. Perhaps the son can succeed where the father did not.

7:00 PM, Mountain
There’s only a half-hour window to transfer planes in Denver, but weather is not a problem, as it was recently when the airport had to be closed due to a blizzard. I wonder if my luggage will make it. It’s a good ten-minute walk to the A319. All the natives are wearing heavy coats, and all I have on is a light sweater. Luckily I don’t have to go outside. The airplane is about two-thirds full and takes off on time. The Colts have come back from a 14-6 deficit and lead 16-14 at halftime.

10:00 PM, Central
We land in Austin twenty minutes early. The captain announces that the Colts have won, 29-17. Peyton Manning is validated. My bag comes off the carousel in ten minutes. The driver is waiting to take me to the hotel. Travel, the way it was meant to be. © 2007 Stephen Yuen

The Hyatt lobby: I'm not in California any more.