A Welcome Trend

Health care costs in the United States had already begun to moderate years before President Obama came into office:

Adjusted for inflation, U.S. per-person spending on health care grew at an annual average rate of 2.1% between 2005 and 2010 compared with 4.3% in the five previous years and 3.2% in the five years before that. 

One explanation:

Americans are using less health care because they are being forced to pay more out of pocket. Indeed, the share of insured workers with deductibles of $1,000 or more rose to 31% in 2011 from 18% in 2008, Kaiser estimates. Indeed, the share of insured workers with deductibles of $1,000 or more rose to 31% in 2011 from 18% in 2008, Kaiser estimates. "A lot of people are saying: Do I really need this?" [Harvard economist David] Cutler says, who notes a distinct slowing in the pace of spending on CT scans, MRIs and other imaging.

I do not expect the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act to continue this welcome trend of slower cost growth. Whenever government becomes heavily involved in or imposes drastic change to a market---think, for example, of education, defense, housing, and alternative energy---costs accelerate.

I hope I am wrong, but I doubt it.