Apple: Reversing the Negativity

Google, Amazon, and most NASDAQ stocks have risen
over the past 12 months while AAPL has sunk.

Over the past year long-term Apple investors have had to endure a sinking feeling while the rest of the stock market has been partying on. Oceans of pixels have been devoted to explaining Apple's decline: innovation is a shadow of its former self, Samsung and Google are seizing the market for smartphones and tablets, margins are declining, and, of course, the visionary founder is gone. Those who aren't following the stock closely, however, may have missed the bottom.

Apple shares dipped below $400 in April and June but rose in July when earnings fell less than expected. On Tuesday, when legendary billionaire investor Carl Icahn tweeted that he had bought Apple, others piled in. [update - 8/16: Apple rose this week while the market declined--see graph below]

We still think that re-attaining the all-time high of $705 won't happen any time soon, but the entry of Carl Icahn has reversed the atmosphere of negativity. Mr. Icahn, besides being smart, has a reputation for being ruthless and greedy. His evaluation is devoid of sentiment, and, at the age of 77 his investment horizon isn't overly long-term. Right now his presence is good for the stock, but when he tweets that he's gotten out, look out below. (I'm now a subscriber to his Twitter feed.)

Apple popped this week while the market dropped.