Fortune Favors the Swift

Real estate markets move more slowly than equity markets, where transactions can close in a day. Once established, however, real estate trends often extend for many years. As we intimated three months ago the new tax act will eventually dampen California home prices.

high-end real estate will stop increasing and may even fall. The Tax Cut and Jobs Act reduces the deductions for state and local taxes and for mortgage interest. The elimination of these tax subsidies may well cool off the overheated real estate market in New York and California.

The WSJ confirms that the move out of high-tax states, already high, has accelerated.

some real-estate professionals say they are beginning to see early signs of an exodus to low-tax states.

“I’ve seen a huge increase in the number of [New York and New Jersey] clients who want to purchase in Palm Beach to establish residency in Florida,” says Chris Leavitt, director of luxury sales at Douglas Elliman Real Estate in Palm Beach. “And there has been a pickup since Jan. 1.”

To fellow Bay Area homeowners, if you are thinking about selling and moving out of California in the next 5-10 years, it's probably to your advantage to sell sooner than later. Supply should increase as other owners make the same decision, and buyers will dry up due to the loss of deductions for home ownership. In other words waiting a few years likely won't win a higher price.

Our neighbor a few doors down has listed her house (broker photo on right) for over $1 million, unimaginable ten years ago. Good for Paula.