The Joys of Almost Summer

Bill from Pittsburg, CA exults

While sports no longer provides the escape from reality that it once did, it still has the capacity to surprise. The surprise in this case occurred in the stands.

On Sunday an Oakland Athletics fan caught two consecutive foul balls. Commentators have opined that the odds against this event were one in a billion or one in a trillion.

At first blush, statistical analysis suggests those odds are wildly overstated. Here's a back of the envelope calculation: with a little over 15,000 in attendance, and assuming that 40 foul balls were hit into the stands during a game, the average fan has a 1 in 375 chance of catching a ball. The chance of getting two balls in the same game is one in 375 squared, about 141,000-to-1. Of course, the probabilities can be adjusted by seat placement--the upper decks in large stadiums get hardly any--but we're still a far cry from one in a billion.

If we layer in another filter, the odds of back-to-back balls landing in the same place must be at least 1 in 10,000. Now we're at 1 in 1.41 billion (141,000 x 10,000). OK, you can cheer now.

Another phenomenon is how much joy one derives from snagging a fly. Every guy is an excited little boy again when he catches a ball that costs about $30.



Female fans show their joy, too. This San Diego fan became an internet celebrity and received several marriage proposals due to her one minute of fame.