The Shoe Drops

Early detection of pregnancy will be more important (WSJ)

In 1973 nine men on the Supreme Court ruled 7-2 that there was a constitutional right to abortion in Roe v. Wade.

On June 24, 2022, six men and three women justices in a 6-3 decision overturned Roe in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, which challenged a 2018 Mississippi law:

Although the case before the court involved a 15-week ban, the overruling of Roe gives states broad latitude to regulate or prohibit abortion as they see fit. Many conservative-leaning states are poised to tighten access further, while some liberal ones have established permissive abortion regimes under state law. The decision could become a major issue in this year’s elections, as state and federal lawmakers look to position themselves in a post-Roe world.

Almost half the states have laws in place or at the ready to curtail or outlaw abortion, while others have laws that would preserve its legality. Questions on whether and how to limit abortions are expected to continue roiling state legislative debates.

The ruling, one of the most consequential in modern memory, marked a rare instance in which the court reversed itself to eliminate a constitutional right that it had previously created.

The decision also is a defining moment for a Supreme Court that is more conservative than it has been in many decades, a shift in legal thinking made possible after President Donald Trump placed three justices on the court. Two of them succeeded justices who voted to affirm abortion rights.

In anticipation of the ruling, several states have passed laws limiting or banning the procedure, and 13 states have so-called trigger laws on their books that called for prohibiting abortion if Roe were overruled. Clinics in conservative states have been preparing for possible closure, while facilities in more liberal areas have been getting ready for a potentially heavy influx of patients from other states.

The political battle now shifts to the States, which have a patchwork of laws ranging from a a near-total ban on abortion to allowing it up to childbirth. We discussed the map on May 3rd.

Just a few comments on this decision, which will undoubtedly cause millions of words to be generated in the months to come:

The leak of the draft opinion on May 2nd, whatever the leaker's motive, has had the benefit of removing the shock of surprise. Organizations, governments, and interest groups have had time to prepare for the after-effects of Dobbs.

The majority of Americans, IMHO, remain somewhere between the extreme positions and do not relish the prospect of abortion once again elevating itself to the top of national discussions.

The counter-argument is that, unlike other subjects, abortion never really went away after Roe; we won't like the heat for the next 3-5 years, but maybe things will cool off after legislators pass or reaffirm laws post-Dobbs, the people react, and the laws are adjusted again.

My very long view is that technology will defuse the downsides of pregnancy, childbirth, and child care that are the principal reasons for having an abortion. Eventually there will be a societal consensus that there should be more help given to mothers, and advances in medical science up to and including growing fetuses in the lab will eliminate the physical burden of pregnancy. In a hundred years people will wonder what the fuss was about.