Goldilocks Weather

1/2/24: the snowpack near Tahoe (Mercury photo)

Years of drought were alleviated by the 2022-2023 wet winter, so a once-dreaded headline is actually good news:

Sierra Nevada snowpack at lowest level in 10 years [bold added]

California’s statewide Sierra Nevada snowpack — the source of nearly one-third of the state’s water supply — is at its lowest level in a decade, a major turnaround from last year when huge storms ended a three-year drought and buried ski resorts in massive amounts of snow.

On Tuesday, the snowpack was just 25% of its historical average for Jan. 2. A year ago on the same date, it was a staggering 185% of normal. The last time there was less snow at the beginning of a new year was 2014 when it stood at just 19%.

The lack of snow so far this year is due to fewer big storms hitting the state than normal. And when storms have come, they have been warmer, depositing snow mostly at higher elevations.

But the meager totals so far across California’s pre-eminent mountain range are not a cause to panic, experts say.

Not only are there three months left in the winter season, which typically ends in early April, but last year’s soaking winter filled reservoirs across the state. That “money in the bank” means chances are low that there will be significant urban water restrictions across the state this summer, even if the winter ends with below-average snow and rain.

Why a low snowpack is good news in 2023-2024:

Heading into the winter, many water managers were concerned that if huge atmospheric river storms pounded the state in November and December, that could have caused major flooding because there was less space left in the big reservoirs than in most years to catch runoff

We got rain when we needed it, and now dryness when that was called for.

That fortunate sequence was rare even in the supposedly halcyonic 19th century. (See the Great Flood of 1862, and the three severe droughts of the 19th century.)

If global warming causes weather events (as all the smart people believe), I'll have more of the same.

Note: But don't be stupid. Build more water storage like the already-approved Sites Reservoir.