Sorry, Alex, Your Time Has Passed

Greg Cosell bears resemblance to Uncle Howard.

Football analyst and NFL Films producer Greg Cosell said on KNBR this morning that there is no question that the San Francisco 49ers think Colin Kaepernick today is a better quarterback than Alex Smith:

My guess is for people in the business this is not even a controversy. One guy is a significantly better passer than the other guy. To me there is not really an issue here. Kaepernick could obviously have a bad game anytime, because he's only played two games and he's inexperienced and there are things he hasn't seen.

Could he have a poor game? Sure. But you're talking about dimensions in a pass game. One guy has every dimension you want throwing the football, the other guy is limited. This is really not news.

Jim Harbaugh gets the job as the 49ers head coach. I guarantee that one of the first things he did in his preparation was he probably watched almost every throw Alex Smith has made in his career. That's what coaches do---they're nuts. This is the kind of stuff they do. So after doing that they draft Colin Kaepernick in the second round. That's step one.

Step two is they play a season. They play a season in which Alex Smith throws the fewest passes of any 16-game starter.

Step three: they try to get Peyton Manning in the off-season. Everything tells you that they believe Colin Kaepernick ultimately---and they didn't know if he could play until he played, but they know what his skill-set is, they know what his quarterback attributes are in relation to Alex Smith's quarterback attributes---Colin Kaepernick has the better quarterback attributes.

Nearly everyone feels bad for Alex Smith, who has finally become a good NFL quarterback who had a decent shot at winning the Super Bowl. Barring injury or a series of horrendous performances by Colin Kaepernick he won't get that chance with the 49ers.  © 2012 Stephen Yuen

Body language says it all: Alex and Colin (AP photo via SFGate)

'Tis the Season

Gift-giving, card-writing, tree-lighting, online-shopping.....the latest addition to the holiday list is delivery-scamming.

Do NOT click on the link to "Get Postal Receipt". (No, your humble observer has become less trusting in his old age and did not click.)

Maybe it's a good thing that Proposition 34 (ending the death penalty in California) didn't pass. I voted for it, but have reconsidered. A quick, painless death is too good for these predators... © 2012 Stephen Yuen

Not Titletown (Yet)

The San Francisco professional sports picture is markedly brighter than it was six years ago, when each of its major sports franchises had a losing record. The Giants have won two World Series in the past three years, and the 49ers are considered one of the favorites for this year's Super Bowl.

While the 49ers' success and their burgeoning quarterback controversy are the local focus of attention, the Golden State Warriors are quietly moving toward respectability. 20-year-old Harrison Barnes signaled that the winter months need not represent the cruelest season when he performed an electrifying dunk over 6'11" Timberwolves center Nikola Pekovic.



Harrison Barnes, Stephen Curry, and other young players will be in the prime of their careers when the Warriors move to San Francisco. By 2017 San Francisco could add Titletown to the many other names (most of them complimentary) by which it is known. © 2012 Stephen Yuen

Business: the Unforgivable Sin

Apple's stock seems to have bottomed, perhaps temporarily, at $525.62 on November 15th. Since then it's risen 11%. Knowledge of the Maps debacle (Apple discontinued Google Maps on September 19th) has not dampened enthusiasm for Apple's products:

In the past 12 weeks, Apple’s mobile operating system has grown to now make up 48.1 percent of the U.S. smartphone market, just ahead of [Google's] Android at 46.7 percent.

Despite the fact that customers have shrugged off the Maps problem, Apple's management hasn't been as forgiving:

Apple Inc. pushed out an executive responsible for its mapping service about two weeks ago, according to people briefed on the matter, as the company tries to recover from the map service's rocky debut.

The vice president, Richard Williamson, had been a senior leader with Apple's iOS mobile software team. During his tenure, he oversaw a variety of services, including at one point Apple's voice-activated assistant Siri.

Mr. Williamson's boss, iPhone software chief Scott Forstall, was pushed out of Apple in October, also on the heels of the maps imbroglio.

Both Scott Forstall and Richard Williamson have been heavily involved in some of Apple's most important successes over the past ten years. Nevertheless, in the top echelons of business, like in sports and entertainment, the key question is "what have you done for me lately?" Both are gone because they committed the one unforgivable sin--no, not failure, but embarrassing their employer. © 2012 Stephen Yuen

Cliff Notes

After November 6th the indices dropped 5% but since have recovered most of their losses.

It's a reasonable supposition that the November 6 election results were disappointing to the investors who hoped that a Romney victory would continue the favorable tax treatment afforded to long-term capital gains and dividends. Instead, avoidance of the "fiscal cliff" will now probably entail higher tax rates on capital gains (from November 11th: "the prospect of higher taxes on capital gains is prompting many to unload some of their winning stocks") and possibly much higher rates on dividends.

Unsurprisingly, the equity indices fell for the ten days following the election but have since rebounded. The likely causes of this brightening outlook are favorable noises emanating from both sides in Washington, plus signs that growth has not stalled in China.

Meanwhile, what is the small investor to do? One great feature of capital gains is that the timing of income recognition is largely under the control of the individual taxpayer. Barring situations where one has to sell, it's not unusual to hold well-chosen stocks for many years. The patient investor may be able to hold off realizing gains for four more years, when the Republicans stand an excellent chance of capturing not only the Presidency but Congress as well (remember how everyone was so sick of George W. Bush after eight years that the Democrats didn't really need a platform in 2008? I wouldn't bet against the country feeling the same way about Barack Obama and the Democratic Party in 2016.)

Another strategy is to manage one's financial affairs to keep income below the levels where higher rates kick in. For example, one spouse may now choose to quit a good-paying job to stay at home with the kids and fill the traditional role of the wife to an executive (your humble observer is personally acquainted with many professional women and men who have opted for less money, less stress, and more time with their families).  Staying home is not a new phenomenon, but higher tax rates may finally sway some on-the-edge dual-income couples.

For gains on capital assets that are not securities there is every indication that tax-planning deferral tools, such as Section 1031 exchanges, will continue in their present form. While the tax regime will be a bit more unfavorable, take heart, investors, history shows that you will figure out ways to adapt.  Which means, of course, that the higher receipts that the government will collect will be far short of what higher-tax advocates will expect, a surprise to no one but themselves. © 2012 Stephen Yuen

Rejuvenation

Nine months ago

Today

My old college car is looking better after sanding and painting.  It still needs a lot of work; dozens of parts are unusable and need to be replaced.

Rejuvenation hasn't been quick or easy, but at least it's possible. Unfortunately, the same can't be said about the car's owner....

Why Does Senator Daniel Inouye Have Secret Service Protection?

Two old pros who worked on Watergate in 1974.

Answered via other questions and answers:

Q: who's next in the line of Presidential succession, after the Vice President and Speaker of the House?

A: The president pro tempore of the Senate.

Q: What does the president pro tempore do?

A: He* presides over the Senate in the absence of the Vice President, is the Senate's legal recipient of various reports, and serves on commissions and boards. (Obviously, the duties are largely ceremonial, but the office is third in line and it is in the Constitution.)

*Male singular pronoun used for convenience only.

Q: How is he elected?

A: "Since the mid-20th century, it has been traditional for the Senate to elect the senior member of the majority party as president pro tempore."

Q: Who is the current president pro tempore?

A. Daniel K. Inouye, 88-year-old Democratic Senator from Hawaii. We have posted about Medal of Honor recipient Senator Dan before (here and here).

Two sons of Hawaii grew up in the same middle-class neighborhood, albeit four decades apart, and are now important enough to be protected round-the-clock by the Secret Service. Last question: who would ever have believed it? © 2012 Stephen Yuen

The Less-Trafficked Road

Amazon customers can pick up their deliveries at
some Radio Shack locations in the Bay Area.

The shopping center lots were full on Black Friday, so we headed to downtown San Mateo where there was only light traffic. We stopped at the 4th Avenue Radio Shack (disclosure: I own shares of RSH) and picked up some batteries and a $40 label-maker that was on sale for $10.

Radio Shack has been struggling like many other chains, and it's questionable whether it will survive the retail shake-out. One glimmer of hope is that Radio Shack can partner with companies who will view its 4,000+ North American locations as an exploitable asset. It's a dicey proposition, but perhaps the company's only path to survival.

Happy Thanksgiving

We sound like a broken record (what's that, grampa?) as we list the things that we have to be thankful for: our family, our health, our vocations and avocations, and our friends. But what we are most grateful for is that we were born in the greatest country in the world, where every person has the opportunity to seek his calling or worship as she pleases or speak his mind without fear of imprisonment.

On other days we can be complaining and critical, but not today. Cultivate the attitude of gratitude. Happy Thanksgiving!

Once More Into the Brine, Dear Fowl

It only took a few minutes of preparation to boil the brine solution (salt, sugar, vegetables, onion, garlic, and herbs). After cooling overnight on the stove, it was dumped into a bucket containing the 20-lb. turkey and three trays of ice cubes.

The turkey will be stored in the fridge until tomorrow morning, when it will be popped into the oven. It should be ready by halftime of the Cowboys game. Easy as (pumpkin) pie.

No Obvious Catalyst

Apple shares have given investors a wild ride over the past five days. The stock had continued its downward drift since September , then reversed course mid-Friday. On Monday it rose $38.05 (7.2%) from the previous week's close.

Sharp price adjustments are to be expected after new product announcements and earnings releases, but there was no obvious catalyst for Monday's action. Down 25% from the September high to last Friday's low, then snapping back almost 12%. If one is an Apple investor, one has grown accustomed to rapid price increases, and now decreases.

As Nassim Nicholas Taleb says, volatility is here to stay, and we may as well learn to love it.

For Want of a $10 Part

I didn't want our hot-waterless weekend to be extended any longer (see post below) and promptly called Noritz early this morning. It turned out that UPS was the culprit; despite the Saturday label the replacement part had sat in UPS' Anaheim distribution center over the weekend. Noritz refunded the surcharge for Saturday delivery, small compensation for the inconvenience of cold-water bathing.

I've heard other people complain about UPS and will use FedEx if there's a choice. Such anecdotal evidence is unscientific to be sure, but isn't word-of-mouth how many of us pick doctors, car repairmen, and other service providers?

The package arrived at 10 a.m., and Kevin was here by noon. It took him ten minutes to replace the igniter. He charged me only for the two hours that he spent diagnosing the problem on Friday. I told him I'll call him again if I need a plumber but I hoped I wouldn't have to. He laughed and was on his way.

City Boy

The igniter is the square black object in the middle

Indoor plumbing is one of modern life's necessities; right behind it in importance is HOT running water. Our four-year-old tankless water heater stopped heating on Friday. An emergency call to a local plumber diagnosed the problem as a faulty igniter. The manufacturer promised to send it overnight so we could be up and running on Saturday. Alas, the package didn't come.

We've made do with showers at the gym and boiling pots of water for lower-volume needs. The dishes and laundry are piling up. Overnight lows are in the 40's, and very cold water greets us in the morning. Monday, and the replacement igniter, can't come soon enough.

Peace, Just Not There

The Middle East once again threatens to boil over: Israel, Egypt, Syria, Libya, Iran, Iraq---there's no conflict-free zone. Elsewhere, however, there are nascent signs of peace.

Google and Apple are talking about resolving all litigation [bold added]:

The companies have been exchanging proposals on using binding arbitration to reach a licensing agreement over patents that are essential to comply with industry standards on how phones operate. Such an agreement could lead to a global settlement of all of their patent disputes, Apple said in a Nov. 15 filing.

Stocks rose on Friday after signals from both parties that the impasse over the "fiscal cliff" may be resolved:

the top lawmakers emerged from the White House meeting, which lasted more than an hour, with uncharacteristic optimism that they would reach a deal in coming weeks. [snip]

Leaders from both parties and aides to Mr. Obama said they agreed to make concessions to achieve a deal. For Democrats, that included a willingness to curb entitlement programs, such as Medicare. For Republicans that meant a willingness to raise tax revenue.

Of course, the devil is in the details, but at this point any deal is better than no deal. Let's hope that the emotion surrounding Thanksgiving next week is one of gratitude, not fear or disappointment. © 2012 Stephen Yuen

Almost the Apocalypse

It will be the end of the world when someone actually meets the starting bid (or more!).

Of course, if Twinkies are selling for anything close to this price, then Hostess wouldn't be going out of business:

Hostess Brands Inc., the 85-year-old maker of iconic treats such as Twinkies, Ding Dongs and pantry staples like Wonder Bread, on Friday said it would go out of business after failing to reach agreement on wage and pension cuts with its bakers' union.

Like works of art whose value appreciates when the artist dies, Twinkies prices might well follow a similar path (although $8,000 is a mite ambitious). At least with all the preservatives used in their manufacture, an investor will have years to make his speculation pay off. © 2012 Stephen Yuen