London: What's Going On?

The news feed is filled with stories about the decline of London and the UK in general. If reports are to be believed, hordes of unassimilated migrants go unpunished for rape, murder, and other mayhem while armed police arrest comedians for tweets and residents for waving the Union Jack. Violence against Jews is causing Jewish citizens to emigrate from the U.K. If Britain is collapsing, what are we to make of this?

London: new towers springing next to the old (Zuma/WSJ)

Apple and Citadel Fuel London Office Boom

The office market in London’s ancient commercial quarter—known simply as the City—is booming, fueled by an influx of American law and finance firms, a growing tech scene and demand for the swankiest spaces to lure workers back to their desks.

The boom shows Britain’s finance industry has defied fears of a post-Brexit exodus. Despite losing some business and financiers after the U.K. left the European Union, London still hosts by far the biggest banking and capital markets in Europe.

The buoyant market also reflects the district’s broadening appeal. For decades the area was a bastion of finance and insurance. Now tech companies—including Apple, TikTok and several thousand smaller firms—vie for space, drawn in part by the prospect of easy access to potential investors.

“London, as a location for international businesses, seems to have really proven its resilience,” said Martin Towns, who runs M&G’s $43 billion real-estate business. “The City has a renewed level of vibrancy.”

Finance companies and Big Tech are not known for taking extraordinary risks, so what's going on with the $billions pouring into London? As an Anglophile, I hope that fears of its death have been greatly exaggerated.

Number One Yet Again

(Photo by Tama/Getty/WSJ)

California is first in the nation in categories good and bad (e.g., wealth, business startups, agriculture, homelessness, technology, air pollution), but few people are probably aware that it is the leader in cigarette smuggling:

More than half of cigarettes smoked in California—53%, to be exact—evaded or avoided the state’s cigarette mandates and levies. That’s a stunning rise from a decade ago, when 28% of cigarettes were smuggled into the Golden State. It also takes California past New York, where we estimate that 52% of cigarettes are smuggled.

What changed? A 2017 California law raised the cigarette tax from 87 cents to $2.87, which gave smokers an incentive to find cheaper options—which out-of-state and transnational smugglers were more than happy to provide. California then banned menthol cigarettes, which make up roughly a third of the nation’s cigarette sales, along with other flavored tobacco products, in late 2022.

...The Golden State’s policies also encourage public corruption. Last year a former prison guard was indicted for his role smuggling tobacco into Solano State Prison, near Sacramento. The state struggles to keep tobacco, narcotics and cellphones out of prisons. What makes its leaders think they can keep a tidal wave of illicit cigarettes and other nicotine products out of the hands of nonincarcerated Californians? California has many major ports, bonded warehouses, the Mexican border, and nearby states with lower tax rates, all of which can be exploited by smugglers to save or make a buck at California’s expense.

Lower-taxed states are a major source of cigarettes to high-taxed ones. Wyoming’s smuggling export rate is 55%. Idaho’s is 28%. In other words, for every 100 cigarettes consumed in those states, an additional 55 and 28, respectively, are bought there and smuggled into other states. It doesn’t strain credulity to suggest that many of these lower-taxed smokes end up in California.

California politicians and their staff don't seem to have much knowledge about how incentives influence behavior. Until we elect more people who have spent time earning a living in the real world--and I don't mean lawyers and educators--our state and local governments will keep passing well-intentioned laws that have no chance of success.

Mortgage Occupancy Fraud

The top of the mortgage application requires the borrower to declare
the loan's purpose (primary residence, secondary residence, investment).

The Trump Administration is investigating three outspoken political opponents, California Senator Adam Schiff, New York Attorney General Letitia James, and Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook, for the possible crime of mortgage occupancy fraud. Claiming that a loan is for one's principal residence (versus a vacation home or a rental property) allows the borrower to have both a lower interest rate and a lower down payment, and it has been alleged that these three knowingly lied on their applications. [bold added]

Lenders typically offer better terms on mortgages for a primary residence, and let people borrow more than they would for a second home or an investment property they may rent out.

For a primary residence, for instance, the down payment can be as low as 3% to 5%. For a second home, typically 10% to 20%. For an investment property, it is usually at least 20%.

Mortgage rates for a second home are also typically 0.25% to 0.50% higher than the rate for a primary residence, said Garth Graham, senior partner at Stratmor Group, a mortgage advisory firm. The rate is usually 0.50% to 0.75% higher for an investment property.

The average rate on the standard 30-year fixed mortgage was recently 6.58%.

Another reason people might want to claim a second home as a primary residence: Nonowner occupied properties often have higher property taxes and higher insurance premiums than primary residences, said Jon Goodman, a lawyer with a specialty in mortgage fraud.

The crime is difficult to prove, partly because it is allowable to apply for a loan on a new primary residence while living elsewhere (for example, I want to move to a new purchased condo in Arizona first, then sell my California home), and circumstances may have changed (I don't like my retirement choice after all and will continue to live in my current home). In the latter case, the bank will not normally change the loan terms as long as I continue to make the payments.

Mortgage occupancy fraud is rarely prosecuted, and most real estate participants know this. Checking the wrong box can save thousands of dollars each year. Doing the right thing when there is hardly any penalty for doing the wrong thing and it's highly unlikely that one will get caught anyway is a true test of character.

Monkey Business

Having collected its ransom, a macaque leaves
the prescription sunglasses behind.

Criminals have been identified, the evidence against them is irrefutable, but they're immune from prosecution.

At a cliff-side temple on the tropical island of Bali, an unexpected group of criminals is running one of the world’s most sophisticated scam operations.

Every week, they steal dozens of phones, wallets and other valuables from tourists in broad daylight and exchange them for handsome rewards. It’s been going on for decades and nobody’s been able to stop it.

The culprits? Long-tailed macaques....

On the southern tip of the Indonesian vacation hot spot known for its beaches, tourists flock to Uluwatu Temple for traditional fire dance shows and panoramic views at sunset with the Indian Ocean crashing below. The Balinese Hindu site dates back to at least the 11th century and the roughly 600 monkeys that inhabit it are considered by locals to be sacred guardians of the temple.

Primate researchers have found that the macaques steal belongings to use as currency to trade with humans for food. Some monkeys can distinguish between objects we highly value (smartphones, prescription glasses, wallets) and those we don’t (hats, flip flops, hair clips)—and will barter accordingly, according to a University of Lethbridge team that spent years filming the macaques and analyzing hundreds of hours of footage.

Monkey handlers ("pawang") help negotiate the return of the stolen property.

They offer fruits such as bananas, mangos, rambutan and mangosteen in exchange for the stolen items. In rare cases, they use raw chicken eggs, highly coveted by the monkeys.

If your humble blogger were ever to visit Bali, he would flaunt packages of snacks (though the authorities disapprove) to divert the monkeys' attentions from more valuable items. To the simian mind a potato chip is prized over the silicon kind, and on Bali it's hard to disagree.

The Fentanyl Fold

(photo by Stephen Lam/The Chronicle)

That fentanyl is a modern-day plague is a well known fact--in 2024 San Francisco had 635 drug overdose deaths, of which over 70% included fentanyl--yet much remains unknown about the deadly opioid. For example, why do fentanyl users contort themselves into an unusual standing position?

Dr. Daniel Ciccarone, UCSF professor of addiction medicine, said what he calls the “nod” is a common side effect of opioid use.

“It’s not much different than the experience of being in a boring lecture and falling asleep,” Ciccarone said. “It’s a version of losing consciousness. But not to the point of losing consciousness –– they’re still conscious.”

These nods have always happened to varying degrees with other opioids, particularly heroin. The nods with fentanyl, however, seem to be more extreme, Ciccarone noted. And it’s often a sign that a person has taken too strong a dose, he said.

“What you’re witnessing is the balance point between passing out –– when you lose all muscular control and are on the floor –– versus some small remnant of consciousness that is keeping the person upright,” he said.

Fentanyl, which can be up to 50 times more potent than heroin, can induce this “low point of consciousness,” which is believed to be euphoric, Ciccarone said.

“As opioids get stronger, the nod gets deeper,” he said. “The dials are just being turned down. Consciousness, breathing, muscular control are going down … and this is just one of the visible signs of it.”

Repeated positioning in the fold can itself cause severe health problems:

UCSF orthopedic surgeon Dr. Alexos Theologis, who specializes in the spine, said some people probably slump because of muscular issues. But going into the fentanyl fold position too much over a long period of time can cause severe damage to the spine, neck and back muscles, he added.

Theologis said there’s nothing in the use of fentanyl itself that will cause people spinal problems, but such prolonged folding can lead to chronic issues.

“The postures I see … are very, very disabling,” Theologis said. “We have studies that demonstrate these postural changes (are) … among the most disabling medical conditions anybody can experience. It’s similar to cancer treatment and pain associated with cancer.”

Whatever one may think of President Trump, his stated goal to eliminate fentanyl from the streets of big cities will help the most wretched who live among us.

Northern California: Joining the Party

Burning car in Oakland after ICE protests (Fanjoy/Chron)

Not to be outdone by its bigger brother to the South, Northern California had its own anti-ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) demonstrations, looting, and property damage.

A crowd ransacked a Shiekh shoe store near International Boulevard and 34th Avenue on Tuesday night, according to videos reported by KTVU and police. A car parked on 34th Avenue was set on fire, and trash cans on the sidewalk were knocked over, spilling garbage onto the sidewalk.

The looting and vehicle fire occurred after a peaceful protest denouncing arrests of immigrants by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers had ended, according to businesses owners and Fruitvale residents.

Oakland burgled shoe store after ICE protests (Flores/Chron)

The saving grace is that, unlike L.A., there's no suggestion that the looting and property damage were instigated by the demonstrators or actions by the Trump Administration.

It's sad, however, that there are people who will always use mass gatherings (protests, sports championships, cultural celebrations) as an excuse to commit crimes when police are occupied.

Prisoner of Trump's World

Alcatraz, 2006

Its prison closed in 1963, and Alcatraz has since become one of the most popular tourist attractions in the Bay Area.

Visitors can wander through the Gardens of Alcatraz, peruse the Big Lockup Exhibit, or take a night tour where one can “enjoy the beauty of a sunset silhouetting the Golden Gate Bridge” as well as “experience a cell door demonstration.” Over the years, Boy Scouts have clamored to hold overnight campouts in the infamous isolation cells of D Block. Athletes compete in prison-themed events, including a canoe race circling the island and the Escape from Alcatraz triathlon.

Donald Trump demonstrated the power of the Presidency's "bully pulpit" when he called for the Alcatraz prison to be rebuilt and re-opened.

Calling the prison a “symbol of law and order,” Trump on Sunday said he is directing the Bureau of Prisons and other federal agencies to rebuild Alcatraz to house “America’s most ruthless and violent offenders.”

However, the reasons for its original closure haven't gone away.

It operated as a maximum-security facility for nearly three decades, closing in 1963 because of millions of dollars in needed repairs and the expense of hauling all supplies, including fresh water, to the facility by boat. Alcatraz was tiny by the standards of most federal facilities, never housing more than around 275 prisoners.

President Trump is too much of a cost-benefit realist to take his own proposal seriously. IMHO, he did it to provoke Democrats and direct their attention from his other policies. [bold added]

Democratic state Sen. Scott Wiener of San Francisco...call[ed] the president’s idea “unhinged and terrifying.” Trump wants to turn Alcatraz “into a domestic gulag in the middle of San Francisco Bay,” Wiener wrote on social media.

Some Democratic strategists recognize the President's maneuver as a distraction. [bold added]

But Trump’s Sunday evening social media post about the idea follows a well-honed strategy that the president has been deploying for years. He makes outlandish claims and goads the media into writing stories debunking or criticizing them, which focuses the national conversation around his preferred topics.

Centering the news cycle around the idea that he wants to crack down on crime could keep Americans’ focus on an issue that’s politically advantageous to him, experts say.

“He picks outlandish topics that he thinks will be popular with the general public, but unpopular with Democrats and maybe the educated Democratic elites, in the hopes that they criticize it,” said Gabriel Lenz, a political science professor at UC Berkeley. “That keeps an idea, an issue, a topic where he thinks he has an advantage in the news.”...

Longtime Trump adviser Steve Bannon calls this strategy “flood the zone.” It’s how Trump grows his popularity among everyday Americans, Bannon says.

"Flooding the zone" is a term that originated in sports. For example, if a team sends enough pass receivers to an area, it becomes impossible for the other team to cover each one.

Calls by wiser heads to ignore the Alcatraz distraction fall on deaf ears, because as Scott Wiener has demonstrated, some Democrats can't help themselves.

Sequel for Guys Like Me

The Accountant 2: Braxton and Christian bonding (Page/WSJ)

We first saw the 2016 film, The Accountant, in 2017. Ben Affleck plays the titular character, Christian Wolff, a weapons and martial arts specialist who is also a financial wizard. He is the first person who underworld magnates call when they have an "accounting" problem and legitimate auditors can't be brought in. Sometimes, however, his clients violate Wolff's personal code of ethics and he employs his lethal skills, as well as leaks to law enforcement, to enforce that code.

Another aspect to the character is that he is severely autistic--Rainman meets Rambo--which makes for some amusing and awkward moments as the super-intelligent Wolff has trouble figuring out the basics of social interactions. The Accountant ended, after the obligatory victory over bad guys, with Christian Wolff reconciling with his normal (neurotypical) and equally lethal brother Braxton.

After nine years the sequel, The Accountant 2, has been released:

“The Accountant 2” is a rarity. It’s a sequel that blows by the respectable original, evolving into something simultaneously smarter and sillier, more grounded and much more fun.

Ben Affleck is back — finally, in his best role in years (along with his 2020 turn in “The Way Back”) — as Christian Wolff, an awkward, high-functioning autistic bean counter for bad guys who is secretly a super killer. He and his estranged brother Braxton (Jon Bernthal), a slick and successful assassin, reunite when Chris is summoned to help investigate the murder of a former U.S. Treasury agent he used to feed tips to on crimes.

...Affleck and Bernthal’s portrayals are miles ahead of where they were in the first film. Bernthal seems to benefit from revisiting roles years later, as evident in his convincing return as the Punisher in the current “Daredevil: Born Again” series. This time around, Braxton is informed by fraternal warmth and goofiness. The brothers’ relationship feels settled into, and it’s a pleasure to watch. When Braxton is about to invite some women into their motel room, he admonishes the stiff Chris, “Just go stand over there. Don’t be scary.”

Affleck’s Chris is much more detailed and lived in now. Before, physical and vocal inconsistencies could pop out, but the Berkeley-born actor is in the groove here. There’s increased precision in Chris’ neurodivergent behaviors and vocal mannerisms (perhaps credit is due to the film’s neurodiversity consultant, “Autism: The Musical” star Elaine Hall). Affleck appears more relaxed, so the character is more alive.

Throughout your humble CPA's life accountants have been mocked for their introversion and inflexibility. Finally there was a movie with an accounting protagonist that was popular enough to have a sequel (and perhaps a series!) for guys like me.

Elon Musk Defends his Actions at the U.S. Treasury

Elon Musk describes the basic omissions the DOGE team has found in the payments system at Treasury. The procedures and information that are missing are essential to the accounting operations of even small businesses--just ask any bookkeeper who uses Quicken.

But I, for one, am open to hearing a response from someone in the current financial chain-of-command. For example, one explanation that the system actually works is that the account-code information is contained in another payables subsystem that isn't upwardly linked. (I doubt that, frankly, because the DOGE kids are supposedly mapping all the systems and their functions, but they could have missed something.)

Meanwhile, until a plausible reason is provided, the benefit of Elon and his boys continuing their work far far outweighs the risk that a few of them will go rogue and sell Social Security numbers to crooks.

To be clear, what the @DOGE team and @USTreasury have jointly agreed makes sense is the following:

- Require that all outgoing government payments have a payment categorization code, which is necessary in order to pass financial audits. This is frequently left blank, making…

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 8, 2025

The full text:

To be clear, what the @DOGE team and @USTreasury have jointly agreed makes sense is the following:

- Require that all outgoing government payments have a payment categorization code, which is necessary in order to pass financial audits. This is frequently left blank, making audits almost impossible.

- All payments must also include a rationale for the payment in the comment field, which is currently left blank. Importantly, we are not yet applying ANY judgment to this rationale, but simply requiring that SOME attempt be made to explain the payment more than NOTHING!

- The DO-NOT-PAY list of entities known to be fraudulent or people who are dead or are probable fronts for terrorist organizations or do not match Congressional appropriations must actually be implemented and not ignored. Also, it can currently take up to a year to get on this list, which is far too long. This list should be updated at least weekly, if not daily.

The above super obvious and necessary changes are being implemented by existing, long-time career government employees, not anyone from @DOGE. It is ridiculous that these changes didn’t exist already!

Yesterday, I was told that there are currently over $100B/year of entitlements payments to individuals with no SSN or even a temporary ID number. If accurate, this is extremely suspicious.

When I asked if anyone at Treasury had a rough guess for what percentage of that number is unequivocal and obvious fraud, the consensus in the room was about half, so $50B/year or $1B/week!!

This is utterly insane and must be addressed immediately.

Property Crime: the Zeitgeist is Changing

There have been two "home invasion" robberies in Foster City in the past five years. Before 2019 your humble blogger remembers that there was another one, the victims being an Asian family. Asians are reputed to keep above-average amounts of cash, jewelry, gold and other valuables in their homes.

When home invasions were first reported decades ago, both perpetrators and victims were of Asian descent, especially since the youthful criminal gangs knew which houses to hit. The knowledge that Asian homes are ripe targets has spread to crime rings of other ethnicities.

Some of the stash recovered (SJ police/Mercury News)

Headline: San Jose--Police arrest three suspects who allegedly stole $1 million in jewelry, cash from Asian families in South Bay.[bold added]

Authorities on Wednesday announced a joint law-enforcement operation that netted the arrests of three suspects who together allegedly stole about $1 million worth of jewelry, designer purses and cash by targeting Asian families living in the South Bay.

The three men struck homes in San Jose, Cupertino, Saratoga, Campbell and Mountain View starting in June 2024, stealing at least 700 items across nearly 80 separate burglaries, San Jose police Chief Paul Joseph said at a news conference. Officials expect the number of robberies associated with this burglary ring to increase as they connect unsolved cases to the suspects...

The three suspects were identified as 25-year-old Alberto Ibarra Vallejo, 28-year-old Gonzalo Valencia Ramos and 46-year-old Jaime Martinez Arroyo. They were arrested Jan. 16 by SJPD officers with the assistance of the Stockton Police SWAT Team, Joseph said; the suspects are residents of Stockton, Hayward and French Camp, he added.

In the arrest operation, authorities uncovered evidence, including hundreds of jewelry pieces, foreign currency, family heirlooms, luxury watches and purses, Joseph said. They also found five firearms, Joseph said, adding that at least three were confirmed to have been stolen...

Santa Clara County District Attorney Jeff Rosen said that his office is pursuing the “most serious criminal charges” for the three suspects, adding that they are already facing 72 felony counts of burglary. Rosen dropped the thick complaint packet on the podium with a thud to illustrate “the weight and the seriousness of the crimes that these individuals committed,” he said.

Authorities also said they will seek hate crime enhancements for the suspects’ sentencing because they targeted AAPI communities...

Jail records showed all three suspects in custody Thursday on a no-bail status, with a court date set for Feb. 3.

The suspects are charged with 72 felony counts and have been held without bail. They may also be charged with a hate crime because the victims are Asian while they are not.

Note that there have been no reports of injuries, yet the suspects have had the book (so heavy that it lands with a "thud"!) thrown at them for property crimes. The woke doctrine that property is unimportant appears to be repudiated. I wonder what (or who) has changed the zeitgeist?

Michelin-star Chef Gives Up on SF

Peter Hemsley prepares a dry-aged blue
fin tuna steak (Lea Suzuki/The Chronicle)

Michelin Award-winning chef Peter Hemsley thought that he could both succeed in business and help revive San Francisco's South-of-Market area. He has given up. [bold added]

Less than two years after Aphotic opened and drew acclaim in San Francisco, the fine dining restaurant will close.

Aphotic, which won a Michelin star in its first year of operation, announced on Instagram that it will close on Dec. 21. Chef Peter Hemsley said despite the accolades, the restaurant’s location at 816 Folsom St. in SoMa proved challenging.

“The fact that we all did this at the ugly butt end of a desolate convention center suck hole in the post-panny apocalypse, is nothing short of a small miracle,” he wrote. “And I believe in miracles — I have to as a chef and restaurant owner in these times. But I also know that miracles do not last forever.⁠”

In an email to the Chronicle, he wrote, “The energy may come back to that part of town in the years to come, but it will be a long and painful battle. Longer, much longer than anyone expected.”

Aphotic's dry-aged blue fin tuna steak (Suzuki/Chronicle)

Hemsley, an alum of the Michelin-starred Quince, opened the moody Aphotic last March in the former home of Palette, his combination art gallery-fine dining restaurant. It served an ambitious, seafood-focused tasting menu and standout cocktails. Aphotic is one of the rare restaurants with a license that allows it to distill its own spirits, producing a seaweed-infused gin...

In an email to supporters announcing the closure, Hemsley wrote that he “stayed put where I am because I was always charmed by the architecture of my restaurant, and the potential it had as an exceptional dining venue from within." Yet he said he increasingly felt the city failed to address post-pandemic challenges in Aphotic’s neighborhood. In the message, he cited “fear of parking on the street due to broken windows,” construction and other issues, coupled with the rising costs of doing business.

Mayor Breed and other San Francisco boosters are trying to make us believe that San Francisco has put the worst of homelessness, crime, open-air drug use, and general filth behind it.

To get at the truth watch the behavior of Peter Hemsley and other business people who have their own money on the line.

Another Reason the Chicken Crossed the Road

Police Lt. Jonathan Ozol in a SF crosswalk

San Francisco police have a new crime-fighting initiative. They're tagging drivers who don't stop for officers who are dressed as inflatable chickens.

On Monday morning [Sept. 16], San Francisco police Lt. Jonathan Ozol wore a flamboyant, inflatable chicken costume as he attempted to navigate a crosswalk on Alemany Boulevard near the intersection of Rousseau Street. The purpose of the exercise was to issue tickets to drivers who flouted state law by not yielding to a pedestrian like Ozol as he attempted to cross. Quite a few drivers failed that test.

The ostentatious costume, according to police Capt. Amy Hurwitz, serves two purposes. “I don’t want them to get run over,” she told me. “But the costume is so bright, it’s like, how can you miss it?”

...State law requires drivers to stop for pedestrians who are entering a crosswalk. Ozol said that failing to do so can result in a citation that could cost the driver a hefty fine of as much as $400.

...Ozol would attempt to enter the crosswalk, and if a driver didn’t yield and allow him to cross, he would wave at two other officers parked nearby. From there, one of the two officers — one on a motorcycle, and the other in a standard squad car — would follow the flagged driver and pull them over.

The numerous tickets and the irresistible publicity have had the desired effect: drivers are slowing down.

Your humble blogger laughed, too, but I think that those who mock the chicken/Big-Bird costumes as a "stunt" have an anti-SF or anti-police agenda.

Kudos to SFPD for their creativity, and coming up with a strategy that appears to be working.

SF: Another Neighborhood Market Closes

(SF Gate photo)

Despite political leaders' assurances that San Francisco is cracking down on crime, homelessness, and drug use, one local business has given up:

After 35 years in business, a family-owned market in South Beach is closing its doors. Co-owner David Pesusic said high operation costs and mounting neighborhood crime were the driving factors.

Bayside Market, located at 120 Brannan St. near the Embarcadero, will cease operations on Sept. 13. Some of its 12 employees will be transferred to RJ’s Market near Fisherman’s Wharf, the business’s other location, but most will be laid off, Pesusic said.

In addition to inflation-fueled bills and declining foot traffic, the small grocery and deli has suffered from “rampant” crime, including near-daily shoplifting and three break-ins in the last couple years, Pesusic said. He blamed city officials for the increased crime, slamming law enforcement and city leaders for being unresponsive and overly permissive...

Law enforcement has taken hours to respond to petty crimes at Bayside, if they respond at all, Pesusic said. During two of the three break-ins the business faced over the past two years, he said police officers took over eight hours to arrive on the scene. And the market’s employees have stopped reporting shoplifting incidents, which Pesusic said occur at least 5-6 times a week, and sometimes up to five times in one day.

Crime in the city plunged in the first quarter of 2024, the Chronicle reported in April. From January through March, San Francisco saw decreases in every major crime category tracked by the FBI for its Uniform Crime Reporting Program, which includes homicide, rape, aggravated assault, robbery, burglary, arson, larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft.

But Pesusic said market employees have stopped reporting many crimes.

“We don’t even call 911 anymore because they don’t respond,” Pesusic said. “This isn’t fun, playing security-slash-police officer, trying to hold on to my inventory.”

In the absence of law enforcement, people deal drugs right outside Bayside’s doors and serial shoplifters operate with no consequences, Pesusic said.

“These guys think our store is a pantry where they can take whatever they want,” Pesusic said. “We’ve been spit at, we’ve had knives pulled on us, we’ve been called names.”

For a City that is hostile to automobile traffic, San Francisco doesn't seem to be helping residents shop, dine, and receive services without forcing them into their cars or using problematic public transportation.

Also...after the Federal jobs report was "revised" down by 818,000 from April, 2023 to May, 2024, I've stopped blindly accepting improvements -- such as San Francisco crime decreases--in government statistical measures without corroboration.

The Residential Streets of San Francisco

San Francisco, somewhat belatedly, is trying to attack homelessness, crime, and open-air drug use in this election year.

Addressing one subset of crime--prostitution--has been a low priority, especially since sex work has long been regarded as "victimless" (two consenting adults engage in a quid pro quo transaction where supposedly no one gets hurt).

Sex worker Rene, 20: “This is a good street. Quiet. Safe.
Way better than Oakland, where I live. I’ve got two kids to
support, and I can make $1,000 a night here." (Chron photo)

However, street prostitution has spilled over into San Francisco residential areas and has become a severe nuisance: [bold added]

A year after San Francisco officials put up bollards to deter sex work on Capp Street in the Mission District, residents say the activity hasn’t disappeared — it has just migrated a couple of blocks east.

Now, Shotwell Street is the Mission’s epicenter for the illicit sex trade, and all the noise and bumper-to-bumper traffic that comes with it. And frustrated neighbors are suing.

Hiding these problems or pushing them around “is not the solution,” said Ayman Farahat, the lead plaintiff in a lawsuit filed this past week in San Francisco Superior Court. The suit aims to force city officials to eliminate what the plaintiffs describe as a public nuisance.

...at Shotwell’s Saloon on 20th and Shotwell streets, owner David Hall flinched when asked about the nightly activity. “It’s horrible, horrible,” he said — so bad that he now closes the bar at midnight to protect his customers from solicitation or harassment.

Advocates of helping, rather than arresting, sex workers say pushing them off Shotwell might give the locals some relief like Capp Street got, but it won’t solve the larger problem. The area’s reputation as a lucrative sex-trade spot is so widespread it has drawn people from as far away as Seattle — which is where 21-year-old Maryanna was walking the streets until last week.

Customers up north were too edgy, she said, “and then a friend told me ‘There’s this place called Shotwell Street in San Francisco where business is good, you can make good money.’

“She’s right,” Maryanna said the day after she arrived in San Francisco, strolling Shotwell to scope out the night’s work. “I like it here. It’s more intense, but there’s good money. I’ll stick around awhile.”

...Lyon-Martin Community Health Services sends a van to Shotwell two nights a week, offering condoms and other sex-work supplies along with aid references. And though some locals resent that as enabling, Lyon outreach director Celestina Pearl says it is life-saving.

“Nobody is pro-trafficking, and yes we do want better lives for these women,” Pearl said. “But the better solution is not to vilify, stigmatize and criminalize. If people really want to solve the problem I would love to see them advocate for decriminalization of sex work, so these women can move indoors where it’s more dignified and safer and more peaceful for the residents.”

There is a substantial lobby that is (still) in favor of decriminalization, and with so many other problems San Francisco is unlikely to devote substantial resources to ridding the streets of prostitution. Besides, anyone arrested will be released because San Francisco is philosophically opposed to incarceration. The residents of Shotwell Street (a Zillow search values homes at more than $3 million) will have to live with the situation indefinitely or get the politicians to move it to another neighborhood.

Freeze Your Credit Now

(Image from Dealing with Dementia)

In early 2015 I read about how freezing one's credit can provide protection against one consequence of identification theft: a crook being able to open a new loan, credit card, or line of credit in my name.

I paid $10 to each of the three major credit-reporting agencies, Experian, Transunion, and Equifax, not to furnish credit reports to new lenders who come asking. It has been a minor hassle to unfreeze the accounts to obtain car leases and a new Apple Card, but it's been worth the $10 charge to sleep a little easier every night.

Credit freezes have cost nothing since 2018, so everyone should do it.

The good news is that freezing your credit is less of a pain than it used to be. It became free and simpler under a 2018 federal law following the massive Equifax breach the year before. But it does take a little more effort than locking your door...

Aside from making it a little less convenient to apply for a loan or credit card, freezing your credit costs nothing and has virtually no downside. It doesn’t hurt your credit score. Landlords and employers can still run a credit check. Existing creditors can increase your credit limit.

Making it harder to open new lines of credit might also be a form of financial discipline, since you won’t be able to sign up for buy now, pay later offers or store credit cards without first unfreezing your credit...

To freeze your credit, you must go online and request a freeze at all three of the major credit bureaus: Experian, TransUnion and Equifax. Reversing the process requires going through each bureau again.

To prove who you are, you will need to have a government ID, like a driver’s license, pay stubs and utility bills. Once set, it should take less than a half-hour to complete the process, says Miklos Ringbauer, a financial adviser in California. He encourages clients to keep their credit frozen and only lift the freeze for short periods, such as when they plan to apply for loans. After the initial setup, the freeze can be turned on or off with a few clicks, he said.

Freezing credit doesn't relieve one of the need to review one's existing bank, credit-card, stock-brokerage, retirement, etc. accounts for unfamiliar transactions, but it's a necessary part of a scam-protection program.

It's Not the Same as Lying to a Real Person

(WSJ illustration)

Yes, I have lied, and continue to lie, to websites. Like most others, I do it for my own protection. [bold added]

When you sign up with a social network, e-tailer or other service, you often have to give your name, email or phone number, and birthday. Some sites ask for a street address and more personal or private items, such as gender or mother’s maiden name.

The demands can feel intrusive, and giving sites all that information means that hackers could get access to it. So, a lot of people just sidestep the issue: They lie. When websites ask for information, they make up names, birthdays, street addresses and anything else you can think of.

“It’s a common technique for individuals to use false or pseudonymous contact information and birthdays and other personal details,” says John Davisson, senior counsel and director of litigation at the nonprofit Electronic Privacy Information Center. “So that in the event of a breach, or in the event that the company you’re providing information to wants to use it in some way, like targeted advertising or to sell to a data broker, you’re protected because the information is not high-fidelity information and not going to be of use.”

I give restaurant and retail websites fake identifying data whenever possible because the information doesn't seem crucial to the business that I want to do with them. If they catch me and kick me off, well, I can live without their product or service.

At financial institutions I have to be truthful in order to access the accounts. Although they have much more security than websites in other industries, they're not impregnable; therefore I check the activity and balances once a month.

The virtual, online world has brought many conveniences that also carry new risks. Only give out the minimum information necessary; websites are not your friend.

Once an Asset, Now a Liability

Proximity to San Francisco was once an asset but is now a liability to some Bay Area counties.

Headline: San Francisco's rotten reputation is killing tourism across the Bay Area [bold added]

According to the survey results, the city’s rotten reputation — regardless of whether this perception was valid or not — is actively deterring domestic travelers from even considering the rest of the region.

A striking number of respondents, nearly half in some cases, agreed that San Francisco’s woes have made visiting a county like Sonoma unattractive, even though it’s 45 miles away and vastly different from the city.

We unwound at the Kenwood Inn in Sonoma County

Fixing San Francisco's problems isn't as critical to the economic health of counties that are tech-based, but those dependent on travel and leisure, like Sonoma and Napa, have been particularly affected.

Speaking from personal experience, we've been very satisfied with overnight trips to Wine Country. Napa and Sonoma counties are well over an hour's drive from San Francisco, but both geographically (hot and dry during the summer) and culturally they feel much more distant. Here's hoping that they can endure the pain while San Francisco fixes itself.

Needing a Lot of Gold to Live in the Golden State

Retirement here is excellent
if you have enough money.

Bankrate says that California is the fourth-worst state in which to retire:

The analysis ranked states based on five categories: affordability, overall well-being, the cost and quality of health care, weather and crime. Affordability accounted for the largest share of a state’s ranking at 40%, while crime was the smallest, at 5%.

With this methodology, California ranked 47 out of the 50 states, largely due to its high cost of living. The state ranked 50th on the affordability scale, which took several data points into account, including cost of living, state and local sales taxes, property taxes and average cost of homeowners insurance, according to Bankrate.

The major reason that California ranks 47th is that it is the least affordable State, and affordability determines 40% of the score.

If one has a paid-up house and an adequate nest egg, California would rank much higher. Living on the Peninsula, we have access to excellent medical care within 30 miles (Stanford, Sutter Health, UCSF), the weather is mild all year, and crime and homelessness are controlled much better than in San Francisco and San Jose. Unless conditions worsen dramatically, these retirees will be staying put.

Just Say No

Two weeks ago I remarked upon the reason I no longer sign up for ID-theft services:

They always involve sharing with yet another company very detailed information, such as date of birth, social security number, bank account and brokerage account numbers, where one has lived for the past forty years, whether one owns or rents, etc. To me the risk of that new company being breached by a hacker or a crooked employee is greater than the benefit of that company's protection.

In other words information can't be stolen if it wasn't out there in the first place.

(WSJ image)

One's Social Security number is among the items that should be most zealously guarded. That, along with one's date of birth, allows access to one's medical and financial records over the phone. (I speak from recent personal experience.) However, many companies who have no legal necessity. such as tax reporting, to have the social security number of customers routinely ask for them. [bold added]

In many cases, there’s a simple solution to this: Just say no. According to privacy and security experts, in many situations we shouldn’t have to turn over our number. And if we refuse to give it, organizations often will back down.

“Skip it if you’re filling out something that isn’t a legal document, related to a loan or opening a financial account,” says Rachel Tobac, chief executive of SocialProof Security, which helps companies protect themselves from malicious hackers. “If somebody then comes up to you and says, ‘Unfortunately, it stinks, but we really need to get your Social Security number to verify you,’ you can simply ask them to access your records with some other form of ID and see what happens. Sometimes, they should be able to.”

I'm so old I remember when one's social security number was routinely printed below one's address on checks. Now writing a check itself isn't safe:

When you write a check, you're providing a wealth of personal information, including your name, address, bank account number, and signature. This sensitive data can be exploited by fraudsters for identity theft or other malicious purposes, putting your financial security at risk. ‍

Life is much better than it used to be, but not in every case.

Illegal Bookkeeping

Donald Trump, as is his wont, sucked all the air out of the news room tonight when he was found guilty of 34 felony counts by a Manhattan jury earlier today. (Mercury News early Friday edition front page, right.) If you need a summary, dear reader, here's a link to the Wall Street Journal.

Since everyone's pontificating on the story, your humble non-lawyer blogger will add a few observations.

Improper bookkeeping was the first crime on which the entire case hinges, and the Manhattan D.A. got to 34 felonies by counting individual checks as separate crimes all related to the same subject. From the D.A.'s summary: [bold added]

After winning the election, TRUMP reimbursed the Special Counsel [blogger's note: Michael Cohen] through a series of monthly checks, first from the Donald J. Trump Revocable Trust – created in New York to hold the Trump Organization’s assets during TRUMP’s presidency – and later from TRUMP’s bank account. In total, 11 checks were issued for a phony purpose. Nine of those checks were signed by TRUMP. Each check was processed by the Trump Organization and illegally disguised as a payment for legal services rendered pursuant to a non-existent retainer agreement. In total, 34 false entries were made in New York business records to conceal the initial covert $130,000 payment. Further, participants in the scheme took steps that mischaracterized, for tax purposes, the true nature of the reimbursements.

Were I a bookkeeper in the Trump organization I would have routinely classified all payments to lawyers as "legal expenses." That satisfies both accounting and tax requirements, while protecting my employer because the payments, the invoices, and supporting documents would fall under attorney-client privilege. So far there's been no assertion by anyone that a Trump accountant below the level of CFO would know that this was wrong.

The Manhattan D.A. asserted that the CEO (Donald Trump) and the CFO (Allen Weisselberg) knew that the payments to Michael Cohen should have been called "campaign contributions" but purposefully misclassified (or let the accounting system misclassify) them as legal expenses. This is the first crime that led to another unspecified crime (there had to be two crimes in order to make this a felony, else the purported legal-expense misclassification was at worst a misdemeanor on which the statute of limitations ran out years ago).

I'm a humble retired accountant who thinks it's crazy that an alleged accounting mistake on $130,000 could cause me to be thrown in prison seven years later, but again I'm no lawyer.

Sentencing is on July 11th, so this story will recede in a few days, then come back in early July. Meanwhlle we have a debate to look forward to, and possibly the naming of Donald Trump's running mate.