Voting in Person on Tuesday

2020 election: plenty of space

Foster City tore down its Recreational Center in the month before today's election. The timing was unfortunate, in that the spacious Rec Center was Foster City's sole in-person voting location. (The City began planning the $66 million construction project in 2017.)

Signs directed us to a room in City Hall, next to the fire station. The room was packed with voting booths; about half were occupied.

A volunteer asked me to "register"--she quickly corrected the phrase to "check in"--and I filled out a form with my name, residential address, and date of birth.

Another lady checked the information against her computer (no identification was requested), and directed me to an empty station.

I made my selections on the touchscreen, printed out the ballot, and dropped it into the box. The whole process took half an hour.

To be perfectly honest, I wouldn't have minded taking another minute to show a picture ID, but California is unlikely to reinstate that requirement in my lifetime.

I'll Have Some News With Those Jokes

Tyrus gesticulates

On the eve of an election which is again the-most-important-election-in-my-lifetime I'm tuning out all the reporting on the polls. Predictions range from a late break toward Harris to a clear-cut Trump victory. The most common poll result seems to be a statistical tie.

This week I've been watching Gutfield, Fox's late-night humor show. Tonight there was this nugget.

George "Tyrus" Murdoch: You are from the mean streets of Northern California.

Greg Gutfield: San Mateo.

Tyrus: You didn't play.

Gutfield: I cut my teeth at the Hillsdale Mall.

Tonight I learned that Greg Gutfield, like Tom Brady, Kris Kristofferson, and Merv Griffin, is another San Mateo kid who moved away and hit it big.

It's a pleasant surprise when you go to be entertained and pick up some knowledge in the process.

Happy Birthday, Again

On my birthday I knocked over the dietary guardrails and ate a week's supply of beef, dairy (clam chowder and ice cream), and sugar.

The penalty will be short-term only (I hope), but the memory of this outing with the family will linger for months.

When I was a child, I liked opening presents and being the center of attention. After I grew up, birthdays came and went for 40 years with little recognition. Now I'm beginning to appreciate them more...

Warren Buffett Thinks Taxes are Going Up, and So Should You

The Berkshire Hathaway shareholders' meeting in Omaha last May.

Continuing its liquidation of Apple stock, Berkshire Hathaway sold a lot more in the third quarter: [bold added]

The Omaha, Neb., company ended September with $69.9 billion of the iPhone maker’s shares, according to a quarterly report released Saturday. That means Berkshire sold about 25% of the 400 million Apple shares it brought into the third quarter. Berkshire held slightly more than 900 million Apple shares at the end of last year.

Even after the sales, Apple was Berkshire’s largest stockholding at the end of September. Apple has been a major bet for Berkshire, and one that paid off big time as tech-hungry investors drove the stock ever higher in recent years.

This year, Berkshire has slashed the position, though Buffett has continued to praise the company. He told an arena of shareholders at Berkshire’s annual meeting in May that Apple was “an even better business” than American Express and Coca-Cola, two other big holdings, and hinted that tax considerations might have played a role in the decision to sell some shares.

Apple shares are up 16% this year and trading near records.

Market commentators generally have explained Berkshire's actions to be the result of portfolio-risk reduction (overconcentration in one stock) and the perceived over-valuation of Apple stock according to several metrics. However, the impact of higher corporate income tax rates after 2025 should not be underestimated in Warren Buffett's decision-making. Higher tax rates have a direct, immediate negative impact on cash flow, while portfolio diversification increases portfolio returns probabilistically but are not guaranteed.

Unless the Republicans make a clean sweep of the Presidency and Congress, tax rates are likely to go up. And even if the Republicans do win, the Grand Old Party still has traditionalists who are fiscally conservative. Higher-income taxpayers would be foolish not to take into consideration the likelihood of higher tax rates after 2025, and some are taking action now.

Among the moves investors might want to make if they are convinced taxes are headed higher is to sell stocks. Selling now would lock in capital gains at the current 20% top rate.

Kamala Harris proposes a new top capital-gains rate of 28% for high earners. She is also proposing to increase the investment income surtax. Although Donald Trump has campaigned on extending the 2017 law, taxpayers are also worried taxes could move higher if he wins, because of the nation’s finances and economy...

Potential changes to capital-gains taxes, more likely with a Democratic sweep, are prompting some taxpayers to sell stock or shares in a business. In addition to the higher capital-gains rate for those earning $1 million or more, Harris proposes increasing the 3.8% investment income surtax to 5% for taxpayers with income above $400,000.

Your humble taxpaying blogger may make some income-accelerating moves, such as converting traditional IRA moneys to a Roth IRA before year-end, but will wait till next year to take action after the election smoke clears.

Crouching Lion

I always had a hard time envisioning the lion (Peebles/SFGate)

My father liked to load the kids in the family car and "drive around the island" on weekends. We would head to the North Shore and return via the single-lane highway on the Windward (eastern) side.

The 2-3 hour trip seemed interminable to this Island kid, and the Crouching Lion rock formation signalled that we were 30 minutes from Kaneohe, which was 30 minutes from central Honolulu.

60 years later I no longer rush through the route, choosing to stop and savor the moment:

Because we don't know when we will die,
we get to think of life as an inexhaustible well.
Yet everything happens only
a certain number of times,
and a very small number really.
How many more times will you remember a certain afternoon of your childhood,
some afternoon that's so deeply a part of your being that you can't even conceive
of your life without it.
Perhaps four or five times more, perhaps not even that.
How many more times will you watch the full moon rise?
Perhaps twenty. And yet it all seems limitless.
--Paul Bowles, The Sheltering Sky

(Krause/SFGate photo)

Now there's another reason to go to the Windward side. The Crouching Lion Restaurant has re-opened.

Perched above the ocean, the restaurant remains one of the few dining establishments available in the windward neighborhood. It has changed hands throughout the years because of financial challenges. Eventually, it closed down. It was a daunting prospect for potential investors because of its remote location. It also required a significant amount of investment to restore.

But it was a challenge that new owner Eddie Kim was willing to take on, and he purchased the property in 2022 for $3.7 million. “I wanted to try something new,” he says. “After years of being an educator, it was time for a new adventure.” The restaurant officially reopened this past May. While Kim is new to the restaurant business, his goals are simple: “I wanted to create a restaurant where I would want to eat at and bring family and friends.”

For decades I've noticed the cars parked outside but never stopped. It's time I did.

Pod Living in SF's Future

$700 buys you the top or bottom

If I were single and in my 20's, starting a job in San Francisco, and didn't care about having a social life, I would definitely consider renting a sleeping pod:

Brownstone’s model is different in that it’s renting out pods that are much smaller in size than a traditional bedroom and more akin to Japan’s capsule hotels, which keeps prices lower. It’s also not trying to program social gatherings for residents, as previous startups have sought to do.

The reported rent of $700 per month is a fraction of the cost of a studio apartment. Even if one can afford to pay much more for housing, being a pod person may appeal to finance or engineering types who work long hours in the office and just need a place to crash and wash up. (This recalls the 2016 case of the Google engineer who claimed he was able to build his savings by $6,000 per month by living in a truck.)

Your humble blogger claims to have no expertise in San Francisco commercial real estate, but pod living appears to be one solution to 1) high housing costs and 2) a way to attract some young highly paid professionals back to the City and rejuvenate its night life.

Converting excess office buildings to pod housing is much less costly than conversion to standard apartments and condos. The only holdup seems to be, unsurprisingly, San Francisco's disorganized, inefficient regulatory agencies:

But last year, city officials ruled that the pods violated building codes because Brownstone hadn’t gotten approval for the residential conversion and the building was a safety hazard, in part because the front door required a key to open from the inside.

James Stallworth, CEO of Brownstone Shared Housing, said the city’s planning department was unresponsive for around nine months as the company sought to bring the project up to code. He said, ultimately, only a few minor changes were implemented: A stove was installed in the communal kitchen, permits were approved for a shower that was installed and the front door access was remedied.

Dan Sider, the planning department's chief of staff, said claims that the department was unresponsive were “utter nonsense” and said Stallworth only filed an application in July after “months of noncooperation.”

Thirteen residents were allowed to continue living in the building during that time, but Stallworth said the city told Brownstone to stop accepting new residents. It’s now advertising the pods for rent again.

Dodgers Win World Series

The Los Angeles Dodgers won the 2024 World Series by defeating the New York Yankees in Game 5:

The Los Angeles Dodgers won their second World Series championship in five seasons, overcoming a five-run deficit with the help of three Yankees defensive miscues and rallying on sacrifice flies from Gavin Lux and Mookie Betts in the eighth inning to beat New York 7-6 in Game 5 on Wednesday night

Personal note; A typical "homer," your humble blogger takes an interest in Major League Baseball only when the San Francisco Giants have a contending team.

But this is one World Series that any boomer sports fan had to watch. We remember when baseball was head and shoulders above the NFL and NBA, and the '50's and '60's Yankees and Dodgers had some of the most famous players ever to play the sport. In 2024 the Yankees and the Dodgers had the most glamor and the fattest payrolls--along with their storied histories--and this World Series would demonstrate whether baseball still deserved a place at the top of the sports pyramid.

This is the World Series that Major League Baseball has been dreaming about.

The New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers are the most prestigious and popular franchises in the sport, loaded with enough star power to light up a small city. Shohei Ohtani is a once-in-a-century talent, now playing on the game’s biggest stage for the first time. Network executives are betting that it will be the most-watched Fall Classic in years.

“Baseball purists probably love it. I know MLB probably loves it. Fox definitely loves it,” Yankees pitcher Carlos Rodón said ahead of Friday’s Game 1. “There’s definitely some glamor to it.”

...There are five different players in this World Series—Ohtani, Judge, Freeman, Betts and Yankees slugger Giancarlo Stanton—who have won an MVP award, and that doesn’t even count injured Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw. Assuming they all appear in a game, it will be an all-time record.

One of those players has been named MVP in six of the past seven seasons, a streak that is going to continue with Ohtani and Judge, the presumed MVPs for 2024. It will make this the first World Series since 2012 and just the second since 1988 to feature both MVPs from that season.

The business assessments have to wait on the viewership ratings and other financial analytics, but from this fan's standpoint the 2024 World Series had many interesting and suspenseful moments that showcased why baseball is unique and fascinating.

A Good Sign

It's the first time this has happened in this boomer's life; I cracked open an egg with a double yolk.

Eggs with two yolks are fairly rare: statistically speaking, you might find them in just 1 of every 1,000 eggs. These eggs typically come from two types of hens: younger hens whose bodies are still just learning how to lay, and older birds who are experiencing the natural course of reproductive changes as they age.

In fact, many egg anomalies, such as blood spots, follow the same pattern. Like humans, hens' bodies tend to go through their most significant changes during "adolescence" and late into adulthood, so it's during these two periods of time in a flock's life that we tend to see a higher rate of unique and irregular eggs.

In cultures as different as Islam and China's, a double-yolked egg is a sign of good luck. It would be pleasing and surprising if there's some truth to that superstition.

Haleakala Ride

Looking down at the clouds from the summit (Volcano tours)

Another activity that I enjoyed in my younger days may be outlawed.

A popular Hawaii tourist activity, Maui downhill bicycle tours offer visitors an opportunity to see stunning landscapes on a ride down the winding roads of Haleakala with little physical exertion.

The activity, however, comes with some risk, as bicyclists share the road with vehicles, whose drivers sometimes get impatient, and downhill speeds may cause a rider to lose control.

Throughout its history, accidents have happened. Some have died. Earlier this month, Jeffrey Hins, a 68-year-old visitor from Arizona, was killed while biking down Haleakala as part of a group. The Maui Police Department said Hins crossed the yellow double-solid lane into the oncoming lane and crashed into a vehicle.

A new law addressing the safety of commercial guided and unguided bike tours, Ordinance 5439, just went into effect last year to alleviate concerns about safety and disruption to local traffic.,,“There’s been some in the community who want an outright ban on this type of industry operating on the road,” Mike Molina told KHON-TV. Molina, a former Maui County councilmember, championed the new law...

Haleakala downhill bicycle tours started in 1983. Over the next 20 years, the industry flourished, as it was a way for visitors to see Haleakala National Park at sunrise, then do a fun experiential activity. By 2007, about 90,000 visitors participated in bike tours annually, and revenues were estimated at $11 million...

Last year was the first time in 15 years that a new law was enacted to regulate the industry. Ordinance 5439 limits commercial tours to 10 riders, requires a minimum age of 15 and restricts guided and unguided tours to between Mile Marker 3 and Mile Marker 9.5 on Haleakala Crater Road.

Only a handful of companies continue to operate the downhill bike tours today and have altered their itineraries to accommodate the changes.

Depending on the operator, guided tours begin with a van ride up Haleakala Volcano to 10,000 feet to watch the sunrise inside Haleakala National Park. Then, the van brings the group down to around 6,500 feet, where cyclists launch after a safety briefing. Bicyclists then descend on a winding road of 29 switchbacks, while the van follows behind.

Ordinance 5439 cut some mileage from the tours by prohibiting specific areas of road and excluding the town of Kula. Operators have improvised by adding a second bike loop of the switchbacks, a van ride through Kula or lunch stop in Makawao, before continuing on the bikes to ride down to Haiku or Paia, where the tour ends.

I've done the summit downhill a number of times, the most recent occasion being a corporate retreat in the mid-1990's. We watched the sun rise over the crater, then cruised to Paia without stopping. It was early morning, traffic was light, and this weekend bicyclist used the brakes often. However, it is easy to see how increased auto traffic, combined with unskilled bicycle tourists, made serious accidents inevitable. Like many things in life, I'm glad I got to do the Haleakala ride before it got regulated away.

Kamala Harris Goes to Church

(Atlanta Journal-Constitution photo)

Kamala Harris has had trouble attracting Christian, particularly Catholic, voters due to her pro-abortion stance, so she began the day at a Black church in Philadelphia:

Vice President Kamala Harris started her Sunday at services at the Church of Christian Compassion in West Philadelphia. She told the largely Black congregation that the “next nine days will test us—they will demand everything we’ve got.”

“In this moment, we do face a real question: What kind of country do we want to live in? A country of chaos, fear and hate, or a country of freedom, justice, and compassion?” Harris asked, adding, “The great thing about living in a democracy is we, the people, have the choice to answer that question.” Harris is spending the day in the Philadelphia area as polls show a tight race in Pennsylvania, the nation’s largest battleground state.

Vice President Harris is also trying to counter the anti-Christian impression of her "you guys are at the wrong rally" riposte when hecklers shouted "Jesus is Lord" and "Christ is King." (Her campaign asserts that she was responding to cries of "Lies! Lies! Lies!").

Despite her warm reception by the congregation, I doubt her appearance changed anyone's mind.

Cancer: Too Much Information

We're lucky we live close to two research centers

This is troubling but not surprising: many oncologists can't stay abreast of new developments in cancer research. [bold added]

Cancer care is getting more complicated, thanks to a better understanding of cancer’s molecular underpinnings. Doctors now think of cancer as more than 100 distinct diseases, with cancers including lung, breast and bladder broken into subtypes.

That complexity is contributing to a divide in how patients fare depending on where they go.

Oncologists at magnet cancer centers that dot the U.S. develop expertise in just a few cancer subtypes. They draw from a rapidly expanding arsenal of new drugs for specific and sometimes rare cancers, including experimental ones that aren’t widely available.

But most people get treated locally to be near home and jobs. Local oncologists, faced with a range of cancers, can’t stay up-to-date on everything. The National Comprehensive Cancer Network updated its nearly 90 guidelines across cancer types more than 200 times in the past year.

A third of 120 patients who sought a second opinion at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center in New York had their treatment changed, a 2023 review found. MD Anderson Cancer Center in Houston said about one in five of its new patients are rediagnosed or restaged. Patients at academic centers have better outcomes for cancers including lung and multiple myeloma, studies show.

“It’s possible that one out of five patients in America is getting the wrong treatment,” said Dr. Peter WT Pisters, MD Anderson’s president.

I don't fault oncologists for finding it hard to do keep up with the research while treating patients by day. This is one obvious application for artificial intelligence, i.e., sifting through haystacks of information to find the needle that may apply to a patient.

Meanwhile, it behooves us all to stay alive as long as possible to give us the best chance for the science to cure the diseases that might kill us.

Dr. Bryant Lin

Bryant Lin teaching a class on Oct. 23 (Merc photo)

A member of our family has been seeing Dr. Bryant Lin at Stanford Health for years. Lately Dr. Lin has been unavailable. Now we know why; he has been battling lung cancer.

“If you look at the survival curves, you would give up. But you may be one of the lucky ones. You need to have optimism, tinged with reality,” said Lin, a beloved clinical professor and 50-year-old nonsmoker with two teenage sons who was diagnosed with advanced metastatic lung cancer earlier this year.

...Lin initially dismissed an annoying cough that started last spring. But it continued to worsen, causing him to wheeze.

“I’ve never had a puff of smoke of anything in my life,” he said.

In one week, he got stunning news. What he assumed was just a normal spring allergy was diagnosed as stage IV non-small cell cancer, which had already progressed to his bones and liver, with 50 lesions in his brain.

The diagnosis, about a month before his 50th birthday, “was so drastically different than what I was expecting,” he said. He was quickly hospitalized...

Lung cancer causes more deaths than any other cancer, with survival rates decreasing as the severity increases. While smokers make up the majority of those cases, 15% to 20% of people with lung cancer are non-smoking, like Lin. There is new evidence of an increase in the incidence of lung cancer in nonsmokers, although no one knows why. It is largely a silent disease that goes undetected for a dangerously long period.

The gene mutation that causes the cancer disproportionately affects those of Asian descent.

While not cured, Lin’s scans are strikingly improved after an innovative medicine called osimertinib, which targets his specific mutation. It blocks proteins that control cell growth and division. His cough is gone, and he is almost symptom-free...

With roles reversed, Lin says he is learning both how to be a patient and how to more fully be a doctor.

He urges doctors to not focus just on “medical science things” but the emotional and practical challenges of their patients. He urges patients to build tight community of support and deepen their relationship with their doctor, who can act as an advocate when things go wrong.

He’s not sure how much time he has left. “One year? Two years? Five years?” The class, he said, “is to give back to my community as I go through this.”

After receiving his terminal diagnosis, Dr. Bryant Lin continues not only to fight the disease but teaches classes at Stanford Hospital, including his own life experience in the content. None of us know with certainty how we might react to such news; character reveals itself in such moments.

SF Bay Area: the IncredibleTalent is Still Here

Using 192 laser beams, this Lawrence-Livermore apparatus ignited
a hydrogen fuel pellet the size of a peppercorn in 2022. The experiment
produced more energy than it consumed and showed fusion
energy was possible. (DOE/Chronicle)

In a man-bites-dog story an Austin tech startup is moving to the San Francisco Bay Area. [bold added]

Focused Energy, a startup specializing in laser fusion for clean energy, is relocating its U.S. headquarters from Austin to the Bay Area.

The German company announced plans on Wednesday to establish a state-of-the-art facility in the region, with an investment of $65 million. The facility will house some of the world’s most advanced lasers, crucial for developing commercially viable fusion energy, according to a press release.

Scott Mercer, CEO of Focused Energy, said that the move aims to leverage the “incredible pool of talent” in the Bay Area and benefit from established methodologies developed by scientists at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, which achieved net energy gain for the first time in December 2022...

With over $175 million in private and public funding, Focused Energy is one of eight fusion companies selected by the U.S. Department of Energy for support under its Milestone-Based Fusion Development Program.

The company has also received significant grants from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research to further its research and development initiatives.

Although numerous California companies such as Oracle, Tesla and Chevron have relocated their headquarters to Texas in recent years, this case illustrates the opposite trend.

The new Bay Area facility will enhance laser efficiency and establish a global supply chain necessary for scaling commercial fusion operations.

Once fully operational, fusion fuel equivalent to “three soda cans” will be capable of powering a city the size of San Francisco for an entire day, Focused Energy said.

Startups' main objective is to demonstrate their proof-of-concept. Cutting costs and red tape will be prioritized later, and the company can then decide if California is where it wishes to be planted.

Meanwhile, it's nice to know that the Bay Area hasn't yet dissipated its “incredible pool of talent” that attracts tech companies around the world. Your humble blogger still holds out hope that we can undo California's status as the worst-taxed, most woke, and most over-regulated State in the Union.

Gate Lice

(Image from wheelchair travel)

This airport problem is getting worse: airline passengers crowd the gate and board ahead of their assigned group. [bold added]

American Airlines is piloting a new system aimed at curbing the phenomenon known as “gate lice,” an industry term used to describe passengers who crowd the boarding area ahead of their assigned group.

The initiative comes in response to growing frustration around travelers who often disregard boarding instructions, leading to chaotic scenes at the gate.

While the new technology won’t speed up departures, it seeks to restore order to the boarding process, said the airline, the fourth largest operator out of San Francisco International Airport.

The system involves a warning sound triggered when passengers attempt to board outside their assigned group. When a boarding pass is scanned, an “audible alert” will notify the gate agent, displaying the passenger’s correct group number.

Many passengers rush to the gate out of anxiety or a herd mentality, despite having designated boarding groups, according to psychologists who have studied the “gate lice” phenomenon. But for those who genuinely need early access — such as families or travelers with disabilities — airlines say the prioritization system is essential. They also cite the need to protect the revenue they receive from those who have paid for these privileges.

One of the cultural differences that used to distinguish Americans from some, not all, Asian countries is that Americans would stand in line and wait their turn, while non-Americans would push their way through to get on buses, trains, and elevators. In the U.S. the willingness to wait is still around, but it began eroding a couple of generations ago.

Your humble blogger applauds the enforcement of the old norm, although the term "gate lice" is a bit mean. But I suppose the cultural norm against name-calling has eroded, too.

The Subtlety of Politics

For the past month I've been watching the candidates for national office give speeches and interviews. I've been impressed with the ability of J.D. Vance to respond to questions, hostile or otherwise, and show that he has more than a surface knowledge of the issues. Of the four candidates I think he is the most skilled at dealing with the press.

Below is an example, albeit during a friendly interview with Fox News' Dana Perino:



At the 1:25 mark he says "You can't just walk into a McDonald's and sign a W-9 and actually go onto the payroll." (The W-9 is the IRS form in which a new employee declares his Social Security Number to his employer.) The fact that Mr. Vance knew the correct form number and stated it when he didn't have to was impressive to this career accountant.

Additional comment on McDonald's: there's a ridiculous controversy about whether Kamala Harris worked at McDonald's. She claims that she did, and her detractors say that she didn't; neither side has produced evidence to support their position, and McDonald's has no record of her employment. (The Harris campaign believes that she worked during the summer of 1983 at the McDonald's on Central Avenue in Alameda, California.)

There's an easy way to check. Just ask the Social Security Administration:

We can give you copies or printouts of your Forms W-2 for any year from 1978 to the present. You can get free copies if you need them for a Social Security-related reason. But there is a fee of $62 per request if you need them for an unrelated reason. You can also get a transcript or copy of your Form W-2 from the Internal Revenue Service. However, state and local tax information isn’t available if you e-filed your tax return.

How tough would it be for Kamala Harris to request a copy of her 1983 W-2 from the SSA or IRS and put the matter to rest? The fact that she hasn't done so is a strong indicator that she did not work at McDonald's, but of course yours truly is just a simple accountant who knows nothing about the subtlety of politics.