Monday, May 19, 2014

Not a Myth

It's not a gambling myth: winning streaks do exist.
Using the power of the internet to round up a huge sample, the two researchers examined 565,915 bets made by 776 people on sports such as horse-racing and football. [snip]

The probability of a first bet winning was 48% and that of a follow-up winning again was 49%. After that, the streak took off. The third bet won 57% of the time. The fourth, if the third had won, won 67% of the time, the fifth, 72% of it and the sixth 75%.
The explanation:
as winners’ winning streaks increased in length they started choosing safer and safer odds, which led them to win more often, though less profitably.
This explains why your humble observer rarely goes home a winner--after a few wins he increases his bets, hoping to end with a big score. When you think you're playing with the house's money, you wind up losing it.

A lucky guy: Joe DiMaggio hit for 56 games in a row--a streak that has never been broken.
He also married Marilyn Monroe (SI photo)

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