Saturday, January 31, 2015

But Really

Pleasant surprise: AAPL appreciated 62% over 12 months
As a holder of Apple stock, we haven't posted about our investment since June. (For the past couple of years there was not much to write about.)

After Steve Jobs' death in 2011 the stock price first rose in anticipation because of the "amazing" future products rumoured in his biography, then dropped as the pipeline birthed mice.

Though our own investment profile had shifted to moderate-growth-with-income stocks such as Apple had become, we had grown disenchanted by Tim Cook's leadership and his long-running promises. Though we weren't going to liquidate the majority of our holding, expectations were low.

Much to analysts' surprise, the company has appeared to regain its mojo:
Apple sold 74.5 million iPhones in three months, more than most expected, and a profound amount of product to move. Even more amazing: According to data from Strategy Analytics, Apple regained lost market share, with the iPhone rising to nearly 20% of all smartphone shipments, the highest level since the end of 2012. Retaking lost market share is almost never accomplished in the fast-moving world of tech.

Apple shares did the reverse of Microsoft and jumped 6% the next day, ending the week at $117.16, after hitting a high of $120 on Friday.
The stock now sports a price-earnings ratio of about 15, in line with the S&P 500 market multiple. However, its dividend yield of 1.6% ($1.88 per share) is not appealing to income investors. On the plus side the iPhone is viewed as a luxury brand in fast-growing Asian markets, its Apple Pay and thumbprint identification technology provide a solution to both credit-card and mobile hacking, and the Apple Watch's prospects are not thought to be great, but could be.

But really, how fast can a company valued at $700 billion grow?

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