Saturday, December 19, 2015

Take the Cannoli

The Economist's December 12th prediction [bold added]:
If the Federal Reserve does increase interest rates on December 16th, very few investors will be taken by surprise. It will be the most discussed, most anticipated rate rise in history. [snip]

the Fed usually increases rates when the economy is steaming ahead and investors can ignore the adverse impact of monetary policy in favour of the good news. This time is genuinely different. Global equities have been flat since the start of 2014 (in dollar terms) and Treasury-bond yields have fallen slightly over the same period. [snip]

The more plausible risk is that America’s central bankers are acting too soon and the signs of a slowdown in the global economy may show up on their doorstep next year. If that proves to be the case, equities will suffer but Treasury bonds will do fine.
The immediate result from the December 16th rate hike:
THE BIRD IN THE HAND [about +2%] from boring bonds didn’t look so bad after the stock market did a second take on the Fed’s rate hike. An initial 1.5% relief rally in the S&P 500 on Wednesday gave way to an equal drop on Thursday and then another 1.8% plunge on Friday.
That's why I buy the Economist for its financial and economics analysis, and ignore its politics. (Example: "Two front-runners [Trump and Cruz] for the Republican nomination seem ready to harm America to win.")

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