Wednesday, January 30, 2019

PG&E Bankruptcy as a Demo for Socialists

We held PCG for 20 years and sold it in 2005 for $37.75. It's now at $13.
We've long subscribed to the Peter Lynch principle "invest in what you know"; for example, if you know, like and use Apple products, buy AAPL because many people may think like you and you are Everyman/woman/other, right?

Pacific, Gas, & Electric (PCG) is a hard company to "like", but as a utility its captive customers provide a steady stream of cash flow and dividends. In 2005, when PG&E's raw materials cost became more volatile and customers were beginning to look at alternative sources of energy, we sold our shares after holding them since the 1980's.

We got out 13 years early. Now PCG is about $13, a precipitous fall due to the calamitous Camp Fire that began on November 8th, not coincidentally the 12-month high ($49.42) for the stock. The utility declared bankruptcy on Tuesday. One doesn't need an MBA, or even a calculator to figure out why: [bold added]
The company, which says there will be no interruption in gas and electric service, listed assets of $71.4 billion and $51.7 billion in liabilities....

“If the liability is anywhere close to the $30 billion estimate, they will lose market share tremendously because customers can in essence walk, especially the commercial and industrial customers,” said Terry Boston, the former chief executive of PJM, the power grid that serves parts of 13 states from Virginia to Illinois.
The lawsuit damages, plus existing liabilities, exceed PG&E's assets. To preserve what's left, and to continue to provide service to its millions of customers, declaring bankruptcy was the prudent thing to do.

IMHO, the PG&E bankruptcy is a tremendous opportunity for the Progressives who run California to show how much better Socialism is than Capitalism. The Government could buy the company for a pittance. Then, without having to deal with noisome shareholders and the Board of Directors, they can:
  • force the complete conversion to alternative energy from fossil-fuel sources
  • keep rates at current levels (or lower);
  • repair its aging infrastructure to prevent more San Bruno pipeline explosions
  • pay their unionized workers a fair wage;
  • bury more power lines both to prevent forest fires and to protect the public from downed lines. Sure, it'll cost a lot:
    A new underground distribution line across most of PG&E’s territory costs about $1.16 million per mile, according to data filed with state regulators during the utility’s most recent general rate case. That’s more than twice the price of a new overhead line, which costs about $448,800 per mile. Most of the difference comes from the expense of digging a trench for the cable.

    Prices rise within cities, where the work is more complex. A 2015 San Francisco report found that recent costs for moving power lines underground in Oakland had averaged $2.8 million per mile, while similar work in San Jose had cost $4.6 million per mile.
    Accomplishing all of the above shouldn't be too difficult since a government entity need not show a profit or pay dividends.

    Actually---and I'm being serious now---if Socialists can accomplish all of the above without losing money, they would have a much better chance of convincing the public that they could own and operate the health care system.
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